rumorTracy McDannald@tracymcdannald.bsky.social
1dUnconfirmed tip: Brooks could play against Michigan State on Saturday.
Eugene Brooks · OLCHECKING
Big Ten · #9 AP · 6-0 · 4-0 CONF · ATS 6-0 · O/U 3-3
UCLA Bruins
HC Bob Chesney (1st yr) · OC Dean Kennedy · DC Colin Hitschler
STARTS IN 11 PERSONNEL (3 OF 4) · BASE D 3-3-5 · SHOTGUN 100%
Power rating11.118th
CFP odds61%—
PLAYOFFLOCK→BUBBLE
Proj. wins10.5of 12
Fan pulse—4 of 30 scored
Big Ten · #9 AP · 6-0 · 4-0 CONF · ATS 6-0 · O/U 3-3
UCLA
Bruins · HC Bob Chesney (1st yr) · starts in 11 (3 of 4) · base D 3-3-5
Power rating11.118th
CFP odds · outlook61%—LOCK→BUBBLE
Proj. wins10.5of 12
Fan pulse—4 of 30 scored
UCLA
#9 · 6-0 · 4-0 Big Ten
POWER RATING11.118th in FBS
CFP ODDS61%no change
PROJ. WINS10.5of 12 games
PLAYOFF OUTLOOKLOCK→BUBBLE
0 losses now · CFP 61% in sims · CCG 52% · title 16%
FAN PULSE—4 of 30 scored
Latest from the beat
UCLA · LAST 72 HLAST 72 H
All coverage →rumorConnor Morrissette@C_Morrissette
2dPleasant won’t play against Michigan State on Saturday, per Connor Morrissette.
Rodrick Pleasant · DBCLAIM: OUT✓ MATCHES OUT
rumorConnor Morrissette@C_Morrissette
2dDavis won’t play against Michigan State on Saturday, per Connor Morrissette.
Jordan Davis · OLCLAIM: OUT✓ MATCHES OUT
Schedule & resultsSchedule
POSTGAME WE = HOW OFTEN THIS BOX SCORE WINS · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PREGAME WPCLOSING LINES · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PROJECTED LINEFUTURE LINES PROJECTED
Wk | Opponent | Result | Line | ATS | Net EPA | Off SR | Def SR | Win prob | Plays | s/play | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |   at Californiaat California | W45–24 | −2.5−2.5 | W | +0.51 | 58% | 33% | 88% | 52 | 30.6 | |
| 2 |   San Diego StateSan Diego State | W28–10 | −13.5−13.5 | W | +0.55 | 45% | 31% | 91% | 64 | 35.6 | |
| 3 |   PurduePurdue | W52–38 | −13.5−13.5 | W | +0.24 | 58% | 48% | 68% | 79 | 27.2 | |
| 4 |   at Marylandat Maryland | W54–3 | −2.5−2.5 | W | +0.71 | 38% | 27% | 99% | 63 | 32.0 | |
| 5 | BYE | ||||||||||
| 6 |   at Oregonat Oregon | W17–15 | +10+10 | W | +0.20 | 34% | 28% | 48% | 70 | 34.0 | |
| 7 |   WisconsinWisconsin | W17–7 | −1.5−1.5 | W | +0.11 | 41% | 40% | 77% | 71 | 33.1 | |
| 8 |   Michigan StateMichigan StateNEXT | SAT 3:30 CBSSAT 3:30 | −15−15 | — | — | — | — | 84% | 130 | — | |
| 9 |   NevadaNevada | OCT 31OCT 31 | −21 proj−21 | 90% | |||||||
| 10 |   at Minnesotaat Minnesota | NOV 7NOV 7 | −12.5 proj−12.5 | 78% | |||||||
| 11 |   IllinoisIllinois | NOV 13NOV 13 | −15.1 proj−15.1 | 82% | |||||||
| 12 |   at Michiganat Michigan | NOV 21NOV 21 | −2.5 proj−2.5 | 56% | |||||||
| 13 |   USCUSC | NOV 28NOV 28 | −4.2 proj−4.2 | 60% |
Success rate by down & distance
1st75%n 433%n 648%n 15367%n 6
2nd67%n 2148%n 3333%n 5220%n 15
3rd73%n 2246%n 2843%n 1427%n 15
4th33%n 30%n 10%n 20%n 1
Formation & personnelFormation
PBP TAGS · 376 OF 376 PLAYS376 OF 376 PLAYS TAGGED
LookLook · usage | Usage | Pass %Pass | EPA/playEPA | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shotgun100% | 100% | 43% | +0.15 | 46% |
| Under center0% | 0% | 0% | +1.12 | 0% |
| No-huddle16% | 16% | 50% | +0.36 | 48% |
| Huddle84% | 84% | 41% | +0.11 | 46% |
StartersSTARTERS
113 of 4 games121 of 4BASE D3-3-54 of 4
113 of 43-3-5base D · 4 of 4
In shotgun on 100 % of tagged snaps, passing 43 % of the time (+0.15 EPA a play; +1.12 under center). No-huddle on 16 %. Starts in 11 personnel in 3 of 4 games. Base defense 3-3-5 (4 of 4).
