Boston College vs Georgia Tech

Boston College

3-33-3 · 1-2 ACC · ATS 4-2

3:30 PM ET

Sat, Oct 24 · ACC Network

Bobby Dodd Stadium · Atlanta

WIN PROB

58%

Georgia Tech

2-42-4 · 1-2 ACC · ATS 1-5

Spread: GT −6; Open −4.5 · −110
Total: 50; Open 50 · o −110
Model line: GT −3.4+2.6; Model total 54.0
Win probability: 58%
Projected score: 25.3 – 28.7; BC – GT
Projected plays: 124; FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play

Spread: GT −6; open −4.5
Model: −3.4+2.6; GT
Total: 50; model 54.0

Where the model sees the game

EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED

Where the model sees the game: unit gaps and their model impact
Unit vs defense	Offense gainsOff	Defense allowsDef	Plays	Model impactImpact
Georgia Tech passvs Boston College pass Dvs BC pass DBIGGEST EDGE	65th0.00	33rd−0.07	35	BC +3.2
PaceBC 31.7 s · GT 27.9 s a snap · avg 131 plays124 plays vs 131 avg	—	—	124	U 3.1
Boston College runvs Georgia Tech run Dvs GT run D	91st−0.03	121st+0.08	33	BC +2.4
Boston College passvs Georgia Tech pass Dvs GT pass D	118th−0.13	121st+0.12	29	GT +0.4
Georgia Tech runvs Boston College run Dvs BC run D	64th+0.01	62nd−0.01	27	BC +0.3

BIGGEST EDGE · BC +3.2

The Boston College pass defense vs Georgia Tech's passing game

Georgia Tech gains +0.12 EPA a play on the pass (65th); Boston College allows +0.05 (33rd). About 35 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.

OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.

OffenseGeorgia Tech

GT OFF

When Georgia Tech has the ball

DefenseBoston College

BC DEF

+0.0665thEPA / play42nd+0.01
43.8%47thSuccess rate61st41.6%
1.3067thExplosiveness24th1.24
+0.0864thRush EPA / play62nd+0.06
+0.1265thPass EPA / dropback33rd+0.05
48.5%47thStandard downs SR53rd46.4%
31.3%59thPassing downs SR100th32.3%
3.1389thLine yards73rd3.12
15.8%114thHavoc rate54th15.0%
4.0384thPoints / opportunity31st3.47
52%114thRed zone TD rate74th62%

Boston College's defense rates higher in 8 of 11. Widest gap: havoc rate (114th vs 54th).

OffenseBoston College

BC OFF

When Boston College has the ball

DefenseGeorgia Tech

GT DEF

−0.07121stEPA / play127th+0.20
38.9%109thSuccess rate95th44.2%
1.3152ndExplosiveness128th1.39
+0.0491stRush EPA / play121st+0.15
−0.01118thPass EPA / dropback121st+0.23
43.9%121stStandard downs SR44th45.8%
30.5%80thPassing downs SR137th37.4%
3.0896thLine yards113th3.38
17.4%127thHavoc rate115th12.1%
3.19126thPoints / opportunity73rd4.09
50%119thRed zone TD rate28th50%

Boston College's offense rates higher in 6 of 11. Widest gap: red-zone TD rate (119th vs 28th).

Tempo & tendencies

SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE

Tempo and tendencies, Boston College and Georgia Tech, season to date
Metric	BCBC	GTGT	FBS avgFBS
Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral	31.7	27.9	28.9
Plays per gamePlays per game	62.8	61.5	65.7
Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral	46.7%	54.7%	47.9%
Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS	−2.5%	+6.2%	−1.9%
Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral	43.1%	49.6%	44.6%
4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations	35%	24%	27%
Time of possessionTime of possession	30:27	27:12	30:11
Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position	Own 29.1	Own 27.6	Own 29.8

