BYU
#2 · 6-0#2 · 6-0 · 3-0 Big 12 · ATS 6-0
3:30 PM ET
Sat, Oct 24 · FOX
FBC Mortgage Stadium · Orlando
WIN PROB
73%
BYU
UCF
3-33-3 · 1-2 Big 12 · ATS 4-2
- Spread
- BYU −7.5
- Open −7 · −104
- Total
- 43.5
- Open 46 · o −110
- Model line
- BYU −10.2+2.7
- Model total 51.4
- Win probability
- 73%
- Projected score
- 30.8 – 20.6
- BYU – UCF
- Projected plays
- 121
- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
- BYU −7.5
- open −7
- Model
- −10.2+2.7
- BYU
- Total
- 43.5
- model 51.4
Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  UCF passvs BYU pass Dvs BYU pass DBIGGEST EDGE | 72nd−0.01 | 5th−0.19 | 31 | BYU +8.9 |
PaceBYU 29.7 s · UCF 30.6 s a snap · avg 131 plays121 plays vs 131 avg | — | — | 121 | U 4.5 |
  BYU passvs UCF pass Dvs UCF pass D | 26th+0.12 | 42nd−0.05 | 29 | BYU +2.6 |
| UCF runvs BYU run Dvs BYU run D | 74th−0.01 | 40th−0.05 | 30 | BYU +2.5 |
| BYU runvs UCF run Dvs UCF run D | 17th+0.10 | 27th−0.07 | 32 | BYU +1.5 |
BIGGEST EDGE · BYU +8.9
The BYU pass defense vs UCF's passing game
UCF gains +0.11 EPA a play on the pass (72nd); BYU allows −0.08 (5th). About 30 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
OffenseUCF
UCF OFFWhen UCF has the ball
DefenseBYU
BYU DEF- +0.0381stEPA / play11th−0.09
- 41.2%78thSuccess rate9th36.2%
- 1.2976thExplosiveness32nd1.25
- +0.0674thRush EPA / play40th+0.02
- +0.1172ndPass EPA / dropback5th−0.08
- 45.0%106thStandard downs SR6th41.5%
- 31.7%50thPassing downs SR47th29.8%
- 2.91115thLine yards17th2.72
- 13.4%65thHavoc rate15th18.0%
- 5.692ndPoints / opportunity21st3.19
- 75%14thRed zone TD rate86th64%
BYU's defense rates higher in 9 of 11. Widest gap: standard-downs success rate (106th vs 6th).
OffenseBYU
BYU OFFWhen BYU has the ball
DefenseUCF
UCF DEF- +0.2312thEPA / play26th−0.03
- 49.1%8thSuccess rate33rd39.4%
- 1.26102ndExplosiveness37th1.26
- +0.1717thRush EPA / play27th0.00
- +0.2326thPass EPA / dropback42nd+0.06
- 54.0%4thStandard downs SR35th45.4%
- 32.0%46thPassing downs SR46th29.7%
- 3.756thLine yards13th2.67
- 6.6%1stHavoc rate45th15.4%
- 5.487thPoints / opportunity26th3.35
- 83%8thRed zone TD rate28th50%
BYU's offense rates higher in 9 of 11. Widest gap: explosiveness (102nd vs 37th).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | BYUBYU | UCFUCF | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 29.7 | 30.6 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 60.0 | 60.8 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 53.6% | 51.3% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | +4.5% | +4.8% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 53.5% | 51.7% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 18% | 31% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 31:21 | 28:13 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 30.0 | Own 32.5 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%
All tempo →Injury report
BIG 12 AVAILABILITY · FRI 10:00 PM · IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)
- OutLJ Martin · RBLJ MartinRB · SRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-10%−1.3
- QuestionableKyle Sfarcioc · OLKyle SfarciocOL · SRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, QuestionableT-3 → T-179%−0.1
- AvailableTommy Prassas · STommy PrassasS · SOReport trail: Probable, Available, AvailableT-3 → T-1100%0.0
- OutCaleb Rollerson · WRCaleb RollersonWR · SOReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-10%−0.2
- OutDJ Bell · DBDJ BellDB · SRReport trail: Doubtful, Out, OutT-3 → T-10%−0.2
- OutLewis Carter · LBLewis CarterLB · SRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-10%−0.3
- OutOwen Spell · OLOwen SpellOL · SRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-10%−0.5
- OutRJ Jackson Jr. · DTRJ Jackson Jr.DT · SRReport trail: Doubtful, Doubtful, OutT-3 → T-10%−0.3
- OutTaevion Swint · RBTaevion SwintRB · FRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-10%0.0
- OutTyler Gibson · OLTyler GibsonOL · SRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-10%−0.1
- QuestionableAlonza Barnett III · QBAlonza Barnett IIIQB · SRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, QuestionableT-3 → T-179%0.0
- QuestionableJacob Maiava · OLJacob MaiavaOL · FRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, QuestionableT-3 → T-179%−0.1
- ProbableBruno Dall · EDGEBruno DallEDGE · JRReport trail: Probable, Probable, ProbableT-3 → T-179%0.0
- ProbableDuane Thomas Jr. · WRDuane Thomas Jr.WR · SRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, ProbableT-3 → T-179%−0.2
- ProbableJayden Jennings · LBJayden JenningsLB · SRReport trail: Probable, Probable, ProbableT-3 → T-179%0.0
- ProbableKyle Hicks · LSKyle HicksLS · SOReport trail: Probable, Probable, ProbableT-3 → T-179%−0.1
- ProbableTrenton Turner · DTTrenton TurnerDT · FRReport trail: Probable, Probable, ProbableT-3 → T-179%0.0
- AvailableDylan Burk · TEDylan BurkTE · SOReport trail: Probable, Probable, AvailableT-3 → T-1100%0.0
- AvailableJahleel Culbreath · LBJahleel CulbreathLB · SRReport trail: Probable, Probable, AvailableT-3 → T-1100%0.0
OFS OUT FOR SEASON · O OUT · D DOUBTFUL · Q QUESTIONABLE · GTD GAME-TIME DECISION · P PROBABLE · AV AVAILABLE
IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)
Line movement
−9
−8
−7
−10.2MODEL- SUN 5:00PTotal 45.5 → 44.5STEAM · 4 BOOKS
- SUN 5:12PTotal 45.5 → 44.5
- MON 10:14ATotal 44.5 → 43.5
- FRI 1:41PSpread −6.5 → −7.5
Steam = 4+ books in 5 min. RLM = line moves against the ticket majority.
| Market · consensusMarket | Open | Now | Model |
|---|---|---|---|
Spread BYURLM | −7 | −7.5 | −10.2 |
TotalSTEAM · 4 BOOKS | 46.0 | 43.5 | 51.4 |
Moneyline BYU | −269 | −285 | −274 |
Bet splits
DRAFTKINGS · VIA DK NETWORK
BYU −7.5 · 62% / 50%UCF +7.5 · 38% / 50%
Over · 96% / 98%Under · 4% / 2%
DraftKings bettors, as of 7:30 AM ET. Top bar tickets, bottom bar handle. A 12-pt gap on UCF suggests larger, sharper bets.
Broadcast
FOXCrewTBA
Conditions & crew
KICKOFF FORECAST
- Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
- 81°
- mph NNE · G25
- 15
- Precip
- 28%
- Surface
- Grass
RefereeCrew TBA
RestBYU 7d · UCF 14dUCF OFF BYE