Michigan State
2-52-5 · 0-4 Big Ten · ATS 4-2-1
3:30 PM ET
Sat, Oct 24 · CBS
Rose Bowl · Pasadena
WIN PROB
84%
UCLA
UCLA
#9 · 6-0#9 · 6-0 · 4-0 Big Ten · ATS 6-0
- Spread
- UCLA −15
- Open −13.5 · −110
- Total
- 44
- Open 47 · o −110
- Model line
- UCLA −16.3+1.3
- Model total 49.8
- Win probability
- 84%
- Projected score
- 16.8 – 33.0
- MSU – UCLA
- Projected plays
- 130
- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
- UCLA −15
- open −13.5
- Model
- −16.3+1.3
- UCLA
- Total
- 44
- model 49.8
Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Michigan State passvs UCLA pass Dvs UCLA pass DBIGGEST EDGE | 80th−0.03 | 12th−0.15 | 32 | UCLA +8.2 |
| Michigan State runvs UCLA run Dvs UCLA run D | 104th−0.05 | 30th−0.06 | 33 | UCLA +5.3 |
  UCLA runvs Michigan State run Dvs MSU run D | 5th+0.11 | 35th−0.06 | 37 | UCLA +3.0 |
| UCLA passvs Michigan State pass Dvs MSU pass D | 66th0.00 | 96th+0.05 | 28 | UCLA +2.0 |
PaceMSU 33.4 s · UCLA 33.1 s a snap · avg 131 plays130 plays vs 131 avg | — | — | 130 | U 0.4 |
BIGGEST EDGE · UCLA +8.2
The UCLA pass defense vs Michigan State's passing game
Michigan State gains +0.08 EPA a play on the pass (80th); UCLA allows −0.03 (12th). About 32 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
OffenseUCLA
UCLA OFFWhen UCLA has the ball
DefenseMichigan State
MSU DEF- +0.1430thEPA / play66th+0.05
- 45.5%32ndSuccess rate52nd41.2%
- 1.3070thExplosiveness58th1.29
- +0.185thRush EPA / play35th+0.01
- +0.1266thPass EPA / dropback96th+0.16
- 50.1%32ndStandard downs SR66th47.1%
- 31.6%55thPassing downs SR81st31.2%
- 3.6214thLine yards54th2.97
- 14.4%86thHavoc rate83rd13.6%
- 4.0581stPoints / opportunity82nd4.18
- +0.1351stEarly-down EPA / play98th+0.08
- 51.9%14th3rd-down conversion112th43.5%
- 11.0%15thStuff rate25th20.3%
- 5.6%89thSack rate61st5.8%
- 65%62ndRed zone TD rate64th60%
UCLA's offense rates higher in 12 of 15. Widest gap: third-down conversion (14th vs 112th).
OffenseMichigan State
MSU OFFWhen Michigan State has the ball
DefenseUCLA
UCLA DEF- −0.0199thEPA / play4th−0.12
- 43.9%46thSuccess rate19th37.9%
- 1.20130thExplosiveness40th1.27
- +0.02104thRush EPA / play30th+0.01
- +0.0880thPass EPA / dropback12th−0.03
- 47.3%62ndStandard downs SR42nd45.8%
- 32.4%37thPassing downs SR1st24.9%
- 3.1191stLine yards27th2.78
- 14.3%85thHavoc rate13th18.1%
- 3.9293rdPoints / opportunity108th4.60
- 0.00107thEarly-down EPA / play4th−0.19
- 40.2%69th3rd-down conversion12th29.7%
- 15.2%65thStuff rate26th20.2%
- 7.2%106thSack rate96th4.6%
- 59%88thRed zone TD rate77th63%
UCLA's defense rates higher in 14 of 15. Widest gap: early-down EPA (107th vs 4th).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | MSUMSU | UCLAUCLA | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 33.4 | 33.1 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 63.9 | 66.5 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 53.0% | 47.3% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | +5.8% | −2.4% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 49.3% | 39.7% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 38% | 19% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 29:57 | 33:16 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 33.0 | Own 35.0 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%