Neutral = WP 20–80%

All tempo →

Boston College

ACC REPORT · FRI 8:00 PMNET −1.3% TO PLAYIMPACT

Out for season
Isaiah Farris · DBIsaiah FarrisDB · SRSeason ·Report trail: Out for season, Out for season, Out for seasonT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out for season
Kaelan Chudzinski · TEKaelan ChudzinskiTE · SOSeason ·Report trail: Out for season, Out for season, Out for seasonT-3 → T-1
0%0.0
Out for season
Sedric Addison · RBSedric AddisonRB · FRSeason ·Report trail: Out for season, Out for season, Out for seasonT-3 → T-1
0%0.0
Out
Cameron Martinez · DBCameron MartinezDB · SRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Evan Dickens · RBEvan DickensRB · JRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.8
Out
Gavin Neil · DLGavin NeilDL · FRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Justin Medlock · LBJustin MedlockLB · SRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Pape Abdoulaye Sy · OLPape Abdoulaye SyOL · SOReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Reed Swanson · WRReed SwansonWR · JRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Available
Demetrius Ballard · EDGEDemetrius BallardEDGE · SOReport trail: Questionable, Available, AvailableT-3 → T-1
100%0.0

Georgia Tech

ACC REPORT · FRI 8:00 PMNET −3.6% TO PLAYIMPACT

Out for season
Kyle Efford · LBKyle EffordLB · SRSeason ·Report trail: Out for season, Out for season, Out for seasonT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
A.J. Hoffler · EDGEA.J. HofflerEDGE · SRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.3
Out
Daiquan White · CBDaiquan WhiteCB · SRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.2
Out
Ethan Mackenny · OLEthan MackennyOL · SRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.5
Out
Fenix Felton · SFenix FeltonS · SOReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Jaedyn Terry · CBJaedyn TerryCB · FRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Kentrell Davis · WRKentrell DavisWR · FRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%0.0
Out
Landen Marshall · DTLanden MarshallDT · JRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Malachi Hosley · RBMalachi HosleyRB · SRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Markell Samuel · OLMarkell SamuelOL · SRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Noah Carter · EDGENoah CarterEDGE · JRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.5
Out
Savion Riley · SSavion RileyS · SRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.4
Out
Shymeik Jones · DTShymeik JonesDT · SRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.3
Out
Will Kiker · SWill KikerS · SRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Doubtful
Tawfiq Thomas · DTTawfiq ThomasDT · SRReport trail: Doubtful, Doubtful, DoubtfulT-3 → T-1
25%−0.7
Questionable
Jordan Walker · EDGEJordan WalkerEDGE · SRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, QuestionableT-3 → T-1
79%−0.1
Questionable
Josh Petty · OLJosh PettyOL · SOReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, QuestionableT-3 → T-1
79%0.0
Questionable
Kelvin Hill · CBKelvin HillCB · JRReport trail: Available, Available, QuestionableT-3 → T-1
79%−0.1
Questionable
Vincent Carroll-Jackson · DTVincent Carroll-JacksonDT · SRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, QuestionableT-3 → T-1
79%−0.1

OFS OUT FOR SEASON · O OUT · D DOUBTFUL · Q QUESTIONABLE · GTD GAME-TIME DECISION · AV AVAILABLE

IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)

Line movement

THU 3:24PTotal 49.5 → 50.5
THU 4:09PSpread −4.5 → −5.5
FRI 12:30PSpread −5 → −6STEAM · 4 BOOKS
FRI 1:00PSpread −5.5 → −6 · 57% tickets BCSpread −5.5 → −6 · 57% on BCRLM

Steam = 4+ books in 5 min. RLM = line moves against the ticket majority.

Consensus market: open, now and model
Market · consensusMarket	Open	Now	Model
Spread GTSTEAM · 4 BOOKSRLM	−4.5	−6	−3.4
TotalSTEAM · 4 BOOKS	50.0	50.0	54.0
Moneyline GT	−200	−232	−138

Bet splits

DRAFTKINGS · VIA DK NETWORK

BC +6 · 57% / 35%GT −6 · 43% / 65%

Over · 25% / 0%Under · 75% / 100%

DraftKings bettors, as of 5:45 AM ET. Top bar tickets, bottom bar handle. A 25-pt gap on the under suggests larger, sharper bets.

Broadcast

ACC Network

Play-by-playRoxy Bernstein

AnalystDave Clawson

SidelineMadison Hock

Crew as reported, not official.

Conditions & crew

KICKOFF FORECAST

Sunny: 69°
mph ENE · G17: 10
Precip: 0%
Surface: Turf

RefereeCrew TBA

RestBC 7d · GT 7d

Injury report

Boston College

Georgia Tech

Line movement

Bet splits

Broadcast

Conditions & crew