Houston vs Utah

Houston

#14 · 6-1#14 · 6-1 · 3-1 Big 12 · ATS 3-4

10:15 PM ET

Sat, Oct 24 · ESPN

Rice-Eccles Stadium · Salt Lake City

WIN PROB

61%

UTAH

Utah

#10 · 6-0#10 · 6-0 · 3-0 Big 12 · ATS 5-1

Spread: UTAH −6.5; Open −6.5 · −115
Total: 57; Open 56.5 · o −110
Model line: UTAH −4.5+2.0; Model total 60.8
Win probability: 61%
Projected score: 28.2 – 32.7; HOU – UTAH
Projected plays: 140; FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play

Spread: UTAH −6.5; open −6.5
Model: −4.5+2.0; UTAH
Total: 57; model 60.8

Where the model sees the game

EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED

Where the model sees the game: unit gaps and their model impact
Unit vs defense	Offense gainsOff	Defense allowsDef	Plays	Model impactImpact
Houston passvs Utah pass Dvs UTAH pass DBIGGEST EDGE	2nd+0.28	24th−0.09	32	HOU +8.4
Utah passvs Houston pass Dvs HOU pass D	24th+0.12	76th+0.01	36	UTAH +6.9
PaceHOU 29.9 s · UTAH 27.7 s a snap · avg 131 plays140 plays vs 131 avg	—	—	140	O 3.9
Utah runvs Houston run Dvs HOU run D	12th+0.11	46th−0.04	35	UTAH +3.3
Houston runvs Utah run Dvs UTAH run D	15th+0.10	44th−0.05	39	HOU +3.1

BIGGEST EDGE · HOU +8.4

Houston's passing game vs the Utah pass defense

Houston gains +0.39 EPA a play on the pass (2nd); Utah allows +0.02 (24th). About 31 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.

OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.

OffenseUtah

UTAH OFF

When Utah has the ball

DefenseHouston

HOU DEF

+0.2215thEPA / play56th+0.03
48.7%10thSuccess rate51st41.1%
1.3533rdExplosiveness89th1.32
+0.1812thRush EPA / play46th+0.03
+0.2324thPass EPA / dropback76th+0.13
50.6%24thStandard downs SR58th46.6%
36.6%5thPassing downs SR74th31.0%
3.5025thLine yards56th3.00
13.8%77thHavoc rate8th19.2%
5.418thPoints / opportunity124th4.92
75%14thRed zone TD rate126th76%

Utah's offense rates higher in 10 of 11. Widest gap: points per opportunity (8th vs 124th).

OffenseHouston

HOU OFF

When Houston has the ball

DefenseUtah

UTAH DEF

+0.282ndEPA / play34th−0.01
52.1%1stSuccess rate22nd38.3%
1.26101stExplosiveness59th1.29
+0.1715thRush EPA / play44th+0.02
+0.392ndPass EPA / dropback24th+0.02
53.6%6thStandard downs SR13th43.0%
39.5%1stPassing downs SR59th30.4%
3.5917thLine yards26th2.78
9.1%9thHavoc rate16th17.9%
4.6550thPoints / opportunity28th3.40
69%49thRed zone TD rate28th50%

Houston's offense rates higher in 8 of 11. Widest gap: passing-downs success rate (1st vs 59th).

Tempo & tendencies

SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE

Tempo and tendencies, Houston and Utah, season to date
Metric	HOUHOU	UTAHUTAH	FBS avgFBS
Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral	29.9	27.7	28.9
Plays per gamePlays per game	70.3	70.0	65.7
Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral	47.3%	57.1%	47.9%
Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS	+3.6%	+4.5%	−1.9%
Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral	46.5%	55.6%	44.6%
4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations	30%	30%	27%
Time of possessionTime of possession	33:33	33:38	30:11
Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position	Own 34.1	Own 31.8	Own 29.8

Neutral = WP 20–80%

All tempo →

Houston

BIG 12 REPORT · FRI 10:00 PMNET −0.5% TO PLAYIMPACT

Out
De'Marion Thomas · DLDe'Marion ThomasDL · SRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.2
Out
Jaden Yates · LBJaden YatesLB · SRReport trail: Available, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.3
Probable
Ejiro Egodogbare · DLEjiro EgodogbareDL · SRReport trail: Probable, Probable, ProbableT-3 → T-1
79%0.0
Probable
Hayden Wright · OLHayden WrightOL · SOReport trail: Probable, Probable, ProbableT-3 → T-1
79%0.0
Probable
JD Rhym · DBJD RhymDB · SRReport trail: Probable, Probable, ProbableT-3 → T-1
79%0.0
Probable
Tyson Turner · WRTyson TurnerWR · JRReport trail: Probable, Probable, ProbableT-3 → T-1
79%0.0

Utah

BIG 12 REPORT · FRI 10:00 PMNET −0.4% TO PLAYIMPACT

Out
JC Hart · CBJC HartCB · SRReport trail: Available, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Jamal Wallace · DTJamal WallaceDT · SRReport trail: Available, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Kelvin Obot · OLKelvin ObotOL · FRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.3
Out
Preston Pitts · LBPreston PittsLB · FRReport trail: Out, not listed, not listedT-3 → T-1· OFF LATEST
0%−0.1

OFS OUT FOR SEASON · O OUT · D DOUBTFUL · Q QUESTIONABLE · GTD GAME-TIME DECISION · P PROBABLE · AV AVAILABLE

IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)

Line movement

SUN 6:12ASpread −6.5 → −5.5
SUN 6:12ATotal 56.5 → 55.5
SUN 11:12ATotal 55.5 → 56.5
SUN 4:07PSpread −5.5 → −6.5

Consensus market: open, now and model
Market · consensusMarket	Open	Now	Model
Spread UTAH	−6.5	−6.5	−4.5
Total	56.5	57.0	60.8
Moneyline UTAH	−230	−255	−155

Bet splits

DRAFTKINGS · VIA DK NETWORK

HOU +6.5 · 32% / 36%UTAH −6.5 · 68% / 64%

Over · 71% / 88%Under · 29% / 12%

DraftKings bettors, as of 5:45 AM ET. Top bar tickets, bottom bar handle. A 17-pt gap on the over suggests larger, sharper bets.

Broadcast

ESPN

Play-by-playTom Hart

AnalystRoddy Jones

SidelineQuint Kessenich

Crew as reported, not official.

Conditions & crew

KICKOFF FORECAST

Partly Cloudy: 49°
mph WNW · G9: 3
Precip: 2%
Surface: Turf

RefereeCrew TBA

RestHOU 7d · UTAH 7d

Injury report

Houston

Utah

Line movement

Bet splits

Broadcast

Conditions & crew