Baylor
4-24-2 · 2-1 Big 12 · ATS 4-2
1:00 PM ET
Sat, Oct 24 · TNT
Memorial Stadium · Lawrence
WIN PROB
53%
BAY
Kansas
2-42-4 · 0-3 Big 12 · ATS 2-4
- Spread
- BAY −1
- Open −1.5 · −110
- Total
- 53
- Open 54.5 · o −108
- Model line
- BAY −1.4
- Model total 51.6
- Win probability
- 53%
- Projected score
- 26.5 – 25.1
- BAY – KU
- Projected plays
- 150
- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
- BAY −1
- open −1.5
- Model
- −1.4
- BAY
- Total
- 53
- model 51.6
Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
PaceBAY 22.6 s · KU 27.5 s a snap · avg 131 plays150 plays vs 131 avgBIGGEST EDGE | — | — | 150 | O 6.4 |
  Baylor runvs Kansas run Dvs KU run D | 118th−0.08 | 42nd−0.05 | 33 | KU +5.9 |
  Kansas runvs Baylor run Dvs BAY run D | 60th+0.01 | 7th−0.11 | 39 | BAY +5.7 |
| Kansas passvs Baylor pass Dvs BAY pass D | 69th0.00 | 40th−0.06 | 36 | BAY +3.0 |
| Baylor passvs Kansas pass Dvs KU pass D | 56th+0.01 | 81st+0.02 | 42 | BAY +2.0 |
BIGGEST EDGE · O 6.4
The pace fight
KU snaps every 27.5 s, BAY every 22.6 s in neutral situations. Each extra 10 plays moves the total about 3.4 points. The model projects 150 plays against a 131 average. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
OffenseKansas
KU OFFWhen Kansas has the ball
DefenseBaylor
BAY DEF- +0.0480thEPA / play27th−0.03
- 41.9%67thSuccess rate14th37.5%
- 1.3814thExplosiveness104th1.33
- +0.0860thRush EPA / play7th−0.04
- +0.1169thPass EPA / dropback40th+0.06
- 48.5%47thStandard downs SR9th41.7%
- 29.1%107thPassing downs SR58th30.3%
- 3.5124thLine yards8th2.61
- 16.1%119thHavoc rate6th20.1%
- 3.81100thPoints / opportunity32nd3.48
- +0.0580thEarly-down EPA / play12th−0.15
- 34.8%103rd3rd-down conversion67th38.4%
- 12.9%33rdStuff rate13th23.2%
- 2.9%21stSack rate9th8.4%
- 67%55thRed zone TD rate5th38%
Baylor's defense rates higher in 14 of 15. Widest gap: havoc rate (119th vs 6th).
OffenseBaylor
BAY OFFWhen Baylor has the ball
DefenseKansas
KU DEF- +0.0475thEPA / play45th+0.02
- 39.7%100thSuccess rate31st39.3%
- 1.3815thExplosiveness89th1.32
- −0.01118thRush EPA / play42nd+0.02
- +0.1356thPass EPA / dropback81st+0.13
- 43.9%120thStandard downs SR35th45.4%
- 31.0%72ndPassing downs SR33rd29.3%
- 2.89120thLine yards34th2.81
- 15.5%108thHavoc rate37th15.7%
- 3.55117thPoints / opportunity29th3.41
- −0.03114thEarly-down EPA / play72nd+0.04
- 40.2%69th3rd-down conversion66th38.4%
- 16.4%81stStuff rate22nd21.5%
- 4.7%58thSack rate90th4.8%
- 46%131stRed zone TD rate55th57%
Kansas's defense rates higher in 12 of 15. Widest gap: points per opportunity (117th vs 29th).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | BAYBAY | KUKU | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 22.6 | 27.5 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 81.0 | 69.0 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 54.6% | 41.6% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | +3.0% | −8.6% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 48.0% | 35.6% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 33% | 39% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 30:13 | 29:27 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 33.0 | Own 27.1 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%