Army
5-25-2 · 4-1 American · ATS 3-3-1
8:00 PM ET
Sat, Oct 31 · ESPNU
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium · Memphis
WIN PROB
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Memphis
6-26-2 · 3-1 American · ATS 4-4
- Spread
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- Total
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- Model line
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- Win probability
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- Projected score
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- Projected plays
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- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
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- Model
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- Total
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Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Army runvs Memphis run Dvs MEM run DBIGGEST EDGE | 1st+0.15 | 109th+0.06 | 56 | ARMY +16.9 |
  Memphis passvs Army pass Dvs ARMY pass D | 31st+0.09 | 118th+0.11 | 31 | MEM +9.0 |
| Memphis runvs Army run Dvs ARMY run D | 37th+0.05 | 122nd+0.09 | 37 | MEM +7.6 |
| Army passvs Memphis pass Dvs MEM pass D | 53rd+0.03 | 37th−0.06 | 12 | MEM +0.6 |
BIGGEST EDGE · ARMY +16.9
Army's run game vs the Memphis run defense
Army gains +0.22 EPA a play on the run (1st); Memphis allows +0.13 (109th). About 56 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
OffenseMemphis
MEM OFFWhen Memphis has the ball
DefenseArmy
ARMY DEF- +0.1338thEPA / play133rd+0.22
- 46.4%25thSuccess rate126th47.2%
- 1.3060thExplosiveness116th1.36
- +0.1237thRush EPA / play122nd+0.16
- +0.2031stPass EPA / dropback118th+0.23
- 51.2%20thStandard downs SR100th49.6%
- 32.8%32ndPassing downs SR134th36.0%
- 3.698thLine yards117th3.40
- 12.4%45thHavoc rate127th11.4%
- 4.4264thPoints / opportunity78th4.13
- +0.2415thEarly-down EPA / play132nd+0.22
- 42.1%60th3rd-down conversion123rd46.2%
- 12.8%31stStuff rate99th14.6%
- 5.1%76thSack rate132nd2.3%
- 51%118thRed zone TD rate108th69%
Memphis's offense rates higher in 14 of 15. Widest gap: early-down EPA (15th vs 132nd).
OffenseArmy
ARMY OFFWhen Army has the ball
DefenseMemphis
MEM DEF- +0.2118thEPA / play76th+0.08
- 47.8%14thSuccess rate43rd40.4%
- 1.20129thExplosiveness135th1.42
- +0.221stRush EPA / play109th+0.13
- +0.1453rdPass EPA / dropback37th+0.05
- 53.2%9thStandard downs SR64th46.9%
- 31.2%60thPassing downs SR8th27.6%
- 3.5322ndLine yards100th3.28
- 8.1%5thHavoc rate78th14.1%
- 4.7343rdPoints / opportunity24th3.29
- +0.2024thEarly-down EPA / play54th+0.01
- 48.8%22nd3rd-down conversion24th32.4%
- 10.5%11thStuff rate115th13.1%
- 4.2%47thSack rate13th8.2%
- 75%14thRed zone TD rate40th52%
Army's offense rates higher in 11 of 15. Widest gap: rush EPA (1st vs 109th).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | ARMYARMY | MEMMEM | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 34.9 | 25.4 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 64.4 | 69.9 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 15.7% | 45.2% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | −32.8% | −4.7% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 14.1% | 40.6% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 38% | 20% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 34:24 | 29:40 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 30.9 | Own 28.4 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%