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FINAL · ESPN · ELLIOTT T. BOWERS STADIUM
WKUWestern Kentucky
163-4 · 2-1 C-USA
16
FINAL
SHSUSam Houston
31-5 · 0-2 C-USA
3
WKU −1.5 COVERUNDER 53.5MODEL EDGE MISS
PREGAME WP WKU 37%→POSTGAME WE WKU 81%
Elliott T. Bowers Stadium · 7,291
Postgame WE
81%WKU · 10k sims
How often this box score wins
Offense EPA / play
−0.17SHSU −0.44
Success rate
27%SHSU 25%
Turnovers
0–1≈ 3.4 pts swing
vs model
−13proj SHSU by 5.6
Plays · pace
130proj 137 · 27.7s

Win probability · full game

WKU LOW 55% · Q1 14:03 · EXCITEMENT INDEX 3.9

Plays that decided it

Ranked by |win probability added|
  1. 1Western Kentucky
    Glenn 23-yd TD to Arends
    (10:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 B.Glenn pass complete short left to #87 C.Arends caught at SAM07, for 23 yards to the SAM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:06, 1ST DOWN #99 K.Campbell kick attempt good (H: #43 J.Smith, LS: #49 N.Imhoff)
    Q1 10:12 · 2nd & 10 · 0–0 → 7–0 · +3.2 EPA
    Q1 10:12 · 0–0 → 7–0 · +3.2 EPA
    +.13
  2. 2Sam Houston
    Dowdy 15-yd run
    (05:56) Shotgun #20 M.Dowdy rush right for 15 yards gain to the SAM18 (#32 W.Ard; #6 J.Brown), 1ST DOWN
    Q1 5:56 · 2nd & 9 SHSU 3 · +2.0 EPA
    Q1 5:56 · 2nd & 9 SHSU 3 · +2.0 EPA
    −.12
  3. 3Western Kentucky
    Ard sacks Locke, −10
    (01:03) Shotgun #8 L.Locke sacked for loss of 10 yards to the WKU35 (#32 W.Ard)
    Q1 1:03 · 3rd & 10 WKU 25 · −2.6 SHSU EPA
    Q1 1:03 · 3rd & 10 WKU 25 · −2.6 SHSU EPA
    +.09
  4. 4Western Kentucky
    Newsome intercepts Locke
    (13:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 L.Locke pass intercepted by #2 T.Newsome Jr. at WKU38 #2 T.Newsome Jr. return 22 yards to the SAM40 (#5 K.Berry-Johnson)
    Q4 13:31 · 3rd & 10 SHSU 40 · −3.4 SHSU EPA
    Q4 13:31 · 3rd & 10 SHSU 40 · −3.4 SHSU EPA
    +.08
  5. 5Western Kentucky
    Smith 39-yd punt
    (06:43) #43 J.Smith punt 39 yards to the SAM02
    Q1 6:43 · 4th & 7 SHSU 41 · +0.8 EPA
    Q1 6:43 · 4th & 7 SHSU 41 · +0.8 EPA
    +.07

Player EPA

Total · game
Full box scoreAll 130 plays