- Spread
- UNM −4.5
- Open −4.5 · −110
- Total
- 40.5
- Open 45.5 · o −110
- Model line
- UNM −5.2
- Model total 44.5
- Win probability
- 62%
- Projected score
- 19.7 – 24.9
- NDSU – UNM
- Projected plays
- 128
- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
- UNM −4.5
- open −4.5
- Model
- −5.2
- UNM
- Total
- 40.5
- model 44.5
Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  North Dakota State runvs New Mexico run Dvs UNM run DBIGGEST EDGE | 117th−0.07 | 11th−0.10 | 38 | UNM +9.9 |
  New Mexico passvs North Dakota State pass Dvs NDSU pass D | 70th0.00 | 3rd−0.21 | 24 | NDSU +7.3 |
| North Dakota State passvs New Mexico pass Dvs UNM pass D | 73rd−0.02 | 16th−0.13 | 26 | UNM +5.5 |
| New Mexico runvs North Dakota State run Dvs NDSU run D | 49th+0.03 | 10th−0.11 | 41 | NDSU +4.6 |
PaceNDSU 26.2 s · UNM 33.3 s a snap · avg 131 plays128 plays vs 131 avg | — | — | 128 | U 1.2 |
BIGGEST EDGE · UNM +9.9
The New Mexico run defense vs North Dakota State's run game
North Dakota State gains −0.00 EPA a play on the run (117th); New Mexico allows −0.03 (11th). About 38 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
When New Mexico has the ball
- +0.0854thEPA / play2nd−0.14
- 40.8%81stSuccess rate28th38.8%
- 1.3812thExplosiveness3rd1.17
- +0.1049thRush EPA / play10th−0.04
- +0.1170thPass EPA / dropback3rd−0.09
- 45.7%88thStandard downs SR49th46.2%
- 31.4%56thPassing downs SR4th26.1%
- 3.3447thLine yards70th3.12
- 12.4%44thHavoc rate30th16.2%
- 4.3168thPoints / opportunity6th2.83
- 79%10thRed zone TD rate16th46%
North Dakota State's defense rates higher in 9 of 11. Widest gap: pass EPA (70th vs 3rd).
When North Dakota State has the ball
- −0.01101stEPA / play13th−0.09
- 39.9%96thSuccess rate13th37.5%
- 1.3246thExplosiveness111th1.35
- 0.00117thRush EPA / play11th−0.03
- +0.1073rdPass EPA / dropback16th−0.02
- 44.8%109thStandard downs SR15th43.1%
- 31.0%70thPassing downs SR27th29.1%
- 3.2756thLine yards4th2.42
- 12.8%53rdHavoc rate1st22.7%
- 4.5856thPoints / opportunity1st1.82
- 71%33rdRed zone TD rate1st17%
New Mexico's defense rates higher in 10 of 11. Widest gap: rush EPA (117th vs 11th).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | NDSUNDSU | UNMUNM | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 26.2 | 33.3 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 64.0 | 64.0 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 43.3% | 26.5% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | −10.6% | −23.3% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 41.2% | 17.7% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 29% | 33% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 33:59 | 35:49 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 30.8 | Own 39.5 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%
All tempo →Injury report
MW AVAILABILITY · THU 5:24 PM · IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT) · REPORTED = GRADED BEAT WRITER
- Out for seasonAlijah Wayne · DTAlijah WayneDT · SOSeason0%−0.1
- Out for seasonBraylon Toliver · RBBraylon ToliverRB · FRSeason0%0.0
- Out for seasonCarter Appl · LBCarter ApplLB · FRSeason0%−0.1
- Out for seasonCash Danner · TECash DannerTE · FRSeason0%0.0
- Out for seasonEarl Brown · OLEarl BrownOL · FRSeason0%−0.1
- Out for seasonKye Schlichting · WRKye SchlichtingWR · FRSeason0%0.0
- Out for seasonTucker Thieneman · OLTucker ThienemanOL · FRSeason0%−0.1
- Out0%−0.3REPORTEDOUT· perperDom Izzo· 4d
- Out0%0.0
- OutTruman Griffith · EDGETruman GriffithEDGE · SO—0%−0.1
- QuestionableRay James Jr. · LBRay James Jr.LB · SO———REPORTEDQUESTIONABLE· perperDom Izzo· 4d
- Out for seasonCody Thumlert · EDGECody ThumlertEDGE · SOSeason0%−0.1
- Out for seasonElvin Harris · OLElvin HarrisOL · SRSeason0%−0.1
- Out for seasonJack Layne · QBJack LayneQB · SRSeason0%0.0
- Out for seasonJames Laubstein · QBJames LaubsteinQB · SRSeason0%−0.5
- Out for seasonNick Wheeler · SNick WheelerS · SOSeason0%−0.1
- Out for seasonTroy Omeire · WRTroy OmeireWR · SRSeason0%−0.4
- Out0%0.0
- OutJaxton Eck · LBJaxton EckLB · SR—0%−0.3
- OutShawn Miller · WRShawn MillerWR · SR—0%0.0
- QuestionableCole Millward · OLCole MillwardOL · SR—79%−0.1
- QuestionableJoey Olsen · TEJoey OlsenTE · JR—79%0.0
OFS OUT FOR SEASON · O OUT · D DOUBTFUL · Q QUESTIONABLE · GTD GAME-TIME DECISION · AV AVAILABLE
IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)
REPORTED = VERIFIED BEAT-WRITER POST, CONFIRMED BY A TARGETED X CHECK · OFFICIAL STAYS THE STATUS OF RECORD
Line movement
- SUN 4:00PTotal 44.5 → 42.5STEAM · 5 BOOKS
- SUN 4:17PTotal 44.5 → 42.5
- MON 11:14ATotal 42.5 → 41.5
- FRI 2:41PTotal 41.5 → 40.5
Steam = 4+ books in 5 min. RLM = line moves against the ticket majority.
| Market · consensusMarket | Open | Now | Model |
|---|---|---|---|
Spread UNM | −4.5 | −4.5 | −5.2 |
TotalSTEAM · 5 BOOKS | 45.5 | 40.5 | 44.5 |
Moneyline UNM | −179 | −191 | −166 |
Bet splits
DRAFTKINGS · VIA DK NETWORK
DraftKings bettors, as of 7:30 AM ET. Top bar tickets, bottom bar handle. A 36-pt gap on the under suggests larger, sharper bets.
Broadcast
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