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SAT 12:00 · FOX · ANN ARBOR
Indiana
#6 · 6-1#6 · 6-1 · 3-1 Big Ten · ATS 1-6
12:00 PM ET
Sat, Oct 24 · FOX
Michigan Stadium · Ann Arbor
WIN PROB
67%
IU
Michigan
4-24-2 · 1-2 Big Ten · ATS 2-4
Spread
IU −7.5
Open −8 · −105
Total
42.5
Open 42.5 · o −112
Model line
IU −7.5
Model total 51.6
Win probability
67%
Projected score
29.6 – 22.1
IU – MICH
Projected plays
117
FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
Spread
IU −7.5
open −8
Model
−7.5
IU
Total
42.5
model 51.6

Where the model sees the game

EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED

Where the model sees the game: unit gaps and their model impact
Unit vs defenseOffense gainsOffDefense allowsDefPlaysModel impactImpact
PaceIU 27.5 s · MICH 31.8 s a snap · avg 131 plays117 plays vs 131 avgBIGGEST EDGE
——117U 6.3
Indiana passvs Michigan pass Dvs MICH pass D
5th+0.2420th−0.1128IU +5.0
Michigan runvs Indiana run Dvs IU run D
71st0.0017th−0.0934IU +4.7
Indiana runvs Michigan run Dvs MICH run D
77th−0.0118th−0.0830MICH +4.1
Michigan passvs Indiana pass Dvs IU pass D
71st−0.0125th−0.0925IU +3.6

BIGGEST EDGE · U 6.3

The pace fight

MICH snaps every 31.8 s, IU every 27.5 s in neutral situations. Each extra 10 plays moves the total about 4.4 points. The model projects 117 plays against a 131 average. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.

OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.

OffenseMichigan
MICH OFF

When Michigan has the ball

DefenseIndiana
IU DEF
  • +0.0474thEPA / play18th−0.06
  • 41.4%75thSuccess rate12th37.1%
  • 1.26104thExplosiveness72nd1.30
  • +0.0771stRush EPA / play17th−0.02
  • +0.1171stPass EPA / dropback25th+0.02
  • 45.1%103rdStandard downs SR10th41.8%
  • 32.7%35thPassing downs SR69th30.8%
  • 3.1977thLine yards21st2.73
  • 15.7%109thHavoc rate49th15.2%
  • 3.69105thPoints / opportunity15th3.08
  • 64%68thRed zone TD rate16th46%

Indiana's defense rates higher in 10 of 11. Widest gap: standard-downs success rate (103rd vs 10th).

OffenseIndiana
IU OFF

When Indiana has the ball

DefenseMichigan
MICH DEF
  • +0.2118thEPA / play20th−0.06
  • 43.8%48thSuccess rate24th38.5%
  • 1.442ndExplosiveness18th1.22
  • +0.0677thRush EPA / play18th−0.01
  • +0.355thPass EPA / dropback20th0.00
  • 48.7%44thStandard downs SR22nd43.5%
  • 31.7%54thPassing downs SR25th29.1%
  • 3.2368thLine yards17th2.71
  • 11.6%33rdHavoc rate55th15.0%
  • 4.4961stPoints / opportunity14th3.08
  • 70%45thRed zone TD rate16th46%

Michigan's defense rates higher in 7 of 11. Widest gap: rush EPA (77th vs 18th).

Tempo & tendencies

SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE

Tempo and tendencies, Indiana and Michigan, season to date
MetricIUIUMICHMICHFBS avgFBS
Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral27.531.828.9
Plays per gamePlays per game60.157.065.7
Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral55.6%42.6%47.9%
Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS+3.5%−6.6%−2.0%
Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral46.6%40.8%44.6%
4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations26%18%27%
Time of possessionTime of possession29:3628:1630:11
Avg starting field positionAvg starting field positionOwn 31.8Own 29.5Own 29.8

Neutral = WP 20–80%

All tempo →

Injury report

BIG TEN AVAILABILITY · FRI 8:00 PM · IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)

Indiana

BIG TEN REPORT · FRI 8:00 PM% TO PLAYIMPACT
No players listedBIG TEN REPORT · FRI 8:00 PM

Michigan

BIG TEN REPORT · FRI 8:00 PMNET −1.1% TO PLAYIMPACT

OFS OUT FOR SEASON · O OUT · D DOUBTFUL · Q QUESTIONABLE · GTD GAME-TIME DECISION · P PROBABLE · AV AVAILABLE

IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)

Line movement

  • SUN 1:17PSpread −8.5 → −7.5
  • SUN 4:17PTotal 42.5 → 41.5
  • MON 8:00PTotal 52.5 → 41.5 · 78% tickets overTotal 52.5 → 41.5 · 78% on overRLM
  • THU 9:05PTotal 41.5 → 42.5

Steam = 4+ books in 5 min. RLM = line moves against the ticket majority.

Consensus market: open, now and model
Market · consensusMarketOpenNowModel
Spread IU
−8−7.5−7.5
TotalRLM
42.542.551.6
Moneyline IU
−332−297−208

Bet splits

DRAFTKINGS · VIA DK NETWORK

IU −7.5 · 56% / 40%MICH +7.5 · 44% / 60%
Over · 78% / 98%Under · 22% / 2%

DraftKings bettors, as of 4:15 AM ET. Top bar tickets, bottom bar handle. A 20-pt gap on the over suggests larger, sharper bets.

Broadcast

FOX
CrewTBA

Conditions & crew

KICKOFF FORECAST

Mostly Sunny
59°
mph ESE
3
Precip
0%
Surface
Turf
RefereeCrew TBA
RestIU 7d · MICH 7d