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SAT 8:00 · ESPNU · MEMPHIS
Army
5-25-2 · 4-1 American · ATS 3-3-1
8:00 PM ET
Sat, Oct 31 · ESPNU
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium · Memphis
WIN PROB
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Memphis
6-26-2 · 3-1 American · ATS 4-4
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Total
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Model line
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Win probability
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Projected score
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Projected plays
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FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
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Model
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Total
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Where the model sees the game

EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED

Where the model sees the game: unit gaps and their model impact
Unit vs defenseOffense gainsOffDefense allowsDefPlaysModel impactImpact
Army runvs Memphis run Dvs MEM run DBIGGEST EDGE
1st+0.15109th+0.0656ARMY +16.9
Memphis passvs Army pass Dvs ARMY pass D
31st+0.09118th+0.1131MEM +9.0
Memphis runvs Army run Dvs ARMY run D
37th+0.05122nd+0.0937MEM +7.6
Army passvs Memphis pass Dvs MEM pass D
53rd+0.0337th−0.0612MEM +0.6

BIGGEST EDGE · ARMY +16.9

Army's run game vs the Memphis run defense

Army gains +0.22 EPA a play on the run (1st); Memphis allows +0.13 (109th). About 56 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.

OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.

OffenseMemphis
MEM OFF

When Memphis has the ball

DefenseArmy
ARMY DEF
  • +0.1338thEPA / play133rd+0.22
  • 46.4%25thSuccess rate126th47.2%
  • 1.3060thExplosiveness116th1.36
  • +0.1237thRush EPA / play122nd+0.16
  • +0.2031stPass EPA / dropback118th+0.23
  • 51.2%20thStandard downs SR100th49.6%
  • 32.8%32ndPassing downs SR134th36.0%
  • 3.698thLine yards117th3.40
  • 12.4%45thHavoc rate127th11.4%
  • 4.4264thPoints / opportunity78th4.13
  • 51%118thRed zone TD rate108th69%

Memphis's offense rates higher in 10 of 11. Widest gap: line yards (8th vs 117th).

OffenseArmy
ARMY OFF

When Army has the ball

DefenseMemphis
MEM DEF
  • +0.2118thEPA / play76th+0.08
  • 47.8%14thSuccess rate43rd40.4%
  • 1.20129thExplosiveness135th1.42
  • +0.221stRush EPA / play109th+0.13
  • +0.1453rdPass EPA / dropback37th+0.05
  • 53.2%9thStandard downs SR64th46.9%
  • 31.2%60thPassing downs SR8th27.6%
  • 3.5322ndLine yards100th3.28
  • 8.1%5thHavoc rate78th14.1%
  • 4.7343rdPoints / opportunity24th3.29
  • 75%14thRed zone TD rate40th52%

Army's offense rates higher in 8 of 11. Widest gap: rush EPA (1st vs 109th).

Tempo & tendencies

SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE

Tempo and tendencies, Army and Memphis, season to date
MetricARMYARMYMEMMEMFBS avgFBS
Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral34.925.428.9
Plays per gamePlays per game64.469.965.7
Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral15.7%45.2%47.9%
Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS−32.8%−4.7%−1.9%
Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral14.1%40.6%44.6%
4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations38%20%27%
Time of possessionTime of possession34:2429:4030:11
Avg starting field positionAvg starting field positionOwn 30.9Own 28.4Own 29.8

Neutral = WP 20–80%

All tempo →

Injury report

AMERICAN AVAILABILITY · DUE ~SAT · IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)

Army

AMERICAN REPORT EXPECTED ~SAT (GD)% TO PLAYIMPACT
No report yetAMERICAN REPORT EXPECTED ~SAT (GD)
Week 8 game-day report6 OUT FOR SEASON · 7 OUT · 2 QUESTIONABLE

Memphis

AMERICAN REPORT EXPECTED ~SAT (GD)% TO PLAYIMPACT
No report yetAMERICAN REPORT EXPECTED ~SAT (GD)
Week 8 game-day report2 OUT FOR SEASON · 4 OUT

Broadcast

ESPNU
CrewTBA

Conditions & crew

KICKOFF FORECAST

Temp
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mph
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Surface
Turf
RefereeCrew TBA
RestARMY 8d · MEM 9d