Miami (OH)
4-34-3 · 2-1 MAC · ATS 4-3
1:00 PM ET
Sat, Oct 24 · ESPN+
Kelly/Shorts Stadium · Mount Pleasant
WIN PROB
58%
M-OH
Central Michigan
3-43-4 · 1-2 MAC · ATS 3-4
- Spread
- M-OH −3.5
- Open PK · −111
- Total
- 40
- Open 43.5 · o −110
- Model line
- M-OH −3.3
- Model total 51.8
- Win probability
- 58%
- Projected score
- 27.5 – 24.3
- M-OH – CMU
- Projected plays
- 115
- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
- M-OH −3.5
- open PK
- Model
- −3.3
- M-OH
- Total
- 40
- model 51.8
Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
PaceM-OH 31.8 s · CMU 34.0 s a snap · avg 131 plays115 plays vs 131 avgBIGGEST EDGE | — | — | 115 | U 7.2 |
  Central Michigan passvs Miami (OH) pass Dvs M-OH pass D | 137th−0.23 | 104th+0.07 | 20 | M-OH +4.9 |
  Miami (OH) runvs Central Michigan run Dvs CMU run D | 92nd−0.03 | 127th+0.10 | 29 | M-OH +2.6 |
| Miami (OH) passvs Central Michigan pass Dvs CMU pass D | 60th+0.01 | 62nd−0.01 | 29 | CMU +0.1 |
| Central Michigan runvs Miami (OH) run Dvs M-OH run D | 51st+0.03 | 55th−0.03 | 38 | M-OH +0.0 |
BIGGEST EDGE · U 7.2
The pace fight
CMU snaps every 34.0 s, M-OH every 31.8 s in neutral situations. Each extra 10 plays moves the total about 4.5 points. The model projects 115 plays against a 131 average. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
OffenseCentral Michigan
CMU OFFWhen Central Michigan has the ball
DefenseMiami (OH)
M-OH DEF- −0.07119thEPA / play90th+0.10
- 38.0%127thSuccess rate89th43.9%
- 1.19131stExplosiveness88th1.31
- +0.1051stRush EPA / play55th+0.04
- −0.12137thPass EPA / dropback104th+0.18
- 45.4%95thStandard downs SR71st47.6%
- 26.0%136thPassing downs SR112th33.2%
- 3.6116thLine yards32nd2.80
- 13.1%59thHavoc rate81st13.7%
- 3.14127thPoints / opportunity91st4.28
- −0.05116thEarly-down EPA / play49th0.00
- 29.0%135th3rd-down conversion102nd41.9%
- 10.2%7thStuff rate34th19.4%
- 7.1%104thSack rate98th4.6%
- 57%97thRed zone TD rate135th86%
Miami (OH)'s defense rates higher in 10 of 15. Widest gap: early-down EPA (116th vs 49th).
OffenseMiami (OH)
M-OH OFFWhen Miami (OH) has the ball
DefenseCentral Michigan
CMU DEF- +0.0569thEPA / play100th+0.12
- 38.6%117thSuccess rate124th47.2%
- 1.3817thExplosiveness12th1.21
- +0.0492ndRush EPA / play127th+0.17
- +0.1360thPass EPA / dropback62nd+0.10
- 44.1%117thStandard downs SR117th50.5%
- 30.4%85thPassing downs SR124th34.3%
- 3.1976thLine yards137th3.85
- 14.0%80thHavoc rate123rd11.6%
- 3.9491stPoints / opportunity60th3.91
- +0.1444thEarly-down EPA / play75th+0.05
- 34.3%107th3rd-down conversion130th48.6%
- 14.6%54thStuff rate135th9.2%
- 8.0%116thSack rate98th4.6%
- 57%97thRed zone TD rate110th70%
Miami (OH)'s offense rates higher in 11 of 15. Widest gap: stuff rate (54th vs 135th).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | M-OHM-OH | CMUCMU | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 31.8 | 34.0 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 56.4 | 59.0 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 52.7% | 33.0% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | +3.0% | −14.9% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 48.4% | 29.3% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 15% | 36% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 30:22 | 29:21 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 32.3 | Own 27.6 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%