- Spread
- GAST −2.5
- Open −1.5 · −115
- Total
- 58.5
- Open 56 · o −112
- Model line
- GAST −1.1+1.4
- Model total 57.5
- Win probability
- 53%
- Projected score
- 29.3 – 28.2
- GAST – ARST
- Projected plays
- 130
- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
- GAST −2.5
- open −1.5
- Model
- −1.1+1.4
- GAST
- Total
- 58.5
- model 57.5
Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Georgia State passvs Arkansas State pass Dvs ARST pass DBIGGEST EDGE | 28th+0.11 | 105th+0.07 | 30 | GAST +7.9 |
| Georgia State runvs Arkansas State run Dvs ARST run D | 54th+0.02 | 112th+0.06 | 35 | GAST +4.2 |
  Arkansas State runvs Georgia State run Dvs GAST run D | 107th−0.05 | 128th+0.10 | 31 | ARST +2.2 |
PaceGAST 28.4 s · ARST 31.5 s a snap · avg 131 plays130 plays vs 131 avg | — | — | 130 | U 0.8 |
| Arkansas State passvs Georgia State pass Dvs GAST pass D | 63rd+0.01 | 71st+0.01 | 34 | ARST +0.6 |
BIGGEST EDGE · GAST +7.9
Georgia State's passing game vs the Arkansas State pass defense
Georgia State gains +0.22 EPA a play on the pass (28th); Arkansas State allows +0.19 (105th). About 30 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
When Arkansas State has the ball
- +0.0383rdEPA / play107th+0.13
- 45.3%34thSuccess rate66th42.0%
- 1.18136thExplosiveness130th1.40
- +0.02107thRush EPA / play128th+0.17
- +0.1263rdPass EPA / dropback71st+0.12
- 51.1%21stStandard downs SR75th47.9%
- 31.0%66thPassing downs SR39th29.5%
- 3.1880thLine yards89th3.21
- 13.4%67thHavoc rate38th15.7%
- 4.0580thPoints / opportunity84th4.19
- +0.0776thEarly-down EPA / play115th+0.12
- 45.0%35th3rd-down conversion26th32.8%
- 15.3%66thStuff rate20th21.8%
- 5.8%93rdSack rate10th8.3%
- 67%55thRed zone TD rate74th62%
Arkansas State's offense rates higher in 9 of 15. Widest gap: sack rate (93rd vs 10th).
When Georgia State has the ball
- +0.1340thEPA / play102nd+0.13
- 44.9%36thSuccess rate115th46.0%
- 1.3344thExplosiveness57th1.29
- +0.0954thRush EPA / play112th+0.13
- +0.2228thPass EPA / dropback105th+0.19
- 47.4%61stStandard downs SR97th49.5%
- 35.4%12thPassing downs SR109th33.0%
- 3.4138thLine yards130th3.58
- 12.2%40thHavoc rate135th9.5%
- 4.6746thPoints / opportunity99th4.37
- +0.1734thEarly-down EPA / play89th+0.07
- 50.8%16th3rd-down conversion123rd46.2%
- 16.4%81stStuff rate130th11.1%
- 3.2%31stSack rate136th1.8%
- 78%12thRed zone TD rate119th74%
Georgia State's offense rates higher in 15 of 15. Widest gap: third-down conversion (16th vs 123rd).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | GASTGAST | ARSTARST | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 28.4 | 31.5 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 68.3 | 61.1 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 44.0% | 51.3% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | −5.8% | +2.1% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 37.7% | 46.0% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 32% | 21% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 30:09 | 30:30 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 29.8 | Own 30.5 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%