- Spread
- MTSU −3.5
- Open −3.5 · +100
- Total
- 50.5
- Open 50.5 · o −110
- Model line
- —
- Win probability
- —
- Projected score
- —
- Projected plays
- —
- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
- MTSU −3.5
- open −3.5
- Model
- —
- Total
- 50.5
Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Kennesaw State passvs Middle Tennessee pass Dvs MTSU pass DBIGGEST EDGE | 107th−0.08 | 97th+0.05 | 36 | MTSU +1.6 |
| Kennesaw State runvs Middle Tennessee run Dvs MTSU run D | 121st−0.08 | 130th+0.10 | 32 | KENN +1.1 |
  Middle Tennessee passvs Kennesaw State pass Dvs KENN pass D | 103rd−0.08 | 112th+0.09 | 38 | MTSU +1.0 |
| Middle Tennessee runvs Kennesaw State run Dvs KENN run D | 81st−0.02 | 74th+0.01 | 30 | KENN +0.3 |
BIGGEST EDGE · MTSU +1.6
The Middle Tennessee pass defense vs Kennesaw State's passing game
Kennesaw State gains +0.04 EPA a play on the pass (107th); Middle Tennessee allows +0.16 (97th). About 36 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
When Middle Tennessee has the ball
- +0.0288thEPA / play98th+0.12
- 40.5%87thSuccess rate85th43.5%
- 1.3062ndExplosiveness46th1.28
- +0.0581stRush EPA / play74th+0.08
- +0.04103rdPass EPA / dropback112th+0.21
- 45.8%85thStandard downs SR81st48.2%
- 30.7%75thPassing downs SR104th32.5%
- 3.3646thLine yards120th3.42
- 12.9%54thHavoc rate133rd10.8%
- 4.1875thPoints / opportunity59th3.89
- +0.1542ndEarly-down EPA / play111th+0.11
- 27.6%137th3rd-down conversion89th40.5%
- 15.8%74thStuff rate78th15.9%
- 3.2%31stSack rate137th1.5%
- 63%76thRed zone TD rate77th63%
Middle Tennessee's offense rates higher in 9 of 15. Widest gap: sack rate (31st vs 137th).
When Kennesaw State has the ball
- −0.03107thEPA / play114th+0.15
- 40.8%82ndSuccess rate128th47.3%
- 1.19134thExplosiveness14th1.22
- −0.01121stRush EPA / play130th+0.17
- +0.04107thPass EPA / dropback97th+0.16
- 46.9%72ndStandard downs SR126th51.5%
- 29.3%102ndPassing downs SR101st32.3%
- 3.0995thLine yards136th3.69
- 12.3%42ndHavoc rate134th9.9%
- 4.3566thPoints / opportunity113th4.69
- +0.0775thEarly-down EPA / play102nd+0.08
- 37.5%94th3rd-down conversion81st40.0%
- 22.9%134thStuff rate121st12.5%
- 3.0%23rdSack rate114th3.8%
- 65%65thRed zone TD rate104th68%
Kennesaw State's offense rates higher in 10 of 15. Widest gap: explosiveness (134th vs 14th).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | KENNKENN | MTSUMTSU | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 25.9 | 31.2 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 65.9 | 57.3 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 50.2% | 54.6% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | +0.3% | +4.4% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 47.5% | 51.9% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 24% | 20% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 29:26 | 27:51 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 25.4 | Own 27.7 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%