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SAT 1:00 · ESPN+ · KENT
Akron
1-61-6 · 0-3 MAC · ATS 3-4
1:00 PM ET
Sat, Oct 24 · ESPN+
Dix Stadium · Kent
WIN PROB
65%
KENT
Kent State
2-52-5 · 1-2 MAC · ATS 3-4
Spread
KENT −3
Open −3.5 · −108
Total
47.5
Open 43.5 · o −110
Model line
KENT −6.2+3.2
Model total 49.0
Win probability
65%
Projected score
21.4 – 27.6
AKR – KENT
Projected plays
127
FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
Spread
KENT −3
open −3.5
Model
−6.2+3.2
KENT
Total
47.5
model 49.0

Where the model sees the game

EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED

Where the model sees the game: unit gaps and their model impact
Unit vs defenseOffense gainsOffDefense allowsDefPlaysModel impactImpact
Akron passvs Kent State pass Dvs KENT pass DBIGGEST EDGE
131st−0.1874th+0.0135KENT +8.7
PaceAKR 29.4 s · KENT 31.7 s a snap · avg 131 plays127 plays vs 131 avg
——127U 1.6
Kent State passvs Akron pass Dvs AKR pass D
116th−0.12114th+0.1032AKR +1.2
Kent State runvs Akron run Dvs AKR run D
129th−0.12126th+0.1032AKR +1.0
Akron runvs Kent State run Dvs KENT run D
80th−0.0278th+0.0129KENT +0.1

BIGGEST EDGE · KENT +8.7

The Kent State pass defense vs Akron's passing game

Akron gains −0.07 EPA a play on the pass (131st); Kent State allows +0.12 (74th). About 35 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.

OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.

OffenseKent State
KENT OFF

When Kent State has the ball

DefenseAkron
AKR DEF
  • −0.11132ndEPA / play122nd+0.18
  • 34.9%135thSuccess rate116th46.1%
  • 1.3064thExplosiveness110th1.35
  • −0.05129thRush EPA / play126th+0.17
  • −0.01116thPass EPA / dropback114th+0.21
  • 40.4%136thStandard downs SR107th50.0%
  • 28.7%112thPassing downs SR120th33.8%
  • 2.65130thLine yards126th3.48
  • 14.7%91stHavoc rate121st11.7%
  • 2.38137thPoints / opportunity103rd4.44
  • 53%112thRed zone TD rate12th45%

Akron's defense rates higher in 8 of 11. Widest gap: red-zone TD rate (112th vs 12th).

OffenseAkron
AKR OFF

When Akron has the ball

DefenseKent State
KENT DEF
  • −0.10129thEPA / play77th+0.08
  • 38.5%118thSuccess rate112th45.5%
  • 1.25111thExplosiveness27th1.24
  • +0.0580thRush EPA / play78th+0.08
  • −0.07131stPass EPA / dropback74th+0.12
  • 45.7%90thStandard downs SR121st51.1%
  • 27.8%120thPassing downs SR52nd30.1%
  • 3.5223rdLine yards116th3.40
  • 18.5%132ndHavoc rate87th13.4%
  • 3.30122ndPoints / opportunity104th4.48
  • 57%97thRed zone TD rate120th75%

Kent State's defense rates higher in 8 of 11. Widest gap: line yards (23rd vs 116th).

Tempo & tendencies

SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE

Tempo and tendencies, Akron and Kent State, season to date
MetricAKRAKRKENTKENTFBS avgFBS
Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral29.431.728.9
Plays per gamePlays per game64.462.965.7
Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral45.9%51.6%47.9%
Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS−3.8%+2.8%−1.9%
Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral39.2%48.4%44.6%
4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations16%29%27%
Time of possessionTime of possession29:4331:2630:11
Avg starting field positionAvg starting field positionOwn 27.4Own 28.2Own 29.8

Neutral = WP 20–80%

All tempo →

Injury report

MAC AVAILABILITY · DUE ~SAT · IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)

Akron

MAC REPORT EXPECTED ~SAT (GD)% TO PLAYIMPACT
No report yetMAC REPORT EXPECTED ~SAT (GD)
Week 7 game-day report18 OUT

Kent State

MAC REPORT EXPECTED ~SAT (GD)% TO PLAYIMPACT
No report yetMAC REPORT EXPECTED ~SAT (GD)
Week 7 game-day report6 OUT

Line movement

  • SUN 7:07PTotal 44.5 → 45.5
  • MON 12:00ATotal 45.5 → 46.5STEAM · 5 BOOKS
  • MON 12:12ATotal 45.5 → 46.5
  • THU 7:15PTotal 46.5 → 47.5

Steam = 4+ books in 5 min. RLM = line moves against the ticket majority.

Consensus market: open, now and model
Market · consensusMarketOpenNowModel
Spread KENT
−3.5−3−6.2
TotalSTEAM · 5 BOOKS
43.547.549.0
Moneyline KENT
−155−147−183

Bet splits

DRAFTKINGS · VIA DK NETWORK

AKR +3 · 41% / 3%KENT −3 · 59% / 97%
Over · 82% / 65%Under · 18% / 35%

DraftKings bettors, as of 5:45 AM ET. Top bar tickets, bottom bar handle. A 38-pt gap on KENT suggests larger, sharper bets.

Broadcast

ESPN+
Play-by-playMichael Reghi
AnalystBarrett Brooks

Crew as reported, not official.

Conditions & crew

KICKOFF FORECAST

Sunny
62°
mph ESE
2
Precip
0%
Surface
Turf
RefereeCrew TBA
RestAKR 7d · KENT 7d