- Spread
- HAW −3.5
- Open −6.5 · −110
- Total
- 48
- Open 45.5 · o −110
- Model line
- HAW −3.5
- Model total 54.3
- Win probability
- 58%
- Projected score
- 28.9 – 25.4
- HAW – NIU
- Projected plays
- 133
- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
- HAW −3.5
- open −6.5
- Model
- −3.5
- HAW
- Total
- 48
- model 54.3
Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Northern Illinois passvs Hawai'i pass Dvs HAW pass DBIGGEST EDGE | 126th−0.15 | 109th+0.08 | 39 | HAW +3.9 |
  Hawai'i passvs Northern Illinois pass Dvs NIU pass D | 106th−0.08 | 127th+0.14 | 45 | HAW +3.9 |
| Northern Illinois runvs Hawai'i run Dvs HAW run D | 79th−0.02 | 113th+0.06 | 27 | NIU +1.9 |
| Hawai'i runvs Northern Illinois run Dvs NIU run D | 127th−0.11 | 133rd+0.13 | 22 | HAW +0.5 |
PaceHAW 25.8 s · NIU 27.1 s a snap · avg 131 plays133 plays vs 131 avg | — | — | 133 | O 0.5 |
BIGGEST EDGE · HAW +3.9
The Hawai'i pass defense vs Northern Illinois's passing game
Northern Illinois gains −0.04 EPA a play on the pass (126th); Hawai'i allows +0.20 (109th). About 39 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
When Northern Illinois has the ball
- −0.05113thEPA / play118th+0.16
- 38.5%118thSuccess rate121st46.6%
- 1.2796thExplosiveness34th1.26
- +0.0579thRush EPA / play113th+0.13
- −0.04126thPass EPA / dropback109th+0.20
- 45.4%97thStandard downs SR124th51.4%
- 27.4%125thPassing downs SR84th31.4%
- 3.4333rdLine yards114th3.38
- 15.5%107thHavoc rate110th12.4%
- 2.96133rdPoints / opportunity79th4.15
- +0.0387thEarly-down EPA / play85th+0.07
- 30.9%131st3rd-down conversion81st40.0%
- 17.5%94thStuff rate124th12.1%
- 8.0%117thSack rate93rd4.7%
- 50%119thRed zone TD rate110th70%
Hawai'i's defense rates higher in 8 of 15. Widest gap: line yards (33rd vs 114th).
When Hawai'i has the ball
- −0.06118thEPA / play137th+0.25
- 38.9%109thSuccess rate136th49.2%
- 1.25105thExplosiveness82nd1.31
- −0.04127thRush EPA / play133rd+0.19
- +0.04106thPass EPA / dropback127th+0.25
- 46.6%76thStandard downs SR135th52.6%
- 26.8%131stPassing downs SR132nd35.8%
- 3.00100thLine yards134th3.65
- 17.3%126thHavoc rate137th8.0%
- 3.03132ndPoints / opportunity133rd5.35
- −0.08127thEarly-down EPA / play135th+0.24
- 35.7%101st3rd-down conversion138th63.6%
- 19.5%116thStuff rate132nd10.8%
- 5.5%86thSack rate56th6.0%
- 33%136thRed zone TD rate124th76%
Hawai'i's offense rates higher in 12 of 15. Widest gap: standard-downs success rate (76th vs 135th).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | HAWHAW | NIUNIU | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 25.8 | 27.1 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 70.0 | 62.7 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 64.7% | 43.4% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | +16.2% | −7.8% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 61.2% | 41.4% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 22% | 30% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | — | 29:40 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 26.5 | Own 26.7 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%