- Spread
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- Total
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- Model line
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- Win probability
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- Projected score
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- Projected plays
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- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
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- Model
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- Total
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Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  UTEP passvs North Dakota State pass Dvs NDSU pass DBIGGEST EDGE | 135th−0.22 | 3rd−0.21 | 33 | NDSU +20.3 |
  North Dakota State passvs UTEP pass Dvs UTEP pass D | 73rd−0.02 | 134th+0.21 | 27 | NDSU +7.5 |
| UTEP runvs North Dakota State run Dvs NDSU run D | 89th−0.03 | 10th−0.11 | 36 | NDSU +6.9 |
| North Dakota State runvs UTEP run Dvs UTEP run D | 117th−0.07 | 123rd+0.09 | 41 | NDSU +1.0 |
BIGGEST EDGE · NDSU +20.3
The North Dakota State pass defense vs UTEP's passing game
UTEP gains −0.11 EPA a play on the pass (135th); North Dakota State allows −0.09 (3rd). About 33 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
When North Dakota State has the ball
- −0.01101stEPA / play136th+0.24
- 39.9%96thSuccess rate137th50.2%
- 1.3246thExplosiveness73rd1.30
- 0.00117thRush EPA / play123rd+0.16
- +0.1073rdPass EPA / dropback134th+0.32
- 44.8%109thStandard downs SR137th54.0%
- 31.0%70thPassing downs SR125th34.3%
- 3.2756thLine yards118th3.40
- 12.8%53rdHavoc rate128th11.2%
- 4.5856thPoints / opportunity126th5.00
- +0.0295thEarly-down EPA / play130th+0.20
- 41.5%64th3rd-down conversion136th51.6%
- 15.0%62ndStuff rate90th15.1%
- 4.9%68thSack rate133rd2.1%
- 71%33rdRed zone TD rate77th63%
North Dakota State's offense rates higher in 15 of 15. Widest gap: havoc rate (53rd vs 128th).
When UTEP has the ball
- −0.13134thEPA / play2nd−0.14
- 36.5%129thSuccess rate28th38.8%
- 1.3066thExplosiveness3rd1.17
- +0.0489thRush EPA / play10th−0.04
- −0.11135thPass EPA / dropback3rd−0.09
- 43.3%126thStandard downs SR49th46.2%
- 27.2%128thPassing downs SR4th26.1%
- 3.1093rdLine yards70th3.12
- 19.5%136thHavoc rate30th16.2%
- 2.81135thPoints / opportunity6th2.83
- −0.16134thEarly-down EPA / play2nd−0.31
- 25.0%138th3rd-down conversion52nd36.4%
- 19.2%113thStuff rate55th17.5%
- 18.3%138thSack rate71st5.5%
- 64%70thRed zone TD rate16th46%
North Dakota State's defense rates higher in 15 of 15. Widest gap: EPA / play (134th vs 2nd).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | UTEPUTEP | NDSUNDSU | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 30.7 | 26.2 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 58.6 | 64.0 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 42.9% | 43.3% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | −4.3% | −10.6% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 38.9% | 41.2% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 32% | 29% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 30:44 | 33:59 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 29.3 | Own 30.8 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%