- Spread
- GT −6
- Open −4.5 · −110
- Total
- 50
- Open 50 · o −110
- Model line
- GT −3.4+2.6
- Model total 54.0
- Win probability
- 58%
- Projected score
- 25.3 – 28.7
- BC – GT
- Projected plays
- 124
- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
- GT −6
- open −4.5
- Model
- −3.4+2.6
- GT
- Total
- 50
- model 54.0
Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Georgia Tech passvs Boston College pass Dvs BC pass DBIGGEST EDGE | 65th0.00 | 33rd−0.07 | 35 | BC +3.2 |
PaceBC 31.7 s · GT 27.9 s a snap · avg 131 plays124 plays vs 131 avg | — | — | 124 | U 3.1 |
  Boston College runvs Georgia Tech run Dvs GT run D | 91st−0.03 | 121st+0.08 | 33 | BC +2.4 |
| Boston College passvs Georgia Tech pass Dvs GT pass D | 118th−0.13 | 121st+0.12 | 29 | GT +0.4 |
| Georgia Tech runvs Boston College run Dvs BC run D | 64th+0.01 | 62nd−0.01 | 27 | BC +0.3 |
BIGGEST EDGE · BC +3.2
The Boston College pass defense vs Georgia Tech's passing game
Georgia Tech gains +0.12 EPA a play on the pass (65th); Boston College allows +0.05 (33rd). About 35 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
When Georgia Tech has the ball
- +0.0665thEPA / play42nd+0.01
- 43.8%47thSuccess rate61st41.6%
- 1.3067thExplosiveness24th1.24
- +0.0864thRush EPA / play62nd+0.06
- +0.1265thPass EPA / dropback33rd+0.05
- 48.5%47thStandard downs SR53rd46.4%
- 31.3%59thPassing downs SR100th32.3%
- 3.1389thLine yards73rd3.12
- 15.8%114thHavoc rate54th15.0%
- 4.0384thPoints / opportunity31st3.47
- +0.1159thEarly-down EPA / play81st+0.07
- 38.5%86th3rd-down conversion59th37.2%
- 18.9%109thStuff rate41st18.5%
- 6.0%95thSack rate41st6.8%
- 52%114thRed zone TD rate74th62%
Boston College's defense rates higher in 11 of 15. Widest gap: stuff rate (109th vs 41st).
When Boston College has the ball
- −0.07121stEPA / play127th+0.20
- 38.9%109thSuccess rate95th44.2%
- 1.3152ndExplosiveness128th1.39
- +0.0491stRush EPA / play121st+0.15
- −0.01118thPass EPA / dropback121st+0.23
- 43.9%121stStandard downs SR44th45.8%
- 30.5%80thPassing downs SR137th37.4%
- 3.0896thLine yards113th3.38
- 17.4%127thHavoc rate115th12.1%
- 3.19126thPoints / opportunity73rd4.09
- −0.03112thEarly-down EPA / play95th+0.08
- 37.2%97th3rd-down conversion120th45.8%
- 21.6%126thStuff rate111th13.6%
- 7.3%110thSack rate74th5.3%
- 50%119thRed zone TD rate28th50%
Georgia Tech's defense rates higher in 8 of 15. Widest gap: red-zone TD rate (119th vs 28th).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | BCBC | GTGT | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 31.7 | 27.9 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 62.8 | 61.5 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 46.7% | 54.7% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | −2.5% | +6.2% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 43.1% | 49.6% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 35% | 24% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 30:27 | 27:12 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 29.1 | Own 27.6 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%