- Spread
- NEV −6.5
- Open −5.5 · −110
- Total
- 46.5
- Open 45.5 · o −110
- Model line
- NEV −4.8+1.7
- Model total 49.2
- Win probability
- 61%
- Projected score
- 22.2 – 27.0
- SJSU – NEV
- Projected plays
- 129
- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
- NEV −6.5
- open −5.5
- Model
- −4.8+1.7
- NEV
- Total
- 46.5
- model 49.2
Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Nevada passvs San José State pass Dvs SJSU pass DBIGGEST EDGE | 130th−0.16 | 52nd−0.03 | 30 | SJSU +8.4 |
  San José State runvs Nevada run Dvs NEV run D | 136th−0.15 | 56th−0.02 | 31 | NEV +7.8 |
| Nevada runvs San José State run Dvs SJSU run D | 43rd+0.04 | 97th+0.05 | 35 | NEV +4.5 |
| San José State passvs Nevada pass Dvs NEV pass D | 110th−0.09 | 83rd+0.02 | 34 | NEV +3.0 |
PaceSJSU 24.5 s · NEV 27.6 s a snap · avg 131 plays129 plays vs 131 avg | — | — | 129 | U 0.9 |
BIGGEST EDGE · SJSU +8.4
The San José State pass defense vs Nevada's passing game
Nevada gains −0.05 EPA a play on the pass (130th); San José State allows +0.08 (52nd). About 30 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
When Nevada has the ball
- −0.04108thEPA / play87th+0.10
- 38.3%122ndSuccess rate98th44.4%
- 1.3069thExplosiveness20th1.23
- +0.1143rdRush EPA / play97th+0.12
- −0.05130thPass EPA / dropback52nd+0.08
- 44.3%115thStandard downs SR112th50.1%
- 29.5%97thPassing downs SR73rd31.0%
- 3.3644thLine yards124th3.46
- 13.0%56thHavoc rate47th15.3%
- 4.0383rdPoints / opportunity12th2.98
- 53%113thRed zone TD rate62nd59%
San José State's defense rates higher in 9 of 11. Widest gap: line yards (44th vs 124th).
When San José State has the ball
- −0.07122ndEPA / play79th+0.08
- 36.2%130thSuccess rate69th42.1%
- 1.2798thExplosiveness22nd1.23
- −0.08136thRush EPA / play56th+0.05
- +0.03110thPass EPA / dropback83rd+0.14
- 43.9%122ndStandard downs SR74th47.8%
- 26.5%133rdPassing downs SR53rd30.2%
- 3.1683rdLine yards109th3.36
- 12.9%55thHavoc rate113th12.2%
- 3.24125thPoints / opportunity97th4.36
- 50%119thRed zone TD rate106th69%
Nevada's defense rates higher in 9 of 11. Widest gap: rush EPA (136th vs 56th).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | SJSUSJSU | NEVNEV | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 24.5 | 27.6 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 66.1 | 63.0 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 54.8% | 47.7% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | +3.3% | +0.7% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 52.9% | 42.7% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 18% | 30% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 26:15 | 23:46 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 27.5 | Own 30.3 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%
All tempo →Injury report
MW AVAILABILITY · THU 6:05 PM · IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)
- OutIan Shewell · DLIan ShewellDL · SR—0%−0.1
- QuestionableCooper Hoch · WRCooper HochWR · JR—79%−0.3
- QuestionableDejon Roney · DLDejon RoneyDL · SR—79%0.0
- Questionable79%0.0
- Out for seasonCooper Wilson · DBCooper WilsonDB · JRSeason0%−0.1
- Out for seasonDJ Asiasi · TEDJ AsiasiTE · FRSeason0%0.0
- Out for seasonJake Silverman · LBJake SilvermanLB · SOSeason0%−0.1
- OutBishop Turner · DBBishop TurnerDB · JR—0%−0.1
- Out0%−0.1
- QuestionableAJ Bianco · QBAJ BiancoQB · SR—79%−0.3
- Questionable79%0.0
- QuestionableCarter Jones · QBCarter JonesQB · SO—79%−0.4
OFS OUT FOR SEASON · O OUT · D DOUBTFUL · Q QUESTIONABLE · GTD GAME-TIME DECISION · AV AVAILABLE
IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)
Line movement
- TUE 11:09ATotal 45.5 → 46.5
- TUE 1:15PSpread −5.5 → −4.5
- TUE 3:09PSpread −4.5 → −5.5
- THU 6:09PSpread −5.5 → −6.5
| Market · consensusMarket | Open | Now | Model |
|---|---|---|---|
Spread NEV | −5.5 | −6.5 | −4.8 |
Total | 45.5 | 46.5 | 49.2 |
Moneyline NEV | −199 | −244 | −159 |
Bet splits
DRAFTKINGS · VIA DK NETWORK
DraftKings bettors, as of 3:00 AM ET. Top bar tickets, bottom bar handle. A 10-pt gap on NEV suggests larger, sharper bets.
Broadcast
MW+Conditions & crew
KICKOFF FORECAST
- Sunny
- 58°
- mph ESE · G12
- 5
- Precip
- 0%
- Surface
- Turf