MAC · 5-2 · 2-1 CONF · ATS 3-3 · O/U 5-2
Toledo Rockets
HC Mike Jacobs (1st yr) · OC Cris Reisert · DC Jahmal Brown
STARTS IN 11 PERSONNEL (6 OF 7) · BASE D 4-2-5 · SHOTGUN 93%
MAC · 5-2 · 2-1 CONF · ATS 3-3 · O/U 5-2
Toledo
Rockets · HC Mike Jacobs (1st yr) · starts in 11 (6 of 7) · base D 4-2-5
Toledo
5-2 · 2-1 MAC
2 losses now · CFP 3% in sims · CCG 46% · title 29%
Latest from the beat
TOLEDO · LAST 72 HLAST 72 H
All coverage →No verified updates in the last 72 hours.
Schedule & resultsSchedule
POSTGAME WE = HOW OFTEN THIS BOX SCORE WINS · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PREGAME WPCLOSING LINES · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PROJECTED LINEFUTURE LINES PROJECTED
Wk | Opponent | Result | Line | ATS | Net EPA | Off SR | Def SR | Win prob | Plays | s/play | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |   at Michigan Stateat Michigan State | L20–30 | +10+10 | P | −0.09 | 29% | 39% | 35% | 41 | 38.5 | |
| 2 |   Central ConnecticutCentral Connecticut | W63–10 | −36.5−36.5 | W | +0.83 | 54% | 27% | 100% | 75 | 27.4 | |
| 3 |   TempleTemple | W49–48 | −5−5 | L | +0.09 | 51% | 40% | 40% | 76 | 22.6 | |
| 4 |   San Diego StateSan Diego State | W41–16 | −3−3 | W | +0.88 | 45% | 23% | 90% | 70 | 30.5 | |
| 5 |   at Ball Stateat Ball State | W39–24 | −21−21 | L | +0.13 | 43% | 38% | 77% | 84 | 24.9 | |
| 6 |   BuffaloBuffalo | L8–23 | −18.5−18.5 | L | −0.14 | 34% | 34% | 11% | 62 | 23.7 | |
| 7 |   at Eastern Michiganat Eastern Michigan | W34–14 | −7.5−7.5 | W | +0.43 | 49% | 27% | 85% | 69 | 30.9 | |
| 8 |   Western MichiganWestern MichiganNEXT | SAT 12:00 CBSSNSAT 12:00 | −3−3 | — | — | — | — | 63% | 127 | — | |
| 9 | BYE | ||||||||||
| 10 |   at Sacramento Stateat Sacramento State | NOV 4NOV 4 | −22.5 proj−22.5 | 91% | |||||||
| 11 |   MassachusettsMassachusetts | NOV 11NOV 11 | −12 proj−12 | 77% | |||||||
| 12 |   Bowling GreenBowling Green | NOV 20NOV 20 | −17.8 proj−17.8 | 86% | |||||||
| 13 |   at Ohioat Ohio | NOV 27NOV 27 | −2.5 proj−2.5 | 56% |
Success rate by down & distance
Formation & personnelFormation
PBP TAGS · 413 OF 420 PLAYS413 OF 420 PLAYS TAGGED
LookLook · usage | Usage | Pass %Pass | EPA/playEPA | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shotgun93% | 93% | 54% | +0.09 | 42% |
| Under center7% | 7% | 21% | +0.27 | 55% |
| No-huddle88% | 88% | 53% | +0.10 | 43% |
| Huddle12% | 12% | 39% | +0.17 | 41% |
In shotgun on 93 % of tagged snaps, passing 54 % of the time (+0.09 EPA a play; +0.27 under center). No-huddle on 88 %. Starts in 11 personnel in 6 of 7 games. Base defense 4-2-5 (6 of 7).
Next game
SAT 12:00 CBSSN · GLASS BOWLSAT 12:00 CBSSN
Refs
JUDGMENT FLAGS OVER EXPECTED · 2026FLAGS OVER EXPECTED / G · 2026
Crews from | FOE / G | 90% range | Games | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MAC crews−0.4 to +0.4 · 46 games | 0.0 | −0.4 to +0.4 | 46 | NOISE |
| Big Ten crews— · 4 games | −1.3 | — | 4 | NOISE |
| C-USA crews— · 3 games | +2.1 | — | 3 | NOISE |
| American crews— · 2 games | −0.6 | — | 2 | NOISE |
| SEC crews— · 2 games | +0.6 | — | 2 | NOISE |
| ACC crews— · 1 game | 0.0 | — | 1 | NOISE |
| Pac-12 crews— · 1 game | −0.3 | — | 1 | NOISE |
+ = more judgment flags on Toledo than expected · 2026 only: crews known for 7 of 8 games · no lean before 8 gamesJudgment flags only, 2026 · crews known for 7 of 8 games · + = more on Toledo than expected · no lean before 8 games
Key players
Unit statsEfficiency
OPP-ADJUSTED · RANK OF 138 FBSFBS RANK · OPP-ADJUSTED
MetricStat | ToledoTOL | RankRK | FBS avgVS FBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPA / play | +0.05 | 73rd | +0.06 |
| Success rate | 40.8% | 82nd | 42.3% |
| Explosiveness | 1.35 | 29th | 1.30 |
| Rush EPA / play | +0.03 | 98th | +0.07 |
| Pass EPA / play | +0.19 | 35th | +0.11 |
| Passing downs SR | 29.1% | 107th | 31.1% |
| Line yards | 3.26 | 60th | 3.21 |
| Sack rate allowed | 0.9% | 3rd | 5.3% |
| 3rd-down conversion | 41% | 66th | 41% |
| Points / opportunity | 4.33 | 67th | 4.27 |
| Red zone TD rate | 72% | 31st | 63% |
| Seconds / play | 25.9 | 31st | 28.0 |