- Spread
- KENT −10.5
- Open −10 · −110
- Total
- 46.5
- Open 46 · o −110
- Model line
- KENT −7+3.5
- Model total 48.6
- Win probability
- 66%
- Projected score
- 27.8 – 20.8
- KENT – SAC
- Projected plays
- 126
- FBS avg 132 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
- KENT −10.5
- open −10
- Model
- −7+3.5
- KENT
- Total
- 46.5
- model 48.6
Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Sacramento State passvs Kent State pass Dvs KENT pass DBIGGEST EDGE | 138th−0.25 | 75th+0.02 | 39 | KENT +13.0 |
| Sacramento State runvs Kent State run Dvs KENT run D | 130th−0.12 | 89th+0.03 | 24 | KENT +3.2 |
PaceKENT 30.1 s · SAC 32.0 s a snap · avg 132 plays126 plays vs 132 avg | — | — | 126 | U 2.2 |
  Kent State passvs Sacramento State pass Dvs SAC pass D | 109th−0.10 | 127th+0.13 | 32 | KENT +1.6 |
| Kent State runvs Sacramento State run Dvs SAC run D | 129th−0.12 | 120th+0.08 | 31 | SAC +1.5 |
BIGGEST EDGE · KENT +13.0
The Kent State pass defense vs Sacramento State's passing game
Sacramento State gains −0.14 EPA a play on the pass (138th); Kent State allows +0.12 (75th). About 39 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
When Sacramento State has the ball
- −0.20138thEPA / play86th+0.09
- 36.6%129thSuccess rate116th46.1%
- 1.16138thExplosiveness27th1.24
- −0.05130thRush EPA / play89th+0.10
- −0.14138thPass EPA / dropback75th+0.12
- 43.9%120thStandard downs SR125th51.3%
- 25.8%134thPassing downs SR73rd30.9%
- 2.53135thLine yards127th3.50
- 18.6%135thHavoc rate80th14.0%
- 2.74136thPoints / opportunity102nd4.41
- −0.23138thEarly-down EPA / play90th+0.07
- 31.0%129th3rd-down conversion69th38.7%
- 25.0%136thStuff rate113th13.3%
- 5.3%76thSack rate25th7.4%
- 36%136thRed zone TD rate111th70%
Kent State's defense rates higher in 14 of 15. Widest gap: explosiveness (138th vs 27th).
When Kent State has the ball
- −0.10131stEPA / play130th+0.21
- 34.9%135thSuccess rate103rd44.9%
- 1.3249thExplosiveness127th1.38
- −0.05129thRush EPA / play120th+0.15
- +0.01109thPass EPA / dropback127th+0.24
- 40.5%136thStandard downs SR110th50.3%
- 28.2%116thPassing downs SR43rd29.5%
- 2.66132ndLine yards125th3.49
- 14.1%83rdHavoc rate137th8.1%
- 2.62137thPoints / opportunity123rd4.82
- −0.08127thEarly-down EPA / play127th+0.17
- 39.0%82nd3rd-down conversion119th45.1%
- 20.0%121stStuff rate131st11.0%
- 4.2%46thSack rate121st3.5%
- 57%103rdRed zone TD rate122nd75%
Sacramento State's defense rates higher in 8 of 15. Widest gap: explosiveness (49th vs 127th).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | KENTKENT | SACSAC | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 30.1 | 32.0 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 62.1 | 63.8 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 54.7% | 44.3% | 48.0% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | +6.1% | −4.8% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 52.0% | 41.9% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 31% | 26% | 26% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 30:45 | 28:37 | 30:08 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 29.6 | Own 28.9 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%