- Spread
- TROY −12
- Open −17.5 · −111
- Total
- 50.5
- Open 50.5 · o −110
- Model line
- TROY −12.5
- Model total 54.1
- Win probability
- 78%
- Projected score
- 20.8 – 33.3
- ULM – TROY
- Projected plays
- 135
- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
- TROY −12
- open −17.5
- Model
- −12.5
- TROY
- Total
- 50.5
- model 54.1
Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Troy runvs UL Monroe run Dvs ULM run DBIGGEST EDGE | 45th+0.04 | 114th+0.06 | 37 | TROY +5.5 |
| Troy passvs UL Monroe pass Dvs ULM pass D | 112th−0.10 | 132nd+0.17 | 30 | TROY +3.0 |
  UL Monroe passvs Troy pass Dvs TROY pass D | 117th−0.13 | 106th+0.08 | 35 | TROY +2.5 |
| UL Monroe runvs Troy run Dvs TROY run D | 111th−0.06 | 77th+0.01 | 32 | TROY +2.2 |
PaceULM 28.8 s · TROY 29.0 s a snap · avg 131 plays135 plays vs 131 avg | — | — | 135 | O 1.4 |
BIGGEST EDGE · TROY +5.5
Troy's run game vs the UL Monroe run defense
Troy gains +0.11 EPA a play on the run (45th); UL Monroe allows +0.13 (114th). About 37 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
When Troy has the ball
- +0.0382ndEPA / play132nd+0.22
- 41.9%67thSuccess rate134th48.8%
- 1.2796thExplosiveness45th1.27
- +0.1145thRush EPA / play114th+0.13
- +0.02112thPass EPA / dropback132nd+0.28
- 47.4%59thStandard downs SR134th52.3%
- 29.3%101stPassing downs SR128th35.2%
- 3.2466thLine yards121st3.42
- 16.6%122ndHavoc rate131st11.0%
- 3.50119thPoints / opportunity106th4.54
- 61%81stRed zone TD rate62nd59%
Troy's offense rates higher in 8 of 11. Widest gap: standard-downs success rate (59th vs 134th).
When UL Monroe has the ball
- −0.04112thEPA / play105th+0.13
- 39.9%97thSuccess rate113th45.5%
- 1.22121stExplosiveness55th1.29
- +0.01111thRush EPA / play77th+0.08
- −0.01117thPass EPA / dropback106th+0.19
- 46.0%83rdStandard downs SR125th51.4%
- 29.0%109thPassing downs SR35th29.4%
- 2.92114thLine yards61st3.02
- 17.7%130thHavoc rate105th12.9%
- 3.8796thPoints / opportunity40th3.64
- 60%84thRed zone TD rate48th55%
Troy's defense rates higher in 9 of 11. Widest gap: passing-downs success rate (109th vs 35th).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | ULMULM | TROYTROY | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 28.8 | 29.0 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 64.8 | 70.0 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 36.7% | 45.7% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | −10.1% | −5.4% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 35.9% | 41.7% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 30% | 30% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 29:39 | 32:44 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 26.5 | Own 26.0 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%
All tempo →Injury report
SUN BELT AVAILABILITY · WED 8:08 PM · IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)
- Out for seasonMakin Lenard · RBMakin LenardRB · FRSeason0%0.0
- Out for seasonRoscoe Tucker · OLRoscoe TuckerOL · SRSeason0%−0.1
- Out0%−0.1
- OutKorian Wilson · DBKorian WilsonDB · SR—0%−0.1
- OutRJ Hall · DBRJ HallDB · JR—0%−0.1
- OutZyan Tremont · DLZyan TremontDL · JR—0%−0.4
- Doubtful25%−0.1
- QuestionableNate Green · TENate GreenTE · JR—79%0.0
- ProbableAmeyr Adams · DBAmeyr AdamsDB · JR—79%0.0
- Out for seasonJackson Worley · TEJackson WorleyTE · SRSeason0%−0.2
- Out for seasonJermaine Paramore · DTJermaine ParamoreDT · JRSeason0%−0.1
- Out for seasonJoe Lott · SJoe LottS · JRSeason0%−0.1
- DoubtfulTK Keyes · WRTK KeyesWR · JR—25%−0.8
- QuestionableGoose Crowder · QBGoose CrowderQB · SR—79%−0.5
- QuestionableTai Terrell · CBTai TerrellCB · JR—79%0.0
- Probable79%−0.1
OFS OUT FOR SEASON · O OUT · D DOUBTFUL · Q QUESTIONABLE · GTD GAME-TIME DECISION · P PROBABLE · AV AVAILABLE
IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)
Line movement
- TUE 11:02ASpread −15.5 → −14.5
- THU 2:09PSpread −14.5 → −13.5
- THU 6:30PTotal 51.5 → 50.5
- FRI 7:06PSpread −13.5 → −12.5
| Market · consensusMarket | Open | Now | Model |
|---|---|---|---|
Spread TROY | −17.5 | −12 | −12.5 |
Total | 50.5 | 50.5 | 54.1 |
Moneyline TROY | −769 | −595 | −346 |
Bet splits
DRAFTKINGS · VIA DK NETWORK
DraftKings bettors, as of 3:00 AM ET. Top bar tickets, bottom bar handle. A 66-pt gap on the under suggests larger, sharper bets.
Broadcast
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