Big 12 · #14 AP · 6-1 · 3-1 CONF · ATS 3-4 · O/U 5-2
Houston Cougars
HC Willie Fritz (2nd yr) · OC Slade Nagle · DC Austin Armstrong
STARTS IN 11 PERSONNEL (4 OF 7) · BASE D 4-2-5 · SHOTGUN 92%
Big 12 · #14 AP · 6-1 · 3-1 CONF · ATS 3-4 · O/U 5-2
Houston
Cougars · HC Willie Fritz (2nd yr) · starts in 11 (4 of 7) · base D 4-2-5
Houston
#14 · 6-1 · 3-1 Big 12
1 loss now · CFP 36% in sims · CCG 23% · title 10%
Latest from the beat
HOUSTON · LAST 72 HLAST 72 H
All coverage →No verified updates in the last 72 hours.
Schedule & resultsSchedule
POSTGAME WE = HOW OFTEN THIS BOX SCORE WINS · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PREGAME WPCLOSING LINES · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PROJECTED LINEFUTURE LINES PROJECTED
Wk | Opponent | Result | Line | ATS | Net EPA | Off SR | Def SR | Win prob | Plays | s/play | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |   Oregon StateOregon State | W33–20 | −21−21 | L | +0.14 | 47% | 41% | 77% | 72 | 26.5 | |
| 2 |  SouthernSouthern | W77–6 | −52−52 | W | +1.70 | 68% | 19% | 100% | 64 | 33.0 | |
| 3 |   at Texas Techat Texas Tech | L26–28 | +8+8 | W | −0.10 | 53% | 49% | 50% | 74 | 26.8 | |
| 4 |   at Georgia Southernat Georgia Southern | W42–28 | −17.5−17.5 | L | +0.27 | 62% | 48% | 80% | 61 | 28.6 | |
| 5 |   UCFUCF | W27–17 | −10.5−10.5 | L | +0.21 | 50% | 29% | 82% | 76 | 27.4 | |
| 6 |   at Kansas Stateat Kansas State | W35–16 | +2.5+2.5 | W | +0.51 | 51% | 44% | 87% | 74 | 29.1 | |
| 7 |   Oklahoma StateOklahoma State | W35–32 | −4−4 | L | +0.15 | 56% | 54% | 60% | 71 | 30.5 | |
| 8 |   at Utahat UtahNEXT | SAT 10:15 ESPNSAT 10:15 | +6.5+6.5 | — | — | — | — | 39% | 140 | — | |
| 9 | BYE | ||||||||||
| 10 |   CincinnatiCincinnati | NOV 7NOV 7 | −13.3 proj−13.3 | 79% | |||||||
| 11 |   at Coloradoat Colorado | NOV 13NOV 13 | −10 proj−10 | 73% | |||||||
| 12 |   at West Virginiaat West Virginia | NOV 21NOV 21 | −16 proj−16 | 83% | |||||||
| 13 |   BaylorBaylor | NOV 28NOV 28 | −10.5 proj−10.5 | 74% |
Success rate by down & distance
Formation & personnelFormation
PBP TAGS · 445 OF 450 PLAYS445 OF 450 PLAYS TAGGED
LookLook · usage | Usage | Pass %Pass | EPA/playEPA | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shotgun92% | 92% | 47% | +0.32 | 53% |
| Under center8% | 8% | 19% | +0.30 | 67% |
| No-huddle83% | 83% | 46% | +0.34 | 54% |
| Huddle17% | 17% | 39% | +0.19 | 52% |
In shotgun on 92 % of tagged snaps, passing 47 % of the time (+0.32 EPA a play; +0.30 under center). No-huddle on 83 %. Starts in 11 personnel in 4 of 7 games. Base defense 4-2-5 (7 of 7).
Next game
SAT 10:15 ESPN · RICE-ECCLES STADIUMSAT 10:15 ESPN
TOP INJURY · OFFICIAL REPORT
% to play = 1 − P(out) · expected return not reported
Refs
JUDGMENT FLAGS OVER EXPECTED · 2026FLAGS OVER EXPECTED / G · 2026
Crews from | FOE / G | 90% range | Games | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Big 12 crews−0.3 to +0.6 · 37 games | +0.2 | −0.3 to +0.6 | 37 | NOISE |
| American crews−0.9 to +0.2 · 13 games | −0.4 | −0.9 to +0.2 | 13 | NOISE |
| C-USA crews— · 2 games | +1.5 | — | 2 | NOISE |
| Big Ten crews— · 1 game | −1.8 | — | 1 | NOISE |
| Pac-12 crews— · 1 game | −1.8 | — | 1 | NOISE |
| Sun Belt crews— · 1 game | −0.4 | — | 1 | NOISE |
+ = more judgment flags on Houston than expected · 2026 only: crews known for 7 of 8 games · no lean before 8 gamesJudgment flags only, 2026 · crews known for 7 of 8 games · + = more on Houston than expected · no lean before 8 games
Key players
Unit statsEfficiency
OPP-ADJUSTED · RANK OF 138 FBSFBS RANK · OPP-ADJUSTED
MetricStat | HoustonHOU | RankRK | FBS avgVS FBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPA / play | +0.28 | 3rd | +0.06 |
| Success rate | 52.1% | 1st | 42.3% |
| Explosiveness | 1.26 | 102nd | 1.30 |
| Rush EPA / play | +0.17 | 16th | +0.07 |
| Pass EPA / play | +0.39 | 2nd | +0.11 |
| Passing downs SR | 39.5% | 1st | 31.1% |
| Line yards | 3.59 | 18th | 3.21 |
| Sack rate allowed | 3.0% | 25th | 5.3% |
| 3rd-down conversion | 61% | 1st | 41% |
| Points / opportunity | 4.65 | 52nd | 4.27 |
| Red zone TD rate | 69% | 48th | 63% |
| Seconds / play | 28.3 | 75th | 28.0 |