reportedThe Daily Aztec sports desk@by Iain Henderson, Senior Staff Reporter
1dUnconfirmed tip: Sutton could play against Colorado State on Saturday.
Lucky Sutton · RBCHECKING
Pac-12 · 3-4 · 2-1 CONF · ATS 2-5 · O/U 5-2
San Diego State Aztecs
HC Sean Lewis (3rd yr) · OC Matt Johnson · DC Demetrius Sumler
STARTS IN 11 PERSONNEL (5 OF 5) · BASE D 4-2-5 · SHOTGUN 97%
Power rating−7.8113th
CFP odds0%—
PLAYOFFNEEDS TITLE→OUT
Proj. wins4.7of 11
Fan pulse—0 of 30 scored
Pac-12 · 3-4 · 2-1 CONF · ATS 2-5 · O/U 5-2
San Diego State
Aztecs · HC Sean Lewis (3rd yr) · starts in 11 (5 of 5) · base D 4-2-5
Power rating−7.8113th
CFP odds · outlook0%—NEEDS TITLE→OUT
Proj. wins4.7of 11
Fan pulse—0 of 30 scored
San Diego State
3-4 · 2-1 Pac-12
POWER RATING−7.8113th in FBS
CFP ODDS0%no change
PROJ. WINS4.7of 11 games
PLAYOFF OUTLOOKNEEDS TITLE→OUT
4 losses now · CFP 0% in sims · CCG 10% · title 2%
FAN PULSE—0 of 30 scored
Latest from the beat
SAN DIEGO STATE · LAST 72 HLAST 72 H
All coverage →reportedThe Daily Aztec sports desk@by Iain Henderson, Senior Staff Reporter
1dUnconfirmed tip: Kinnard could play against Colorado State on Saturday.
Javion Kinnard · RBCHECKING
Schedule & resultsSchedule
POSTGAME WE = HOW OFTEN THIS BOX SCORE WINS · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PREGAME WPCLOSING LINES · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PROJECTED LINEFUTURE LINES PROJECTED
Wk | Opponent | Result | Line | ATS | Net EPA | Off SR | Def SR | Win prob | Plays | s/play | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |   Portland StatePortland State | W53–20 | −39.5−39.5 | L | +0.38 | 43% | 43% | 93% | 62 | 25.0 | |
| 2 |   at UCLAat UCLA | L10–28 | +13.5+13.5 | L | −0.55 | 31% | 45% | 9% | 55 | 27.5 | |
| 3 |   James MadisonJames Madison | L13–26 | −3−3 | L | −0.22 | 31% | 47% | 29% | 77 | 24.5 | |
| 4 |   at Toledoat Toledo | L16–41 | +3+3 | L | −0.88 | 23% | 45% | 10% | 67 | 23.6 | |
| 5 |   Texas StateTexas State | W31–29 | +10+10 | W | −0.24 | 37% | 48% | 56% | 51 | 21.7 | |
| 6 |   at Oregon Stateat Oregon State | L14–66 | +14.5+14.5 | L | −0.84 | 30% | 65% | 0% | 47 | 22.1 | |
| 7 |   Fresno StateFresno State | W26–23 | +6.5+6.5 | W | +0.11 | 43% | 45% | 54% | 61 | 27.1 | |
| 8 |   at Colorado Stateat Colorado StateNEXT | SAT 6:30 CWSAT 6:30 | −1.5−1.5 | — | — | — | — | 49% | 128 | — | |
| 9 |   Washington StateWashington State | OCT 31OCT 31 | −1.2 proj−1.2 | 53% | |||||||
| 10 | BYE | ||||||||||
| 11 |   Utah StateUtah State | NOV 14NOV 14 | −1.9 proj−1.9 | 55% | |||||||
| 12 |   at Boise Stateat Boise State | NOV 21NOV 21 | +18.2 proj+18.2 | 13% |
Success rate by down & distance
1st60%n 5—n 038%n 14040%n 5
2nd57%n 1430%n 2328%n 5820%n 20
3rd50%n 1819%n 1632%n 3125%n 12
4th29%n 7—n 00%n 2—n 0
Formation & personnelFormation
PBP TAGS · 349 OF 351 PLAYS349 OF 351 PLAYS TAGGED
LookLook · usage | Usage | Pass %Pass | EPA/playEPA | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shotgun97% | 97% | 44% | −0.18 | 34% |
| Under center3% | 3% | 33% | −0.58 | 33% |
| No-huddle90% | 90% | 44% | −0.18 | 34% |
| Huddle10% | 10% | 44% | −0.29 | 31% |
StartersSTARTERS
115 of 5 gamesBASE D4-2-55 of 5
115 of 54-2-5base D · 5 of 5
In shotgun on 97 % of tagged snaps, passing 44 % of the time (−0.18 EPA a play; −0.58 under center). No-huddle on 90 %. Starts in 11 personnel in 5 of 5 games. Base defense 4-2-5 (5 of 5).
