San José State
4-34-3 · 2-1 Mountain West · ATS 4-3
5:00 PM ET
Sat, Oct 24 · MW+
Mackay Stadium · Reno
WIN PROB
61%
NEV
Nevada
2-42-4 · 1-2 Mountain West · ATS 4-2
- Spread
- NEV −6.5
- Open −5.5 · −110
- Total
- 46.5
- Open 45.5 · o −110
- Model line
- NEV −4.8+1.7
- Model total 49.2
- Win probability
- 61%
- Projected score
- 22.2 – 27.0
- SJSU – NEV
- Projected plays
- 129
- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
- NEV −6.5
- open −5.5
- Model
- −4.8+1.7
- NEV
- Total
- 46.5
- model 49.2
Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Nevada passvs San José State pass Dvs SJSU pass DBIGGEST EDGE | 130th−0.16 | 52nd−0.03 | 30 | SJSU +8.4 |
  San José State runvs Nevada run Dvs NEV run D | 136th−0.15 | 56th−0.02 | 31 | NEV +7.8 |
| Nevada runvs San José State run Dvs SJSU run D | 43rd+0.04 | 97th+0.05 | 35 | NEV +4.5 |
| San José State passvs Nevada pass Dvs NEV pass D | 110th−0.09 | 83rd+0.02 | 34 | NEV +3.0 |
PaceSJSU 24.5 s · NEV 27.6 s a snap · avg 131 plays129 plays vs 131 avg | — | — | 129 | U 0.9 |
BIGGEST EDGE · SJSU +8.4
The San José State pass defense vs Nevada's passing game
Nevada gains −0.05 EPA a play on the pass (130th); San José State allows +0.08 (52nd). About 30 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
OffenseNevada
NEV OFFWhen Nevada has the ball
DefenseSan José State
SJSU DEF- −0.04108thEPA / play87th+0.10
- 38.3%122ndSuccess rate98th44.4%
- 1.3069thExplosiveness20th1.23
- +0.1143rdRush EPA / play97th+0.12
- −0.05130thPass EPA / dropback52nd+0.08
- 44.3%115thStandard downs SR112th50.1%
- 29.5%97thPassing downs SR73rd31.0%
- 3.3644thLine yards124th3.46
- 13.0%56thHavoc rate47th15.3%
- 4.0383rdPoints / opportunity12th2.98
- −0.06120thEarly-down EPA / play65th+0.03
- 38.7%84th3rd-down conversion40th34.7%
- 16.5%83rdStuff rate123rd12.3%
- 3.0%23rdSack rate5th9.4%
- 53%113thRed zone TD rate62nd59%
San José State's defense rates higher in 12 of 15. Widest gap: line yards (44th vs 124th).
OffenseSan José State
SJSU OFFWhen San José State has the ball
DefenseNevada
NEV DEF- −0.07122ndEPA / play79th+0.08
- 36.2%130thSuccess rate69th42.1%
- 1.2798thExplosiveness22nd1.23
- −0.08136thRush EPA / play56th+0.05
- +0.03110thPass EPA / dropback83rd+0.14
- 43.9%122ndStandard downs SR74th47.8%
- 26.5%133rdPassing downs SR53rd30.2%
- 3.1683rdLine yards109th3.36
- 12.9%55thHavoc rate113th12.2%
- 3.24125thPoints / opportunity97th4.36
- +0.0388thEarly-down EPA / play46th−0.01
- 33.0%116th3rd-down conversion16th30.6%
- 17.1%91stStuff rate122nd12.4%
- 5.3%81stSack rate43rd6.7%
- 50%119thRed zone TD rate106th69%
Nevada's defense rates higher in 12 of 15. Widest gap: third-down conversion (116th vs 16th).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | SJSUSJSU | NEVNEV | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 24.5 | 27.6 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 66.1 | 63.0 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 54.8% | 47.7% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | +3.3% | +0.7% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 52.9% | 42.7% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 18% | 30% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 26:15 | 23:46 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 27.5 | Own 30.3 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%