- Spread
- FAU −8
- Open −10.5 · −110
- Total
- 53.5
- Open 58.5 · o −110
- Model line
- FAU −12.7+4.7
- Model total 55.7
- Win probability
- 78%
- Projected score
- 21.5 – 34.2
- RICE – FAU
- Projected plays
- 137
- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
- FAU −8
- open −10.5
- Model
- −12.7+4.7
- FAU
- Total
- 53.5
- model 55.7
Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Rice runvs Florida Atlantic run Dvs FAU run DBIGGEST EDGE | 84th−0.02 | 136th+0.15 | 52 | RICE +10.1 |
  Florida Atlantic passvs Rice pass Dvs RICE pass D | 44th+0.05 | 91st+0.04 | 40 | FAU +5.1 |
| Rice passvs Florida Atlantic pass Dvs FAU pass D | 121st−0.14 | 48th−0.04 | 16 | FAU +4.2 |
| Florida Atlantic runvs Rice run Dvs RICE run D | 53rd+0.02 | 117th+0.07 | 29 | FAU +4.0 |
PaceRICE 30.1 s · FAU 25.9 s a snap · avg 131 plays137 plays vs 131 avg | — | — | 137 | O 2.3 |
BIGGEST EDGE · RICE +10.1
Rice's run game vs the Florida Atlantic run defense
Rice gains +0.05 EPA a play on the run (84th); Florida Atlantic allows +0.22 (136th). About 52 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
When Florida Atlantic has the ball
- +0.1242ndEPA / play104th+0.13
- 44.8%37thSuccess rate81st43.1%
- 1.2972ndExplosiveness108th1.35
- +0.0953rdRush EPA / play117th+0.14
- +0.1644thPass EPA / dropback91st+0.15
- 47.9%54thStandard downs SR70th47.2%
- 35.4%11thPassing downs SR110th33.1%
- 3.2073rdLine yards93rd3.23
- 11.9%38thHavoc rate89th13.4%
- 4.8338thPoints / opportunity96th4.34
- 71%35thRed zone TD rate71st62%
Florida Atlantic's offense rates higher in 11 of 11. Widest gap: passing-downs success rate (11th vs 110th).
When Rice has the ball
- −0.08125thEPA / play117th+0.16
- 39.0%106thSuccess rate70th42.2%
- 1.23119thExplosiveness138th1.48
- +0.0584thRush EPA / play136th+0.22
- −0.02121stPass EPA / dropback48th+0.07
- 46.3%81stStandard downs SR68th47.2%
- 26.4%134thPassing downs SR68th30.7%
- 3.1878thLine yards58th3.00
- 15.0%99thHavoc rate71st14.3%
- 3.68107thPoints / opportunity64th4.00
- 50%119thRed zone TD rate106th69%
Florida Atlantic's defense rates higher in 9 of 11. Widest gap: pass EPA (121st vs 48th).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | RICERICE | FAUFAU | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 30.1 | 25.9 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 62.3 | 74.8 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 19.8% | 65.7% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | −31.4% | +16.6% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 17.1% | 69.6% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 35% | 48% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 29:51 | 27:19 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 25.4 | Own 30.2 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%
All tempo →Injury report
AMERICAN AVAILABILITY · DUE ~SAT · IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)
Week 7 game-day report5 OUT FOR SEASON · 5 OUT
- Out for seasonTariq Watson · CB
- Out for seasonQuinton Jackson · RB
- Out for seasonChibby Nwajuaku · DL
- Out for seasonMichael Amey III · S
- Out for seasonColten Cole · TE
- OutBen Grice · WR
- OutBarry Jackson Jr. · WR
- OutCooper King · LB
- OutIan Bothwell · OL
- OutDillan Botts · DL
Week 7 game-day report8 OUT · 4 QUESTIONABLE
- OutRJ Garcia II · WR
- OutBrooks Johnson · TE
- OutJustin Weatherall · DB
- OutOwen Cheatham · OL
- OutRain Banick · OL
- OutLandon Rapkiewicz · OL
- OutPeter Cannon · TE
- OutLebron Edmond · DL
- QuestionableDeshaun Batiste · DB
- QuestionableWallace Foster IV · DB
- QuestionableTyson Rooks · DB
- QuestionableKaden Shields-Dutton · RB
Line movement
- THU 5:37PTotal 51.5 → 52.5
- THU 7:45PSpread −10.5 → −8 · 44% tickets FAUSpread −10.5 → −8 · 44% on FAURLM
- FRI 2:00PTotal 52.5 → 53.5
- FRI 5:40PSpread −8.5 → −7.5
Steam = 4+ books in 5 min. RLM = line moves against the ticket majority.
| Market · consensusMarket | Open | Now | Model |
|---|---|---|---|
Spread FAUSTEAM · 4 BOOKSRLM | −10.5 | −8 | −12.7 |
TotalSTEAM · 5 BOOKS | 58.5 | 53.5 | 55.7 |
Moneyline FAU | −413 | −339 | −352 |
Bet splits
DRAFTKINGS · VIA DK NETWORK
DraftKings bettors, as of 7:15 AM ET. Top bar tickets, bottom bar handle. A 35-pt gap on RICE suggests larger, sharper bets.
Broadcast
ESPNUCrew as reported, not official.
Conditions & crew
KICKOFF FORECAST
- Isolated Rain Showers
- 80°
- mph NNE · G23
- 15
- Precip
- 15%
- Surface
- Turf