reportedSpartan Daily sports desk@Haddy Barghouti, Senior Staff Writer
1dUnconfirmed tip on Bates’s status against Nevada on Saturday.
Jabari Bates · RBCHECKING
Mountain West · 4-3 · 2-1 CONF · ATS 4-3 · O/U 1-6
San José State Spartans
HC Ken Niumatalolo (3rd yr) · OC Craig Stutzmann · DC Bojay Filimoeatu
STARTS IN 10 PERSONNEL (4 OF 6) · BASE D 3-4-4 · SHOTGUN 100%
Power rating−9.4120th
CFP odds0%—
PLAYOFFNEEDS TITLE→OUT
Proj. wins6.1of 13
Fan pulse—1 of 30 scored
Mountain West · 4-3 · 2-1 CONF · ATS 4-3 · O/U 1-6
San José State
Spartans · HC Ken Niumatalolo (3rd yr) · starts in 10 (4 of 6) · base D 3-4-4
Power rating−9.4120th
CFP odds · outlook0%—NEEDS TITLE→OUT
Proj. wins6.1of 13
Fan pulse—1 of 30 scored
San José State
4-3 · 2-1 Mountain West
POWER RATING−9.4120th in FBS
CFP ODDS0%no change
PROJ. WINS6.1of 13 games
PLAYOFF OUTLOOKNEEDS TITLE→OUT
3 losses now · CFP 0% in sims · CCG 4% · title 1%
FAN PULSE—1 of 30 scored
Latest from the beat
SAN JOSÉ STATE · LAST 72 HLAST 72 H
All coverage →reportedSpartan Daily sports desk@Haddy Barghouti, Senior Staff Writer
1dUnconfirmed tip: Weaver could be questionable against Nevada on Saturday.
Luke Weaver · QBCHECKING
Schedule & resultsSchedule
POSTGAME WE = HOW OFTEN THIS BOX SCORE WINS · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PREGAME WPCLOSING LINES · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PROJECTED LINEFUTURE LINES PROJECTED
Wk | Opponent | Result | Line | ATS | Net EPA | Off SR | Def SR | Win prob | Plays | s/play | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |   at USCat USC | L26–42 | +37.5+37.5 | W | −0.65 | 31% | 70% | 12% | 56 | 25.8 | |
| 1 |   at Eastern Michiganat Eastern Michigan | W27–21 | +1.5+1.5 | W | +0.39 | 36% | 29% | 87% | 73 | 23.2 | |
| 2 |   Cal PolyCal Poly | W30–20 | −21.5−21.5 | L | +0.08 | 49% | 48% | 67% | 78 | 23.6 | |
| 3 |   Fresno StateFresno State | L10–26 | +4+4 | L | −0.20 | 31% | 33% | 28% | 70 | 23.1 | |
| 4 | BYE | ||||||||||
| 5 |   at Hawai'iat Hawai'i | W20–16 | +3+3 | W | −0.03 | 37% | 43% | 63% | 62 | 27.3 | |
| 6 |   WyomingWyoming | L13–16 | −4.5−4.5 | L | −0.09 | 45% | 43% | 35% | 66 | 21.2 | |
| 7 |   at UTEPat UTEP | W24–11 | −6.5−6.5 | W | +0.16 | 43% | 40% | 78% | 58 | 26.1 | |
| 8 |   at Nevadaat NevadaNEXT | SAT 5:00 MW+SAT 5:00 | +6.5+6.5 | — | — | — | — | 39% | 129 | — | |
| 9 |   New MexicoNew Mexico | OCT 31OCT 31 | +14.1 proj+14.1 | 20% | |||||||
| 10 |   Northern IllinoisNorthern Illinois | NOV 7NOV 7 | −10.3 proj−10.3 | 73% | |||||||
| 11 |   at Air Forceat Air Force | NOV 14NOV 14 | +13.4 proj+13.4 | 21% | |||||||
| 12 |   UNLVUNLV | NOV 21NOV 21 | +8.7 proj+8.7 | 30% | |||||||
| 13 |   North Dakota StateNorth Dakota State | NOV 27NOV 27 | +11.1 proj+11.1 | 25% |
Success rate by down & distance
1st0%n 133%n 342%n 1678%n 12
2nd79%n 1955%n 3832%n 7525%n 16
3rd74%n 1935%n 2320%n 357%n 14
4th63%n 8100%n 10%n 10%n 1
Formation & personnelFormation
PBP TAGS · 433 OF 433 PLAYS433 OF 433 PLAYS TAGGED
LookLook · usage | Usage | Pass %Pass | EPA/playEPA | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shotgun100% | 100% | 52% | +0.01 | 40% |
| Under center0% | 0% | 0% | +1.52 | 100% |
| No-huddle85% | 85% | 52% | +0.01 | 40% |
| Huddle15% | 15% | 52% | +0.05 | 38% |
StartersSTARTERS
104 of 6 games112 of 6BASE D3-4-43 of 6
104 of 63-4-4base D · 3 of 6
In shotgun on 100 % of tagged snaps, passing 52 % of the time (+0.01 EPA a play; +1.52 under center). No-huddle on 85 %. Starts in 10 personnel in 4 of 6 games. Base defense 3-4-4 (3 of 6).
