Michigan State vs UCLA

Michigan State

2-52-5 · 0-4 Big Ten · ATS 4-2-1

3:30 PM ET

Sat, Oct 24 · CBS

Rose Bowl · Pasadena

WIN PROB

84%

UCLA

#9 · 6-0#9 · 6-0 · 4-0 Big Ten · ATS 6-0

Spread: UCLA −15; Open −13.5 · −110
Total: 44; Open 47 · o −110
Model line: UCLA −16.3+1.3; Model total 49.8
Win probability: 84%
Projected score: 16.8 – 33.0; MSU – UCLA
Projected plays: 130; FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play

Spread: UCLA −15; open −13.5
Model: −16.3+1.3; UCLA
Total: 44; model 49.8

Where the model sees the game

EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED

Where the model sees the game: unit gaps and their model impact
Unit vs defense	Offense gainsOff	Defense allowsDef	Plays	Model impactImpact
Michigan State passvs UCLA pass Dvs UCLA pass DBIGGEST EDGE	80th−0.03	12th−0.15	32	UCLA +8.2
Michigan State runvs UCLA run Dvs UCLA run D	104th−0.05	30th−0.06	33	UCLA +5.3
UCLA runvs Michigan State run Dvs MSU run D	5th+0.11	35th−0.06	37	UCLA +3.0
UCLA passvs Michigan State pass Dvs MSU pass D	66th0.00	96th+0.05	28	UCLA +2.0
PaceMSU 33.4 s · UCLA 33.1 s a snap · avg 131 plays130 plays vs 131 avg	—	—	130	U 0.4

BIGGEST EDGE · UCLA +8.2

The UCLA pass defense vs Michigan State's passing game

Michigan State gains +0.08 EPA a play on the pass (80th); UCLA allows −0.03 (12th). About 32 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.

OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.

OffenseUCLA

UCLA OFF

When UCLA has the ball

DefenseMichigan State

MSU DEF

+0.1430thEPA / play66th+0.05
45.5%32ndSuccess rate52nd41.2%
1.3070thExplosiveness58th1.29
+0.185thRush EPA / play35th+0.01
+0.1266thPass EPA / dropback96th+0.16
50.1%32ndStandard downs SR66th47.1%
31.6%55thPassing downs SR81st31.2%
3.6214thLine yards54th2.97
14.4%86thHavoc rate83rd13.6%
4.0581stPoints / opportunity82nd4.18
65%62ndRed zone TD rate64th60%

UCLA's offense rates higher in 9 of 11. Widest gap: line yards (14th vs 54th).

OffenseMichigan State

MSU OFF

When Michigan State has the ball

DefenseUCLA

UCLA DEF

−0.0199thEPA / play4th−0.12
43.9%46thSuccess rate19th37.9%
1.20130thExplosiveness40th1.27
+0.02104thRush EPA / play30th+0.01
+0.0880thPass EPA / dropback12th−0.03
47.3%62ndStandard downs SR42nd45.8%
32.4%37thPassing downs SR1st24.9%
3.1191stLine yards27th2.78
14.3%85thHavoc rate13th18.1%
3.9293rdPoints / opportunity108th4.60
59%88thRed zone TD rate77th63%

UCLA's defense rates higher in 10 of 11. Widest gap: EPA / play (99th vs 4th).

Tempo & tendencies

SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE

Tempo and tendencies, Michigan State and UCLA, season to date
Metric	MSUMSU	UCLAUCLA	FBS avgFBS
Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral	33.4	33.1	28.9
Plays per gamePlays per game	63.9	66.5	65.7
Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral	53.0%	47.3%	47.9%
Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS	+5.8%	−2.4%	−1.9%
Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral	49.3%	39.7%	44.6%
4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations	38%	19%	27%
Time of possessionTime of possession	29:57	33:16	30:11
Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position	Own 33.0	Own 35.0	Own 29.8

