Baylor vs Kansas

Baylor

4-24-2 · 2-1 Big 12 · ATS 4-2

1:00 PM ET

Sat, Oct 24 · TNT

Memorial Stadium · Lawrence

WIN PROB

53%

BAY

Kansas

2-42-4 · 0-3 Big 12 · ATS 2-4

Spread: BAY −1; Open −1.5 · −110
Total: 53; Open 54.5 · o −108
Model line: BAY −1.4; Model total 51.6
Win probability: 53%
Projected score: 26.5 – 25.1; BAY – KU
Projected plays: 150; FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play

Spread: BAY −1; open −1.5
Model: −1.4; BAY
Total: 53; model 51.6

Where the model sees the game

EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED

Where the model sees the game: unit gaps and their model impact
Unit vs defense	Offense gainsOff	Defense allowsDef	Plays	Model impactImpact
PaceBAY 22.6 s · KU 27.5 s a snap · avg 131 plays150 plays vs 131 avgBIGGEST EDGE	—	—	150	O 6.4
Baylor runvs Kansas run Dvs KU run D	118th−0.08	42nd−0.05	33	KU +5.9
Kansas runvs Baylor run Dvs BAY run D	60th+0.01	7th−0.11	39	BAY +5.7
Kansas passvs Baylor pass Dvs BAY pass D	69th0.00	40th−0.06	36	BAY +3.0
Baylor passvs Kansas pass Dvs KU pass D	56th+0.01	81st+0.02	42	BAY +2.0

BIGGEST EDGE · O 6.4

The pace fight

KU snaps every 27.5 s, BAY every 22.6 s in neutral situations. Each extra 10 plays moves the total about 3.4 points. The model projects 150 plays against a 131 average. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.

OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.

OffenseKansas

KU OFF

When Kansas has the ball

DefenseBaylor

BAY DEF

+0.0480thEPA / play27th−0.03
41.9%67thSuccess rate14th37.5%
1.3814thExplosiveness104th1.33
+0.0860thRush EPA / play7th−0.04
+0.1169thPass EPA / dropback40th+0.06
48.5%47thStandard downs SR9th41.7%
29.1%107thPassing downs SR58th30.3%
3.5124thLine yards8th2.61
16.1%119thHavoc rate6th20.1%
3.81100thPoints / opportunity32nd3.48
67%55thRed zone TD rate5th38%

Baylor's defense rates higher in 10 of 11. Widest gap: havoc rate (119th vs 6th).

OffenseBaylor

BAY OFF

When Baylor has the ball

DefenseKansas

KU DEF

+0.0475thEPA / play45th+0.02
39.7%100thSuccess rate31st39.3%
1.3815thExplosiveness89th1.32
−0.01118thRush EPA / play42nd+0.02
+0.1356thPass EPA / dropback81st+0.13
43.9%120thStandard downs SR35th45.4%
31.0%72ndPassing downs SR33rd29.3%
2.89120thLine yards34th2.81
15.5%108thHavoc rate37th15.7%
3.55117thPoints / opportunity29th3.41
46%131stRed zone TD rate55th57%

Kansas's defense rates higher in 9 of 11. Widest gap: points per opportunity (117th vs 29th).

Tempo & tendencies

SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE

Tempo and tendencies, Baylor and Kansas, season to date
Metric	BAYBAY	KUKU	FBS avgFBS
Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral	22.6	27.5	28.9
Plays per gamePlays per game	81.0	69.0	65.7
Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral	54.6%	41.6%	47.9%
Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS	+3.0%	−8.6%	−1.9%
Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral	48.0%	35.6%	44.6%
4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations	33%	39%	27%
Time of possessionTime of possession	30:13	29:27	30:11
Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position	Own 33.0	Own 27.1	Own 29.8

Neutral = WP 20–80%

All tempo →

Baylor

BIG 12 REPORT · FRI 10:00 PMNET −0.3% TO PLAYIMPACT

Out
Ashton Jones · WRAshton JonesWR · SOReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%0.0
Out
Cayden Tone · OLCayden ToneOL · SRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Devonte Tezino · DLDevonte TezinoDL · SRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Jacob Redding · SJacob ReddingS · SRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Jamarion Richardson · CBJamarion RichardsonCB · FRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Available
DJ Lagway · QBDJ LagwayQB · JR—
——
REPORTEDAVAILABLE
· perperZach Smith· 6d

Kansas

BIG 12 REPORT · FRI 10:00 PMNET −1.2% TO PLAYIMPACT

Out
Jaron Willis · LBJaron WillisLB · SRReport trail: Out, not listed, not listedT-3 → T-1· OFF LATEST
0%−0.1
Out
Kaden Moody · OLKaden MoodyOL · FRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Kasen Carpenter · OLKasen CarpenterOL · JRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.5
Out
Keaton Kubecka · WRKeaton KubeckaWR · JRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.4
Out
Mason Ellis · SMason EllisS · SRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Nate Sims · WRNate SimsWR · FRReport trail: Out, not listed, not listedT-3 → T-1· OFF LATEST
0%0.0
Out
Syeed Gibbs · CBSyeed GibbsCB · SRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Doubtful
Jaden Harris · SJaden HarrisS · SRReport trail: Doubtful, Doubtful, DoubtfulT-3 → T-1
25%0.0
Probable
Cole Ballard · QBCole BallardQB · JRReport trail: Probable, Probable, ProbableT-3 → T-1
79%−0.1

OFS OUT FOR SEASON · O OUT · D DOUBTFUL · Q QUESTIONABLE · GTD GAME-TIME DECISION · P PROBABLE · AV AVAILABLE

IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)

REPORTED = VERIFIED BEAT-WRITER POST, CONFIRMED BY A TARGETED X CHECK · OFFICIAL STAYS THE STATUS OF RECORD

Line movement

MON 8:30PSpread −2.5 → −3 · 46% tickets KUSpread −2.5 → −3 · 46% on KURLM
FRI 2:30PSpread −2.5 → −1STEAM · 4 BOOKS
FRI 2:41PSpread −2.5 → −1.5
FRI 9:30PSpread −2.5 → −1.5 · 54% tickets BAYSpread −2.5 → −1.5 · 54% on BAYRLM

Steam = 4+ books in 5 min. RLM = line moves against the ticket majority.

Consensus market: open, now and model
Market · consensusMarket	Open	Now	Model
Spread BAYSTEAM · 4 BOOKSRLM	−1.5	−1	−1.4
TotalSTEAM · 7 BOOKS	54.5	53.0	51.6
Moneyline BAY	−125	−116	−115

Bet splits

DRAFTKINGS · VIA DK NETWORK

BAY −1 · 54% / 62%KU +1 · 46% / 38%

Over · 54% / 8%Under · 46% / 92%

DraftKings bettors, as of 6:30 AM ET. Top bar tickets, bottom bar handle. A 46-pt gap on the under suggests larger, sharper bets.

Broadcast

TNT

CrewTBA

Conditions & crew

KICKOFF FORECAST

Mostly Sunny: 73°
mph S · G16: 10
Precip: 0%
Surface: Turf

RefereeCrew TBA

RestBAY 7d · KU 7d

Injury report

Baylor

Kansas

Line movement

Bet splits

Broadcast

Conditions & crew