Akron
1-61-6 · 0-3 MAC · ATS 3-4
1:00 PM ET
Sat, Oct 24 · ESPN+
Dix Stadium · Kent
WIN PROB
65%
KENT
Kent State
2-52-5 · 1-2 MAC · ATS 3-4
- Spread
- KENT −3
- Open −3.5 · −108
- Total
- 47.5
- Open 43.5 · o −110
- Model line
- KENT −6.2+3.2
- Model total 49.0
- Win probability
- 65%
- Projected score
- 21.4 – 27.6
- AKR – KENT
- Projected plays
- 127
- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
- KENT −3
- open −3.5
- Model
- −6.2+3.2
- KENT
- Total
- 47.5
- model 49.0
Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Akron passvs Kent State pass Dvs KENT pass DBIGGEST EDGE | 131st−0.18 | 74th+0.01 | 35 | KENT +8.7 |
PaceAKR 29.4 s · KENT 31.7 s a snap · avg 131 plays127 plays vs 131 avg | — | — | 127 | U 1.6 |
  Kent State passvs Akron pass Dvs AKR pass D | 116th−0.12 | 114th+0.10 | 32 | AKR +1.2 |
| Kent State runvs Akron run Dvs AKR run D | 129th−0.12 | 126th+0.10 | 32 | AKR +1.0 |
| Akron runvs Kent State run Dvs KENT run D | 80th−0.02 | 78th+0.01 | 29 | KENT +0.1 |
BIGGEST EDGE · KENT +8.7
The Kent State pass defense vs Akron's passing game
Akron gains −0.07 EPA a play on the pass (131st); Kent State allows +0.12 (74th). About 35 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
OffenseKent State
KENT OFFWhen Kent State has the ball
DefenseAkron
AKR DEF- −0.11132ndEPA / play122nd+0.18
- 34.9%135thSuccess rate116th46.1%
- 1.3064thExplosiveness110th1.35
- −0.05129thRush EPA / play126th+0.17
- −0.01116thPass EPA / dropback114th+0.21
- 40.4%136thStandard downs SR107th50.0%
- 28.7%112thPassing downs SR120th33.8%
- 2.65130thLine yards126th3.48
- 14.7%91stHavoc rate121st11.7%
- 2.38137thPoints / opportunity103rd4.44
- −0.12132ndEarly-down EPA / play112th+0.11
- 39.3%75th3rd-down conversion81st40.0%
- 21.4%125thStuff rate104th14.3%
- 4.9%66thSack rate138th1.1%
- 53%112thRed zone TD rate12th45%
Akron's defense rates higher in 10 of 15. Widest gap: red-zone TD rate (112th vs 12th).
OffenseAkron
AKR OFFWhen Akron has the ball
DefenseKent State
KENT DEF- −0.10129thEPA / play77th+0.08
- 38.5%118thSuccess rate112th45.5%
- 1.25111thExplosiveness27th1.24
- +0.0580thRush EPA / play78th+0.08
- −0.07131stPass EPA / dropback74th+0.12
- 45.7%90thStandard downs SR121st51.1%
- 27.8%120thPassing downs SR52nd30.1%
- 3.5223rdLine yards116th3.40
- 18.5%132ndHavoc rate87th13.4%
- 3.30122ndPoints / opportunity104th4.48
- −0.03113thEarly-down EPA / play108th+0.10
- 32.0%125th3rd-down conversion46th35.5%
- 15.5%71stStuff rate96th14.7%
- 8.6%125thSack rate30th7.2%
- 57%97thRed zone TD rate120th75%
Kent State's defense rates higher in 11 of 15. Widest gap: sack rate (125th vs 30th).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | AKRAKR | KENTKENT | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 29.4 | 31.7 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 64.4 | 62.9 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 45.9% | 51.6% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | −3.8% | +2.8% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 39.2% | 48.4% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 16% | 29% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 29:43 | 31:26 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 27.4 | Own 28.2 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%