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SAT 3:30 · MW+ · FARGO
UTEP
1-61-6 · 0-3 Mountain West · ATS 1-6
3:30 PM ET
Sat, Oct 31 · MW+
Fargodome · Fargo
WIN PROB
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North Dakota State
6-16-1 · 3-1 Mountain West · ATS 3-4
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Total
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Model line
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Win probability
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Projected score
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Projected plays
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FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
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Model
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Total
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Where the model sees the game

EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED

Where the model sees the game: unit gaps and their model impact
Unit vs defenseOffense gainsOffDefense allowsDefPlaysModel impactImpact
UTEP passvs North Dakota State pass Dvs NDSU pass DBIGGEST EDGE
135th−0.223rd−0.2133NDSU +20.3
North Dakota State passvs UTEP pass Dvs UTEP pass D
73rd−0.02134th+0.2127NDSU +7.6
UTEP runvs North Dakota State run Dvs NDSU run D
89th−0.0312th−0.1036NDSU +6.8
North Dakota State runvs UTEP run Dvs UTEP run D
114th−0.07124th+0.0941NDSU +1.2

BIGGEST EDGE · NDSU +20.3

The North Dakota State pass defense vs UTEP's passing game

UTEP gains −0.11 EPA a play on the pass (135th); North Dakota State allows −0.09 (3rd). About 33 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.

OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.

OffenseNorth Dakota State
NDSU OFF

When North Dakota State has the ball

DefenseUTEP
UTEP DEF
  • −0.0199thEPA / play136th+0.24
  • 40.0%96thSuccess rate137th50.2%
  • 1.3246thExplosiveness73rd1.30
  • 0.00114thRush EPA / play124th+0.16
  • +0.1073rdPass EPA / dropback134th+0.32
  • 44.9%109thStandard downs SR137th53.9%
  • 31.1%66thPassing downs SR124th34.4%
  • 3.2756thLine yards117th3.40
  • 12.8%54thHavoc rate130th11.2%
  • 4.5857thPoints / opportunity126th5.00
  • 71%33rdRed zone TD rate77th63%

North Dakota State's offense rates higher in 11 of 11. Widest gap: havoc rate (54th vs 130th).

OffenseUTEP
UTEP OFF

When UTEP has the ball

DefenseNorth Dakota State
NDSU DEF
  • −0.13134thEPA / play2nd−0.14
  • 36.5%129thSuccess rate28th38.9%
  • 1.3066thExplosiveness3rd1.17
  • +0.0489thRush EPA / play12th−0.03
  • −0.11135thPass EPA / dropback3rd−0.09
  • 43.3%126thStandard downs SR50th46.2%
  • 27.2%129thPassing downs SR4th26.2%
  • 3.1093rdLine yards70th3.12
  • 19.5%136thHavoc rate30th16.2%
  • 2.81135thPoints / opportunity6th2.83
  • 64%70thRed zone TD rate16th46%

North Dakota State's defense rates higher in 11 of 11. Widest gap: EPA / play (134th vs 2nd).

Tempo & tendencies

SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE

Tempo and tendencies, UTEP and North Dakota State, season to date
MetricUTEPUTEPNDSUNDSUFBS avgFBS
Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral30.726.228.9
Plays per gamePlays per game58.664.065.7
Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral42.9%43.3%47.9%
Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS−4.3%−10.6%−2.0%
Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral38.9%41.2%44.6%
4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations32%29%27%
Time of possessionTime of possession30:4433:5930:11
Avg starting field positionAvg starting field positionOwn 29.3Own 30.8Own 29.8

Neutral = WP 20–80%

All tempo →

Injury report

MW AVAILABILITY · DUE ~THU · IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)

UTEP

MW REPORT EXPECTED ~THU (T-2)% TO PLAYIMPACT
No report yetMW REPORT EXPECTED ~THU (T-2)
Week 7 game-day report2 OUT FOR SEASON · 5 OUT · 1 QUESTIONABLE

North Dakota State

MW REPORT EXPECTED ~THU (T-2)% TO PLAYIMPACT
No report yetMW REPORT EXPECTED ~THU (T-2)
Week 8 T-2 report7 OUT FOR SEASON · 3 OUT

Broadcast

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CrewTBA

Conditions & crew

INDOORS

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RefereeCrew TBA
RestUTEP 14d · NDSU 14dBOTH OFF BYE