Mountain West · 6-1 · 3-1 CONF · ATS 3-4 · O/U 2-5
North Dakota State Bison
HC Tim Polasek (1st yr) · OC Dan Larson · DC Grant Olson
STARTS IN 11 PERSONNEL (3 OF 7) · BASE D 4-3-4 · SHOTGUN 76%
Mountain West · 6-1 · 3-1 CONF · ATS 3-4 · O/U 2-5
North Dakota State
Bison · HC Tim Polasek (1st yr) · starts in 11 (3 of 7) · base D 4-3-4
North Dakota State
6-1 · 3-1 Mountain West
1 loss now · CFP 17% in sims · CCG 70% · title 35%
Latest from the beat
NORTH DAKOTA STATE · LAST 72 HLAST 72 H
All coverage →No verified updates in the last 72 hours.
Schedule & resultsSchedule
POSTGAME WE = HOW OFTEN THIS BOX SCORE WINS · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PREGAME WPCLOSING LINES · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PROJECTED LINEFUTURE LINES PROJECTED
Wk | Opponent | Result | Line | ATS | Net EPA | Off SR | Def SR | Win prob | Plays | s/play | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |   Jacksonville StateJacksonville State | W33–7 | −7−7 | W | +0.69 | 44% | 29% | 95% | 66 | 31.3 | |
| 1 |   FordhamFordham | W38–0 | −41.5−41.5 | L | +0.96 | 52% | 30% | 100% | 66 | 28.3 | |
| 2 |   at Air Forceat Air Force | W38–32 | −2−2 | W | −0.08 | 38% | 50% | 46% | 58 | 31.1 | |
| 3 |   at Sacramento Stateat Sacramento State | W31–10 | −25.5−25.5 | L | +0.52 | 32% | 37% | 87% | 58 | 33.0 | |
| 4 | BYE | ||||||||||
| 5 |   WyomingWyoming | W28–0 | −17.5−17.5 | W | +0.74 | 52% | 27% | 98% | 70 | 29.3 | |
| 6 |   at UNLVat UNLV | L7–13 | −3−3 | L | −0.21 | 34% | 38% | 43% | 61 | 24.5 | |
| 7 |   NevadaNevada | W31–17 | −14.5−14.5 | L | +0.32 | 41% | 30% | 86% | 69 | 30.5 | |
| 8 |   at New Mexicoat New MexicoNEXT | SAT 10:00 CWSAT 10:00 | +4.5+4.5 | — | — | — | — | 38% | 128 | — | |
| 9 |   UTEPUTEP | OCT 31OCT 31 | −25 proj−25 | 94% | |||||||
| 10 | BYE | ||||||||||
| 11 |   at Hawai'iat Hawai'i | NOV 14NOV 14 | −13.4 proj−13.4 | 79% | |||||||
| 12 |   Northern IllinoisNorthern Illinois | NOV 21NOV 21 | −23.5 proj−23.5 | 92% | |||||||
| 13 |   at San José Stateat San José State | NOV 27NOV 27 | −11.1 proj−11.1 | 75% |
Success rate by down & distance
Formation & personnelFormation
PBP TAGS · 404 OF 405 PLAYS404 OF 405 PLAYS TAGGED
LookLook · usage | Usage | Pass %Pass | EPA/playEPA | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shotgun76% | 76% | 48% | +0.18 | 44% |
| Under center24% | 24% | 13% | −0.23 | 34% |
| No-huddle10% | 10% | 44% | +0.18 | 46% |
| Huddle90% | 90% | 39% | +0.07 | 41% |
In shotgun on 76 % of tagged snaps, passing 48 % of the time (+0.18 EPA a play; −0.23 under center). No-huddle on 10 %. Starts in 11 personnel in 3 of 7 games. Base defense 4-3-4 (7 of 7).
Next game
SAT 10:00 CW · UNIVERSITY STADIUM (NM)SAT 10:00 CW
TOP INJURY · OFFICIAL REPORT
% to play = 1 − P(out) · expected return not reported
Refs
JUDGMENT FLAGS OVER EXPECTED · 2026FLAGS OVER EXPECTED / G · 2026
Crews from | FOE / G | 90% range | Games | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mountain West crews— · 6 games | +0.3 | — | 6 | NOISE |
| Big 12 crews— · 1 game | +1.1 | — | 1 | NOISE |
| MAC crews— · 1 game | −1.1 | — | 1 | NOISE |
| Pac-12 crews— · 1 game | +0.8 | — | 1 | NOISE |
+ = more judgment flags on North Dakota State than expected · 2026 only: crews known for 7 of 8 games · no lean before 8 gamesJudgment flags only, 2026 · crews known for 7 of 8 games · + = more on North Dakota State than expected · no lean before 8 games
Key players
Unit statsEfficiency
OPP-ADJUSTED · RANK OF 138 FBSFBS RANK · OPP-ADJUSTED
MetricStat | North Dakota StateNDSU | RankRK | FBS avgVS FBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPA / play | −0.01 | 99th | +0.06 |
| Success rate | 40.0% | 96th | 42.3% |
| Explosiveness | 1.32 | 46th | 1.30 |
| Rush EPA / play | 0.00 | 114th | +0.07 |
| Pass EPA / play | +0.10 | 73rd | +0.11 |
| Passing downs SR | 31.1% | 66th | 31.1% |
| Line yards | 3.27 | 56th | 3.21 |
| Sack rate allowed | 4.9% | 68th | 5.3% |
| 3rd-down conversion | 41% | 64th | 41% |
| Points / opportunity | 4.58 | 57th | 4.27 |
| Red zone TD rate | 71% | 33rd | 63% |
| Seconds / play | 28.7 | 82nd | 28.0 |