Next game
SAT 6:30 CW · CANVAS STADIUMSAT 6:30 CW
TOP INJURY · OFFICIAL REPORT
P
Javion KinnardRB · SO
RB · top injuryNEXT UPJ. LucasΔ −0.21 EPA/play
79%TO PLAY
−0.6IMPACT PTS
% to play = 1 − P(out) · expected return not reported
LINE · MODEL · WPIMPACT −0.6 PTS
Refs
JUDGMENT FLAGS OVER EXPECTED · 2026FLAGS OVER EXPECTED / G · 2026
Crews from | FOE / G | 90% range | Games | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mountain West crews−0.6 to +0.4 · 19 games | −0.1 | −0.6 to +0.4 | 19 | NOISE |
| Pac-12 crews−0.7 to +0.5 · 8 games | −0.1 | −0.7 to +0.5 | 8 | NOISE |
| Big 12 crews— · 5 games | −1.1 | — | 5 | NOISE |
| MAC crews— · 3 games | +1.4 | — | 3 | NOISE |
| ACC crews— · 1 game | +2.3 | — | 1 | NOISE |
| American crews— · 1 game | +4.1 | — | 1 | NOISE |
FRIENDLIEST CREWFRIENDLIESTCal McNeill−1.6 / g · 3 games · noise−1.6 / g · 3 g · noise
TOUGHEST CREWTOUGHESTKenneth Ray−1.0 / g · 6 games · noise−1.0 / g · 6 g · noise
+ = more judgment flags on San Diego State than expected · 2026 only: crews known for 6 of 8 games · no lean before 8 gamesJudgment flags only, 2026 · crews known for 6 of 8 games · + = more on San Diego State than expected · no lean before 8 games
Key players
QB · #4 · SRJayden Denegal−0.20EPA/dropback · 143rdCPOE−6.3aDOT9.6Sack %5.1%RB · #21 · SOJavion Kinnard44.4%rush SR · 116thYards per carry5.3Explosive rate6.2%Rush EPA+0.06WR · #13 · SRNathan Acevedo1.01YPTPA · 316thTarget share17.7%EPA / target+0.04aDOT6.5DL · #59 · JRDjibril Rahman6havoc plays · 84thTFL6Sacks4Forced fumbles0
Unit statsEfficiency
OPP-ADJUSTED · RANK OF 138 FBSFBS RANK · OPP-ADJUSTED
MetricStat | San Diego StateSDSU | RankRK | FBS avgVS FBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPA / play | −0.14 | 136th | +0.06 |
| Success rate | 35.6% | 133rd | 42.3% |
| Explosiveness | 1.27 | 93rd | 1.30 |
| Rush EPA / play | −0.05 | 130th | +0.07 |
| Pass EPA / play | −0.09 | 134th | +0.11 |
| Passing downs SR | 27.4% | 126th | 31.1% |
| Line yards | 2.95 | 111th | 3.21 |
| Sack rate allowed | 4.6% | 55th | 5.3% |
| 3rd-down conversion | 32% | 122nd | 41% |
| Points / opportunity | 3.62 | 113th | 4.27 |
| Red zone TD rate | 61% | 80th | 63% |
| Seconds / play | 24.6 | 12th | 28.0 |