C-USA · 4-3 · 2-1 CONF · ATS 5-2 · O/U 3-4
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
HC Derek Mason (3rd yr) · OC Anthony Scelfo · DC Brian Stewart
STARTS IN 11 PERSONNEL (6 OF 7) · BASE D 4-2-5 · SHOTGUN 92%
C-USA · 4-3 · 2-1 CONF · ATS 5-2 · O/U 3-4
Middle Tennessee
Blue Raiders · HC Derek Mason (3rd yr) · starts in 11 (6 of 7) · base D 4-2-5
Middle Tennessee
4-3 · 2-1 C-USA
3 losses now · CFP 0% in sims · CCG 8% · title 2%
Latest from the beat
MIDDLE TENNESSEE · LAST 72 HLAST 72 H
All coverage →No verified updates in the last 72 hours.
Schedule & resultsSchedule
POSTGAME WE = HOW OFTEN THIS BOX SCORE WINS · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PREGAME WPCLOSING LINES · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PROJECTED LINEFUTURE LINES PROJECTED
Wk | Opponent | Result | Line | ATS | Net EPA | Off SR | Def SR | Win prob | Plays | s/play | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |   Murray StateMurray State | W38–14 | −22.5−22.5 | W | +0.52 | 54% | 40% | 90% | 48 | 32.0 | |
| 2 |   at Marshallat Marshall | L26–28 | +12.5+12.5 | W | −0.03 | 43% | 45% | 48% | 69 | 28.0 | |
| 3 |   NevadaNevada | W27–20 | +4+4 | W | +0.21 | 38% | 36% | 56% | 65 | 30.2 | |
| 4 |   at Jacksonville Stateat Jacksonville State | L13–23 | +7+7 | L | −0.24 | 41% | 58% | 15% | 56 | 28.7 | |
| 5 |   at Kansasat Kansas | L0–55 | +21+21 | L | −1.00 | 17% | 60% | 0% | 41 | 26.6 | |
| 6 | BYE | ||||||||||
| 7 |   DelawareDelaware | W33–30 | +1.5+1.5 | W | +0.01 | 43% | 42% | 50% | 58 | 29.7 | |
| 8 |   at Florida Internationalat Florida International | W26–23 | +10.5+10.5 | W | +0.15 | 47% | 44% | 63% | 64 | 32.9 | |
| 9 |   Kennesaw StateKennesaw StateNEXT | WED 7:00 CBSSNWED 7:00 | −3.5−3.5 | — | — | — | — | 58% | — | — | |
| 10 |   Western KentuckyWestern Kentucky | NOV 7NOV 7 | −1 proj−1 | 52% | |||||||
| 11 |   at Libertyat Liberty | NOV 14NOV 14 | +16.6 proj+16.6 | 16% | |||||||
| 12 |   at Sam Houstonat Sam Houston | NOV 21NOV 21 | +1.7 proj+1.7 | 46% | |||||||
| 13 |   New Mexico StateNew Mexico State | NOV 28NOV 28 | −2 proj−2 | 55% |
Success rate by down & distance
Formation & personnelFormation
PBP TAGS · 387 OF 389 PLAYS387 OF 389 PLAYS TAGGED
LookLook · usage | Usage | Pass %Pass | EPA/playEPA | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shotgun92% | 92% | 58% | +0.10 | 43% |
| Under center8% | 8% | 30% | −0.36 | 23% |
| No-huddle94% | 94% | 56% | +0.06 | 42% |
| Huddle6% | 6% | 52% | +0.03 | 35% |
In shotgun on 92 % of tagged snaps, passing 58 % of the time (+0.10 EPA a play; −0.36 under center). No-huddle on 94 %. Starts in 11 personnel in 6 of 7 games. Base defense 4-2-5 (6 of 7).
Next game
WED 7:00 CBSSN · JOHNNY "RED" FLOYD STADIUMWED 7:00 CBSSN
Refs
JUDGMENT FLAGS OVER EXPECTED · 2026FLAGS OVER EXPECTED / G · 2026
Crews from | FOE / G | 90% range | Games | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C-USA crews−0.4 to +0.5 · 43 games | +0.1 | −0.4 to +0.5 | 43 | NOISE |
| SEC crews— · 3 games | +0.2 | — | 3 | NOISE |
| ACC crews— · 2 games | +1.3 | — | 2 | NOISE |
| American crews— · 2 games | −1.4 | — | 2 | NOISE |
| Mountain West crews— · 2 games | 0.0 | — | 2 | NOISE |
| Big 12 crews— · 1 game | −4.9 | — | 1 | NOISE |
| Big Ten crews— · 1 game | −3.2 | — | 1 | NOISE |
| Sun Belt crews— · 1 game | +3.4 | — | 1 | NOISE |
+ = more judgment flags on Middle Tennessee than expected · 2026 only: crews known for 7 of 8 games · no lean before 8 gamesJudgment flags only, 2026 · crews known for 7 of 8 games · + = more on Middle Tennessee than expected · no lean before 8 games
Key players
Unit statsEfficiency
OPP-ADJUSTED · RANK OF 138 FBSFBS RANK · OPP-ADJUSTED
MetricStat | Middle TennesseeMTSU | RankRK | FBS avgVS FBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPA / play | +0.02 | 88th | +0.06 |
| Success rate | 40.6% | 86th | 42.3% |
| Explosiveness | 1.30 | 62nd | 1.30 |
| Rush EPA / play | +0.05 | 83rd | +0.07 |
| Pass EPA / play | +0.04 | 105th | +0.11 |
| Passing downs SR | 30.7% | 76th | 31.1% |
| Line yards | 3.36 | 47th | 3.21 |
| Sack rate allowed | 3.2% | 31st | 5.3% |
| 3rd-down conversion | 28% | 137th | 41% |
| Points / opportunity | 4.18 | 75th | 4.27 |
| Red zone TD rate | 63% | 76th | 63% |
| Seconds / play | 30.0 | 107th | 28.0 |