Big Ten · 2-5 · 0-4 CONF · ATS 4-2 · O/U 2-5
Michigan State Spartans
HC Pat Fitzgerald (1st yr) · OC Nick Sheridan · DC Joe Rossi
STARTS IN 11 PERSONNEL (5 OF 7) · BASE D 4-2-5 · SHOTGUN 92%
Big Ten · 2-5 · 0-4 CONF · ATS 4-2 · O/U 2-5
Michigan State
Spartans · HC Pat Fitzgerald (1st yr) · starts in 11 (5 of 7) · base D 4-2-5
Michigan State
2-5 · 0-4 Big Ten
5 losses now · CFP 0% in sims · CCG 0% · title 0%
14 pts above the model ·Coverage →
Latest from the beat
MICHIGAN STATE · LAST 72 HLAST 72 H
All coverage →No verified updates in the last 72 hours.
Schedule & resultsSchedule
POSTGAME WE = HOW OFTEN THIS BOX SCORE WINS · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PREGAME WPCLOSING LINES · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PROJECTED LINEFUTURE LINES PROJECTED
Wk | Opponent | Result | Line | ATS | Net EPA | Off SR | Def SR | Win prob | Plays | s/play | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |   ToledoToledo | W30–20 | −10−10 | P | +0.09 | 39% | 29% | 65% | 82 | 29.5 | |
| 2 |   Eastern MichiganEastern Michigan | W35–7 | −17.5−17.5 | W | +0.38 | 56% | 41% | 96% | 71 | 22.5 | |
| 3 |   at Notre Dameat Notre Dame | L10–27 | +29+29 | W | −0.43 | 35% | 52% | 11% | 46 | 32.2 | |
| 4 |   NebraskaNebraska | L13–31 | +6+6 | L | −0.33 | 47% | 41% | 16% | 60 | 43.0 | |
| 5 |   at Wisconsinat Wisconsin | L3–31 | +9+9 | L | −0.64 | 36% | 34% | 3% | 77 | 25.4 | |
| 6 |   IllinoisIllinois | L37–38 | +2.5+2.5 | W | +0.17 | 50% | 51% | 63% | 54 | 25.5 | |
| 7 |   NorthwesternNorthwestern | L21–24 | +7.5+7.5 | W | −0.08 | 44% | 43% | 44% | 57 | 36.0 | |
| 8 |   at UCLAat UCLANEXT | SAT 3:30 CBSSAT 3:30 | +15+15 | — | — | — | — | 16% | 130 | — | |
| 9 | BYE | ||||||||||
| 10 |   at Michiganat Michigan | NOV 7NOV 7 | +10.4 proj+10.4 | 26% | |||||||
| 11 |   WashingtonWashington | NOV 14NOV 14 | +1.8 proj+1.8 | 46% | |||||||
| 12 |   OregonOregon | NOV 20NOV 20 | +11.9 proj+11.9 | 24% | |||||||
| 13 |   at Rutgersat Rutgers | NOV 28NOV 28 | −0.5 proj−0.5 | 51% |
Success rate by down & distance
Formation & personnelFormation
PBP TAGS · 423 OF 426 PLAYS423 OF 426 PLAYS TAGGED
LookLook · usage | Usage | Pass %Pass | EPA/playEPA | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shotgun92% | 92% | 50% | −0.05 | 43% |
| Under center8% | 8% | 32% | −0.20 | 47% |
| No-huddle24% | 24% | 47% | −0.08 | 51% |
| Huddle76% | 76% | 49% | −0.06 | 41% |
In shotgun on 92 % of tagged snaps, passing 50 % of the time (−0.05 EPA a play; −0.20 under center). No-huddle on 24 %. Starts in 11 personnel in 5 of 7 games. Base defense 4-2-5 (5 of 6).
Next game
SAT 3:30 CBS · ROSE BOWLSAT 3:30 CBS
TOP INJURY · OFFICIAL REPORT
% to play = 1 − P(out) · expected return not reported
Refs
JUDGMENT FLAGS OVER EXPECTED · 2026FLAGS OVER EXPECTED / G · 2026
Crews from | FOE / G | 90% range | Games | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Big Ten crews−0.3 to +0.4 · 52 games | +0.1 | −0.3 to +0.4 | 52 | NOISE |
| ACC crews— · 1 game | +0.4 | — | 1 | NOISE |
| MAC crews— · 1 game | −2.8 | — | 1 | NOISE |
| Pac-12 crews— · 1 game | −1.6 | — | 1 | NOISE |
+ = more judgment flags on Michigan State than expected · 2026 only: crews known for 7 of 8 games · no lean before 8 gamesJudgment flags only, 2026 · crews known for 7 of 8 games · + = more on Michigan State than expected · no lean before 8 games
Key players
Unit statsEfficiency
OPP-ADJUSTED · RANK OF 138 FBSFBS RANK · OPP-ADJUSTED
MetricStat | Michigan StateMSU | RankRK | FBS avgVS FBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPA / play | −0.01 | 100th | +0.06 |
| Success rate | 43.9% | 45th | 42.3% |
| Explosiveness | 1.20 | 127th | 1.30 |
| Rush EPA / play | +0.02 | 102nd | +0.07 |
| Pass EPA / play | +0.08 | 80th | +0.11 |
| Passing downs SR | 32.5% | 38th | 31.1% |
| Line yards | 3.11 | 91st | 3.21 |
| Sack rate allowed | 7.2% | 107th | 5.3% |
| 3rd-down conversion | 40% | 69th | 41% |
| Points / opportunity | 3.92 | 93rd | 4.27 |
| Red zone TD rate | 59% | 89th | 63% |
| Seconds / play | 27.8 | 64th | 28.0 |