Georgia State vs Arkansas State

Georgia State

4-24-2 · 1-1 Sun Belt · ATS 5-1

7:00 PM ET

Sat, Oct 24 · ESPN+

Centennial Bank Stadium · Jonesboro

WIN PROB

53%

GAST

Arkansas State

3-43-4 · 1-2 Sun Belt · ATS 3-4

Spread: GAST −2.5; Open −1.5 · −115
Total: 58.5; Open 56 · o −112
Model line: GAST −1.1+1.4; Model total 57.5
Win probability: 53%
Projected score: 29.3 – 28.2; GAST – ARST
Projected plays: 130; FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play

Spread: GAST −2.5; open −1.5
Model: −1.1+1.4; GAST
Total: 58.5; model 57.5

Where the model sees the game

EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED

Where the model sees the game: unit gaps and their model impact
Unit vs defense	Offense gainsOff	Defense allowsDef	Plays	Model impactImpact
Georgia State passvs Arkansas State pass Dvs ARST pass DBIGGEST EDGE	28th+0.11	105th+0.07	30	GAST +7.9
Georgia State runvs Arkansas State run Dvs ARST run D	54th+0.02	112th+0.06	35	GAST +4.2
Arkansas State runvs Georgia State run Dvs GAST run D	107th−0.05	128th+0.10	31	ARST +2.2
PaceGAST 28.4 s · ARST 31.5 s a snap · avg 131 plays130 plays vs 131 avg	—	—	130	U 0.8
Arkansas State passvs Georgia State pass Dvs GAST pass D	63rd+0.01	71st+0.01	34	ARST +0.6

BIGGEST EDGE · GAST +7.9

Georgia State's passing game vs the Arkansas State pass defense

Georgia State gains +0.22 EPA a play on the pass (28th); Arkansas State allows +0.19 (105th). About 30 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.

OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.

OffenseArkansas State

ARST OFF

When Arkansas State has the ball

DefenseGeorgia State

GAST DEF

+0.0383rdEPA / play107th+0.13
45.3%34thSuccess rate66th42.0%
1.18136thExplosiveness130th1.40
+0.02107thRush EPA / play128th+0.17
+0.1263rdPass EPA / dropback71st+0.12
51.1%21stStandard downs SR75th47.9%
31.0%66thPassing downs SR39th29.5%
3.1880thLine yards89th3.21
13.4%67thHavoc rate38th15.7%
4.0580thPoints / opportunity84th4.19
67%55thRed zone TD rate74th62%

Arkansas State's offense rates higher in 8 of 11. Widest gap: standard-downs success rate (21st vs 75th).

OffenseGeorgia State

GAST OFF

When Georgia State has the ball

DefenseArkansas State

ARST DEF

+0.1340thEPA / play102nd+0.13
44.9%36thSuccess rate115th46.0%
1.3344thExplosiveness57th1.29
+0.0954thRush EPA / play112th+0.13
+0.2228thPass EPA / dropback105th+0.19
47.4%61stStandard downs SR97th49.5%
35.4%12thPassing downs SR109th33.0%
3.4138thLine yards130th3.58
12.2%40thHavoc rate135th9.5%
4.6746thPoints / opportunity99th4.37
78%12thRed zone TD rate119th74%

Georgia State's offense rates higher in 11 of 11. Widest gap: red-zone TD rate (12th vs 119th).

Tempo & tendencies

SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE

Tempo and tendencies, Georgia State and Arkansas State, season to date
Metric	GASTGAST	ARSTARST	FBS avgFBS
Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral	28.4	31.5	28.9
Plays per gamePlays per game	68.3	61.1	65.7
Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral	44.0%	51.3%	47.9%
Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS	−5.8%	+2.1%	−1.9%
Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral	37.7%	46.0%	44.6%
4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations	32%	21%	27%
Time of possessionTime of possession	30:09	30:30	30:11
Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position	Own 29.8	Own 30.5	Own 29.8

Neutral = WP 20–80%

All tempo →

Georgia State

SUN BELT REPORT · WED 8:08 PMNET −0.5% TO PLAYIMPACT

Out for season
Jordan Brown · OLJordan BrownOL · SRSeason
0%−0.1
Out
Curtis Deuce Walker · DBCurtis Deuce WalkerDB—
——
Out
Jamari Miller · WRJamari MillerWR · FR—
0%−0.3
Out
Matt Buron · TEMatt BuronTE · SR—
0%0.0
Out
Ryan Green · LBRyan GreenLB · SR—
0%−0.1
Questionable
Derrick Maxey III · SDerrick Maxey IIIS · JR—
79%0.0
Questionable
Eric Butler Jr. · LBEric Butler Jr.LB · JR—
79%0.0
Questionable
Eric Deuce Lee · DBEric Deuce LeeDB—
——
Questionable
Toby Bolton · CBToby BoltonCB · SR—
79%0.0

Arkansas State

SUN BELT REPORT · WED 8:08 PMNET −0.2% TO PLAYIMPACT

Out for season
Baker North · OLBaker NorthOL · JRSeason
0%−0.1
Out for season
Devin Spencer · RBDevin SpencerRB · JRSeason
0%0.0
Out
Nigel Nelson · LBNigel NelsonLB · SO—
0%−0.1
Questionable
Jahkori Johnson · DLJahkori JohnsonDL—
——
Questionable
Sultan Badmus · EDGESultan BadmusEDGE · JR—
79%0.0
Questionable
Terrance Grant · DLTerrance GrantDL—
——

OFS OUT FOR SEASON · O OUT · D DOUBTFUL · Q QUESTIONABLE · GTD GAME-TIME DECISION · AV AVAILABLE

IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)

Line movement

SUN 10:00PTotal 56.5 → 57.5STEAM · 5 BOOKS
SUN 10:17PTotal 56.5 → 57.5
MON 12:00ATotal 57.5 → 58.5STEAM · 5 BOOKS
MON 12:12ATotal 57.5 → 58.5

Steam = 4+ books in 5 min. RLM = line moves against the ticket majority.

Consensus market: open, now and model
Market · consensusMarket	Open	Now	Model
Spread GAST	−1.5	−2.5	−1.1
TotalSTEAM · 5 BOOKS	56.0	58.5	57.5
Moneyline GAST	−120	−135	−111

Bet splits

DRAFTKINGS · VIA DK NETWORK

GAST −2.5 · 60% / 94%ARST +2.5 · 40% / 6%

Over · 67% / 100%Under · 33% / 0%

DraftKings bettors, as of 3:00 AM ET. Top bar tickets, bottom bar handle. A 34-pt gap on GAST suggests larger, sharper bets.

Broadcast

ESPN+

CrewTBA

Conditions & crew

KICKOFF FORECAST

Clear: 77°
mph ENE: 5
Precip: 0%
Surface: Turf

RefereeCrew TBA

RestGAST 7d · ARST 7d

Injury report

Georgia State

Arkansas State

Line movement

Bet splits

Broadcast

Conditions & crew