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2026 · THROUGH WK 8

American · 6-2 · 3-1 CONF · ATS 4-4 · O/U 5-3

Memphis Tigers

HC Charles Huff (1st yr) · OC Kevin Decker · DC Lance Guidry

STARTS IN 11 PERSONNEL (6 OF 8) · BASE D 4-2-5 · SHOTGUN 100%

Power rating3.945th
CFP odds3%—
PLAYOFFNEEDS TITLE→LONG SHOT
Proj. wins8.5of 12
Fan pulse—0 of 30 scored

American · 6-2 · 3-1 CONF · ATS 4-4 · O/U 5-3

Memphis

Tigers · HC Charles Huff (1st yr) · starts in 11 (6 of 8) · base D 4-2-5

Power rating3.945th
CFP odds · outlook3%—NEEDS TITLE→LONG SHOT
Proj. wins8.5of 12
Fan pulse—0 of 30 scored

Memphis

6-2 · 3-1 American

POWER RATING3.945th in FBS
CFP ODDS3%no change
PROJ. WINS8.5of 12 games
PLAYOFF OUTLOOKNEEDS TITLE→LONG SHOT

2 losses now · CFP 3% in sims · CCG 38% · title 19%

FAN PULSE—0 of 30 scored

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MEMPHIS · LAST 72 HLAST 72 H

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Schedule & resultsSchedule

POSTGAME WE = HOW OFTEN THIS BOX SCORE WINS · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PREGAME WPCLOSING LINES · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PROJECTED LINEFUTURE LINES PROJECTED

Memphis schedule and results
Wk
Opponent
Result
Line
ATS
Net EPA
Off SR
Def SR
Win prob
Plays
s/play
1at UNLVat UNLVW27–21+5+5W+0.0546%35%63%5925.2
1Arkansas StateArkansas StateW42–24−10.5−10.5W+0.2850%52%83%6229.2
2at Boise Stateat Boise StateL20–38+9.5+9.5L−0.3035%50%20%5124.6
3UT MartinUT MartinW45–21−33.5−33.5L+0.5659%25%93%7525.6
4BYE
5at Charlotteat CharlotteW59–8−19.5−19.5W+0.7463%29%100%8529.2
6UABUABW38–13−15.5−15.5W+0.5754%37%94%6623.8
7at Tulaneat TulaneL17–31−6.5−6.5L−0.1942%29%26%8122.9
8East CarolinaEast CarolinaW41–34−10.5−10.5L+0.1148%33%65%8023.3
9ArmyArmyNEXTSAT 8:00 ESPNUSAT 8:00−6.3 proj−6.3————65%——
10BYE
11at South Floridaat South FloridaNOV 12NOV 12+1.2 proj+1.247%
12at Navyat NavyNOV 21NOV 21−1.4 proj−1.453%
13TempleTempleNOV 27NOV 27−13.9 proj−13.980%

Success rate by down & distance

1st100%n 240%n 553%n 24433%n 3
2nd68%n 2855%n 5337%n 7547%n 19
3rd52%n 2546%n 2637%n 2720%n 10
4th50%n 4100%n 10%n 10%n 2

Formation & personnelFormation

PBP TAGS · 521 OF 525 PLAYS521 OF 525 PLAYS TAGGED

Formation splits
LookLook · usage
Usage
Pass %Pass
EPA/playEPA
SR
Shotgun100%100%45%+0.1849%
Under center0%0%50%−0.0450%
No-huddle91%91%46%+0.1950%
Huddle9%9%34%+0.0245%
StartersSTARTERS
116 of 8 games122 of 8BASE D4-2-56 of 8
116 of 84-2-5base D · 6 of 8

In shotgun on 100 % of tagged snaps, passing 45 % of the time (+0.18 EPA a play; −0.04 under center). No-huddle on 91 %. Starts in 11 personnel in 6 of 8 games. Base defense 4-2-5 (6 of 8).

Next game

SAT 8:00 ESPNU · SIMMONS BANK LIBERTY STADIUMSAT 8:00 ESPNU

vs ArmyLINE—MODEL−6.3WP65%

Refs

JUDGMENT FLAGS OVER EXPECTED · 2026FLAGS OVER EXPECTED / G · 2026

Judgment flags over expected by crew conference
Crews from
FOE / G
90% range
Games
Read
American crews−0.6 to +0.2 · 46 games−0.2−0.6 to +0.246NOISE
Sun Belt crews— · 4 games+1.0—4NOISE
ACC crews— · 2 games+0.8—2NOISE
Mountain West crews— · 2 games+1.3—2NOISE
Pac-12 crews— · 2 games+1.4—2NOISE
C-USA crews— · 1 game+1.6—1NOISE
SEC crews— · 1 game−0.8—1NOISE
FRIENDLIEST CREWFRIENDLIESTSteven Anderson−1.7 / g · 3 games · noise−1.7 / g · 3 g · noise
TOUGHEST CREWTOUGHESTCharles Lamertina+1.4 / g · 5 games · noise+1.4 / g · 5 g · noise

+ = more judgment flags on Memphis than expected · 2026 only: crews known for 8 of 9 games · no lean before 8 gamesJudgment flags only, 2026 · crews known for 8 of 9 games · + = more on Memphis than expected · no lean before 8 games

Key players

Unit statsEfficiency

OPP-ADJUSTED · RANK OF 138 FBSFBS RANK · OPP-ADJUSTED

Memphis offense statistics
MetricStat
MemphisMEM
RankRK
FBS avgVS FBS
EPA / play+0.1339th+0.06
Success rate46.5%24th42.3%
Explosiveness1.3060th1.30
Rush EPA / play+0.1236th+0.07
Pass EPA / play+0.2031st+0.11
Passing downs SR32.9%33rd31.1%
Line yards3.699th3.21
Sack rate allowed5.1%76th5.3%
3rd-down conversion42%61st41%
Points / opportunity4.4264th4.27
Red zone TD rate51%118th63%
Seconds / play24.819th28.0