Houston
#14 · 6-1#14 · 6-1 · 3-1 Big 12 · ATS 3-4
10:15 PM ET
Sat, Oct 24 · ESPN
Rice-Eccles Stadium · Salt Lake City
WIN PROB
61%
UTAH
Utah
#10 · 6-0#10 · 6-0 · 3-0 Big 12 · ATS 5-1
- Spread
- UTAH −6.5
- Open −6.5 · −115
- Total
- 57.5
- Open 56.5 · o −110
- Model line
- UTAH −4.5+2.0
- Model total 60.8
- Win probability
- 61%
- Projected score
- 28.2 – 32.7
- HOU – UTAH
- Projected plays
- 140
- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
- UTAH −6.5
- open −6.5
- Model
- −4.5+2.0
- UTAH
- Total
- 57.5
- model 60.8
Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Houston passvs Utah pass Dvs UTAH pass DBIGGEST EDGE | 2nd+0.28 | 24th−0.09 | 32 | HOU +8.4 |
  Utah passvs Houston pass Dvs HOU pass D | 24th+0.12 | 76th+0.01 | 36 | UTAH +6.9 |
PaceHOU 29.9 s · UTAH 27.7 s a snap · avg 131 plays140 plays vs 131 avg | — | — | 140 | O 3.9 |
| Utah runvs Houston run Dvs HOU run D | 12th+0.11 | 46th−0.04 | 35 | UTAH +3.3 |
| Houston runvs Utah run Dvs UTAH run D | 15th+0.10 | 44th−0.05 | 39 | HOU +3.1 |
BIGGEST EDGE · HOU +8.4
Houston's passing game vs the Utah pass defense
Houston gains +0.39 EPA a play on the pass (2nd); Utah allows +0.02 (24th). About 31 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
OffenseUtah
UTAH OFFWhen Utah has the ball
DefenseHouston
HOU DEF- +0.2215thEPA / play56th+0.03
- 48.7%10thSuccess rate51st41.1%
- 1.3533rdExplosiveness89th1.32
- +0.1812thRush EPA / play46th+0.03
- +0.2324thPass EPA / dropback76th+0.13
- 50.6%24thStandard downs SR58th46.6%
- 36.6%5thPassing downs SR74th31.0%
- 3.5025thLine yards56th3.00
- 13.8%77thHavoc rate8th19.2%
- 5.418thPoints / opportunity124th4.92
- +0.2416thEarly-down EPA / play107th+0.10
- 53.2%9th3rd-down conversion48th35.5%
- 18.5%103rdStuff rate75th16.1%
- 4.0%42ndSack rate104th4.3%
- 75%14thRed zone TD rate126th76%
Utah's offense rates higher in 13 of 15. Widest gap: points per opportunity (8th vs 124th).
OffenseHouston
HOU OFFWhen Houston has the ball
DefenseUtah
UTAH DEF- +0.282ndEPA / play34th−0.01
- 52.1%1stSuccess rate22nd38.3%
- 1.26101stExplosiveness59th1.29
- +0.1715thRush EPA / play44th+0.02
- +0.392ndPass EPA / dropback24th+0.02
- 53.6%6thStandard downs SR13th43.0%
- 39.5%1stPassing downs SR59th30.4%
- 3.5917thLine yards26th2.78
- 9.1%9thHavoc rate16th17.9%
- 4.6550thPoints / opportunity28th3.40
- +0.2319thEarly-down EPA / play20th−0.11
- 61.0%1st3rd-down conversion13th30.2%
- 10.7%14thStuff rate17th22.2%
- 3.0%25thSack rate128th2.8%
- 69%49thRed zone TD rate28th50%
Houston's offense rates higher in 12 of 15. Widest gap: sack rate (25th vs 128th).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | HOUHOU | UTAHUTAH | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 29.9 | 27.7 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 70.3 | 70.0 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 47.3% | 57.1% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | +3.6% | +4.5% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 46.5% | 55.6% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 30% | 30% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 33:33 | 33:38 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 34.1 | Own 31.8 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%