Sun Belt · 3-4 · 1-2 CONF · ATS 3-4 · O/U 3-4
Arkansas State Red Wolves
HC Butch Jones (6th yr) · OC Garrett Altman · DC Griff McCarley
STARTS IN 12 PERSONNEL (4 OF 7) · BASE D 4-2-5 · SHOTGUN 96%
Sun Belt · 3-4 · 1-2 CONF · ATS 3-4 · O/U 3-4
Arkansas State
Red Wolves · HC Butch Jones (6th yr) · starts in 12 (4 of 7) · base D 4-2-5
Arkansas State
3-4 · 1-2 Sun Belt
4 losses now · CFP 0% in sims · CCG 2% · title 0%
Latest from the beat
ARKANSAS STATE · LAST 72 HLAST 72 H
All coverage →No verified updates in the last 72 hours.
Schedule & resultsSchedule
POSTGAME WE = HOW OFTEN THIS BOX SCORE WINS · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PREGAME WPCLOSING LINES · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PROJECTED LINEFUTURE LINES PROJECTED
Wk | Opponent | Result | Line | ATS | Net EPA | Off SR | Def SR | Win prob | Plays | s/play | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |   at Memphisat Memphis | L24–42 | +10.5+10.5 | L | −0.28 | 52% | 50% | 17% | 58 | 32.8 | |
| 2 |   West GeorgiaWest Georgia | W52–7 | −31.5−31.5 | W | +0.65 | 61% | 32% | 99% | 56 | 36.2 | |
| 3 |   at TCUat TCU | L7–31 | +19+19 | L | −0.49 | 33% | 46% | 6% | 54 | 32.7 | |
| 4 |   Kennesaw StateKennesaw State | W17–14 | −6.5−6.5 | L | +0.17 | 48% | 48% | 60% | 60 | 31.2 | |
| 5 |   at Louisianaat Louisiana | L20–23 | +5.5+5.5 | W | −0.11 | 43% | 56% | 43% | 54 | 28.9 | |
| 6 |   South AlabamaSouth Alabama | L49–56 | −3−3 | L | −0.12 | 64% | 49% | 36% | 70 | 29.1 | |
| 7 |   at Southern Missat Southern Miss | W23–13 | −5.5−5.5 | W | +0.12 | 37% | 32% | 72% | 76 | 30.9 | |
| 8 |   Georgia StateGeorgia StateNEXT | SAT 7:00 ESPN+SAT 7:00 | +2.5+2.5 | — | — | — | — | 47% | 130 | — | |
| 9 | BYE | ||||||||||
| 10 |   UL MonroeUL Monroe | NOV 7NOV 7 | −11.5 proj−11.5 | 76% | |||||||
| 11 |   at Coastal Carolinaat Coastal Carolina | NOV 14NOV 14 | +2.3 proj+2.3 | 44% | |||||||
| 12 |   at Louisiana Techat Louisiana Tech | NOV 21NOV 21 | +9.7 proj+9.7 | 28% | |||||||
| 13 |   TroyTroy | NOV 28NOV 28 | −1.9 proj−1.9 | 55% |
Success rate by down & distance
Formation & personnelFormation
PBP TAGS · 398 OF 402 PLAYS398 OF 402 PLAYS TAGGED
LookLook · usage | Usage | Pass %Pass | EPA/playEPA | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shotgun96% | 96% | 52% | +0.04 | 46% |
| Under center4% | 4% | 24% | +0.24 | 76% |
| No-huddle40% | 40% | 56% | +0.03 | 51% |
| Huddle60% | 60% | 48% | +0.07 | 45% |
In shotgun on 96 % of tagged snaps, passing 52 % of the time (+0.04 EPA a play; +0.24 under center). No-huddle on 40 %. Starts in 12 personnel in 4 of 7 games. Base defense 4-2-5 (6 of 7).
Next game
SAT 7:00 ESPN+ · CENTENNIAL BANK STADIUMSAT 7:00 ESPN+
TOP INJURY · OFFICIAL REPORT
% to play = 1 − P(out) · expected return not reported
Refs
JUDGMENT FLAGS OVER EXPECTED · 2026FLAGS OVER EXPECTED / G · 2026
Crews from | FOE / G | 90% range | Games | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Belt crews−0.5 to +0.3 · 44 games | −0.1 | −0.5 to +0.3 | 44 | NOISE |
| American crews— · 3 games | −0.4 | — | 3 | NOISE |
| Big 12 crews— · 2 games | +0.8 | — | 2 | NOISE |
| C-USA crews— · 2 games | −0.7 | — | 2 | NOISE |
| Mountain West crews— · 2 games | +3.5 | — | 2 | NOISE |
| ACC crews— · 1 game | +5.4 | — | 1 | NOISE |
| Big Ten crews— · 1 game | −0.9 | — | 1 | NOISE |
| MAC crews— · 1 game | +0.8 | — | 1 | NOISE |
| SEC crews— · 1 game | −1.6 | — | 1 | NOISE |
+ = more judgment flags on Arkansas State than expected · 2026 only: crews known for 7 of 8 games · no lean before 8 gamesJudgment flags only, 2026 · crews known for 7 of 8 games · + = more on Arkansas State than expected · no lean before 8 games
Key players
Unit statsEfficiency
OPP-ADJUSTED · RANK OF 138 FBSFBS RANK · OPP-ADJUSTED
MetricStat | Arkansas StateARST | RankRK | FBS avgVS FBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPA / play | +0.03 | 84th | +0.06 |
| Success rate | 45.3% | 35th | 42.3% |
| Explosiveness | 1.18 | 137th | 1.30 |
| Rush EPA / play | +0.02 | 107th | +0.07 |
| Pass EPA / play | +0.12 | 63rd | +0.11 |
| Passing downs SR | 31.1% | 68th | 31.1% |
| Line yards | 3.18 | 80th | 3.21 |
| Sack rate allowed | 5.8% | 93rd | 5.3% |
| 3rd-down conversion | 45% | 36th | 41% |
| Points / opportunity | 4.05 | 80th | 4.27 |
| Red zone TD rate | 67% | 55th | 63% |
| Seconds / play | 31.3 | 126th | 28.0 |