Next game
SAT 3:30 CBS · ROSE BOWLSAT 3:30 CBS
TOP INJURY · OFFICIAL REPORT
O
Jordan DavisOL · SR
OL · top injuryNEXT UPM. Indestad
0%TO PLAY
−0.4IMPACT PTS
% to play = 1 − P(out) · expected return not reported
LINE · MODEL · WPIMPACT −0.4 PTS
Refs
JUDGMENT FLAGS OVER EXPECTED · 2026FLAGS OVER EXPECTED / G · 2026
Crews from | FOE / G | 90% range | Games | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Big Ten crews−0.4 to +0.6 · 19 games | +0.1 | −0.4 to +0.6 | 19 | NOISE |
| Pac-12 crews−0.6 to +0.4 · 16 games | −0.1 | −0.6 to +0.4 | 16 | NOISE |
| Big 12 crews— · 2 games | −1.4 | — | 2 | NOISE |
| ACC crews— · 1 game | +1.7 | — | 1 | NOISE |
| MAC crews— · 1 game | −0.2 | — | 1 | NOISE |
FRIENDLIEST CREWFRIENDLIESTMike McCabe−1.1 / g · 3 games · noise−1.1 / g · 3 g · noise
TOUGHEST CREWTOUGHESTBryan Banks+1.3 / g · 3 games · noise+1.3 / g · 3 g · noise
+ = more judgment flags on UCLA than expected · 2026 only: crews known for 6 of 7 games · no lean before 8 gamesJudgment flags only, 2026 · crews known for 6 of 7 games · + = more on UCLA than expected · no lean before 8 games
Key players
QB · #9 · JRNico Iamaleava+0.08EPA/dropback · 91stCPOE−0.3aDOT9.5Sack %5.8%RB · #3 · SRWayne Knight51.2%rush SR · 39thYards per carry6.8Explosive rate13.1%Rush EPA+0.40WR · #4 · SRSemaj Morgan2.01YPTPA · 82ndTarget share22.5%EPA / target+0.67aDOT9.9DL · #15 · SOSahir West4havoc plays · 199thTFL4Sacks1Forced fumbles0
Unit statsEfficiency
OPP-ADJUSTED · RANK OF 138 FBSFBS RANK · OPP-ADJUSTED
MetricStat | UCLAUCLA | RankRK | FBS avgVS FBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPA / play | +0.14 | 31st | +0.06 |
| Success rate | 45.5% | 32nd | 42.3% |
| Explosiveness | 1.30 | 70th | 1.30 |
| Rush EPA / play | +0.18 | 5th | +0.07 |
| Pass EPA / play | +0.12 | 66th | +0.11 |
| Passing downs SR | 31.6% | 56th | 31.1% |
| Line yards | 3.62 | 15th | 3.21 |
| Sack rate allowed | 5.6% | 89th | 5.3% |
| 3rd-down conversion | 52% | 12th | 41% |
| Points / opportunity | 4.05 | 81st | 4.27 |
| Red zone TD rate | 65% | 61st | 63% |
| Seconds / play | 31.5 | 129th | 28.0 |