Indiana
#6 · 6-1#6 · 6-1 · 3-1 Big Ten · ATS 1-6
12:00 PM ET
Sat, Oct 24 · FOX
Michigan Stadium · Ann Arbor
WIN PROB
67%
IU
Michigan
4-24-2 · 1-2 Big Ten · ATS 2-4
- Spread
- IU −7.5
- Open −8 · −105
- Total
- 42.5
- Open 42.5 · o −112
- Model line
- IU −7.5
- Model total 51.6
- Win probability
- 67%
- Projected score
- 29.6 – 22.1
- IU – MICH
- Projected plays
- 117
- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
- IU −7.5
- open −8
- Model
- −7.5
- IU
- Total
- 42.5
- model 51.6
Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
PaceIU 27.5 s · MICH 31.8 s a snap · avg 131 plays117 plays vs 131 avgBIGGEST EDGE | — | — | 117 | U 6.3 |
  Indiana passvs Michigan pass Dvs MICH pass D | 5th+0.24 | 20th−0.11 | 28 | IU +5.0 |
  Michigan runvs Indiana run Dvs IU run D | 71st0.00 | 17th−0.09 | 34 | IU +4.7 |
| Indiana runvs Michigan run Dvs MICH run D | 77th−0.01 | 18th−0.08 | 30 | MICH +4.1 |
| Michigan passvs Indiana pass Dvs IU pass D | 71st−0.01 | 25th−0.09 | 25 | IU +3.6 |
BIGGEST EDGE · U 6.3
The pace fight
MICH snaps every 31.8 s, IU every 27.5 s in neutral situations. Each extra 10 plays moves the total about 4.4 points. The model projects 117 plays against a 131 average. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
OffenseMichigan
MICH OFFWhen Michigan has the ball
DefenseIndiana
IU DEF- +0.0474thEPA / play18th−0.06
- 41.4%75thSuccess rate12th37.1%
- 1.26104thExplosiveness72nd1.30
- +0.0771stRush EPA / play17th−0.02
- +0.1171stPass EPA / dropback25th+0.02
- 45.1%103rdStandard downs SR10th41.8%
- 32.7%35thPassing downs SR69th30.8%
- 3.1977thLine yards21st2.73
- 15.7%109thHavoc rate49th15.2%
- 3.69105thPoints / opportunity15th3.08
- +0.0290thEarly-down EPA / play30th−0.06
- 40.3%68th3rd-down conversion94th41.0%
- 13.3%39thStuff rate50th18.0%
- 5.8%92ndSack rate14th8.1%
- 64%68thRed zone TD rate16th46%
Indiana's defense rates higher in 12 of 15. Widest gap: standard-downs success rate (103rd vs 10th).
OffenseIndiana
IU OFFWhen Indiana has the ball
DefenseMichigan
MICH DEF- +0.2118thEPA / play20th−0.06
- 43.8%48thSuccess rate24th38.5%
- 1.442ndExplosiveness18th1.22
- +0.0677thRush EPA / play18th−0.01
- +0.355thPass EPA / dropback20th0.00
- 48.7%44thStandard downs SR22nd43.5%
- 31.7%54thPassing downs SR25th29.1%
- 3.2368thLine yards17th2.71
- 11.6%33rdHavoc rate55th15.0%
- 4.4961stPoints / opportunity14th3.08
- +0.2414thEarly-down EPA / play23rd−0.11
- 47.1%30th3rd-down conversion29th32.9%
- 16.2%77thStuff rate48th18.1%
- 4.2%50thSack rate27th7.3%
- 70%45thRed zone TD rate16th46%
Michigan's defense rates higher in 10 of 15. Widest gap: rush EPA (77th vs 18th).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | IUIU | MICHMICH | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 27.5 | 31.8 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 60.1 | 57.0 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 55.6% | 42.6% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | +3.5% | −6.6% | −2.0% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 46.6% | 40.8% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 26% | 18% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 29:36 | 28:16 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 31.8 | Own 29.5 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%