Neutral = WP 20–80%

All tempo →

Michigan State

BIG TEN REPORT · FRI 8:00 PMNET −5.3% TO PLAYIMPACT

Out for season
Cam Edwards · RBCam EdwardsRB · SRSeason ·Report trail: Out for season, Out for season, Out for seasonT-3 → T-1
0%−3.0
Out
Cam Fancher · QBCam FancherQB · SRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.2
Out
Charles Brantley · CBCharles BrantleyCB · SRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.2
Out
Charles Taplin · WRCharles TaplinWR · FRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.6
Out
Jay Coyne · FBJay CoyneFB · SRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%0.0
Out
Joe Caudill · TEJoe CaudillTE · FRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%0.0
Out
Jordan Hall · LBJordan HallLB · SRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.2
Out
Keshawn Williams · CBKeshawn WilliamsCB · SOReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Tre Bell · CBTre BellCB · SRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.2
Out
Tristan Comer · OLTristan ComerOL · FRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Tyran Chappell · CBTyran ChappellCB · SOReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Questionable
Alessio Milivojevic · QBAlessio MilivojevicQB · SOReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, QuestionableT-3 → T-1
79%−0.2
Questionable
Ben Murawski · OLBen MurawskiOL · SRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, QuestionableT-3 → T-1
79%−0.1
Questionable
Brady Pretzlaff · LBBrady PretzlaffLB · SOReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, QuestionableT-3 → T-1
79%0.0
Questionable
Caleb Wheatland · LBCaleb WheatlandLB · SRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, QuestionableT-3 → T-1
79%0.0
Questionable
Darrin Jones Jr. · RBDarrin Jones Jr.RB · FRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, QuestionableT-3 → T-1
79%0.0
Questionable
Jaziun Patterson · RBJaziun PattersonRB · SRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, QuestionableT-3 → T-1
79%−0.4

UCLA

BIG TEN REPORT · FRI 8:00 PMNET −1.1% TO PLAYIMPACT

Out for season
Mikey Matthews · WRMikey MatthewsWR · SRSeason ·Report trail: Out for season, Out for season, Out for seasonT-3 → T-1
0%−0.3
Out for season
Nico Iamaleava · QBNico IamaleavaQB · JRSeason ·Report trail: Out for season, Out for season, Out for seasonT-3 → T-1
0%0.0
Out
Jonah Smith · WRJonah SmithWR · FRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%0.0
Out
Jordan Davis · OLJordan DavisOL · SRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.4
Out
Rodrick Pleasant · DBRodrick PleasantDB · JRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.2
Out
Sam Yoon · OLSam YoonOL · SRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Tao Johnson · DBTao JohnsonDB · SRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Available
Eugene Brooks · OLEugene BrooksOL · SOReport trail: Probable, Available, AvailableT-3 → T-1
100%0.0

OFS OUT FOR SEASON · O OUT · D DOUBTFUL · Q QUESTIONABLE · GTD GAME-TIME DECISION · AV AVAILABLE

IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)

Line movement

MON 7:15ATotal 46 → 45
WED 8:45ATotal 47.5 → 44.5 · 67% tickets overTotal 47.5 → 44.5 · 67% on overRLM
WED 8:54PSpread −13.5 → −14.5
THU 7:09ATotal 45 → 43.5

Steam = 4+ books in 5 min. RLM = line moves against the ticket majority.

Consensus market: open, now and model
Market · consensusMarket	Open	Now	Model
Spread UCLA	−13.5	−15	−16.3
TotalSTEAM · 4 BOOKSRLM	47.0	44.0	49.8
Moneyline UCLA	−552	−699	−516

Bet splits

DRAFTKINGS · VIA DK NETWORK

MSU +15 · 24% / 24%UCLA −15 · 76% / 76%

Over · 67% / 10%Under · 33% / 90%

DraftKings bettors, as of 7:00 AM ET. Top bar tickets, bottom bar handle. A 57-pt gap on the under suggests larger, sharper bets.

Broadcast

CBS

CrewTBA

Conditions & crew

KICKOFF FORECAST

Sunny: 69°
mph E: 5
Precip: 0%
Surface: Grass

RefereeCrew TBA

RestMSU 7d · UCLA 7d

Injury report

Michigan State

UCLA

Line movement

Bet splits

Broadcast

Conditions & crew