Next game
SAT 5:00 MW+ · MACKAY STADIUMSAT 5:00 MW+
TOP INJURY · OFFICIAL REPORT
Q
Cooper HochWR · JR
WR · top injuryNEXT UPD. McKenzieΔ −0.29 EPA/play
79%TO PLAY
−0.3IMPACT PTS
% to play = 1 − P(out) · expected return not reported
LINE · MODEL · WPIMPACT −0.3 PTS
Refs
JUDGMENT FLAGS OVER EXPECTED · 2026FLAGS OVER EXPECTED / G · 2026
Crews from | FOE / G | 90% range | Games | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mountain West crews−0.6 to +0.4 · 27 games | −0.1 | −0.6 to +0.4 | 27 | NOISE |
| MAC crews— · 3 games | +2.2 | — | 3 | NOISE |
| Pac-12 crews— · 3 games | +0.1 | — | 3 | NOISE |
| American crews— · 1 game | −1.4 | — | 1 | NOISE |
| Big 12 crews— · 1 game | +0.9 | — | 1 | NOISE |
| Big Ten crews— · 1 game | −1.9 | — | 1 | NOISE |
| C-USA crews— · 1 game | +1.4 | — | 1 | NOISE |
| SEC crews— · 1 game | −1.8 | — | 1 | NOISE |
| Sun Belt crews— · 1 game | −2.4 | — | 1 | NOISE |
FRIENDLIEST CREWFRIENDLIESTJon Noli−2.2 / g · 3 games · noise−2.2 / g · 3 g · noise
TOUGHEST CREWTOUGHESTChristian Watson+1.5 / g · 5 games · noise+1.5 / g · 5 g · noise
+ = more judgment flags on San José State than expected · 2026 only: crews known for 7 of 8 games · no lean before 8 gamesJudgment flags only, 2026 · crews known for 7 of 8 games · + = more on San José State than expected · no lean before 8 games
Key players
QB · #3 · RS-SRLuke Weaver+0.13EPA/dropback · 76thCPOE+2.5aDOT9.7Sack %5.5%RB · #6 · RS-SRJabari Bates35.3%rush SR · 210thYards per carry4.6Explosive rate12.6%Rush EPA−0.06WR · #1 · FRCarson Clark2.19YPTPA · 52ndTarget share27.3%EPA / target+0.46aDOT10.5DL · #90 · JRJayland McGlothen9havoc plays · 21stTFL8Sacks7Forced fumbles0
Unit statsEfficiency
OPP-ADJUSTED · RANK OF 138 FBSFBS RANK · OPP-ADJUSTED
MetricStat | San José StateSJSU | RankRK | FBS avgVS FBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPA / play | −0.08 | 123rd | +0.06 |
| Success rate | 36.3% | 130th | 42.3% |
| Explosiveness | 1.26 | 99th | 1.30 |
| Rush EPA / play | −0.08 | 135th | +0.07 |
| Pass EPA / play | +0.03 | 111th | +0.11 |
| Passing downs SR | 26.5% | 133rd | 31.1% |
| Line yards | 3.16 | 83rd | 3.21 |
| Sack rate allowed | 5.3% | 81st | 5.3% |
| 3rd-down conversion | 33% | 115th | 41% |
| Points / opportunity | 3.24 | 125th | 4.27 |
| Red zone TD rate | 50% | 119th | 63% |
| Seconds / play | 23.9 | 8th | 28.0 |