New Mexico
5-15-1 · 2-0 Mountain West · ATS 5-1
4:00 PM ET
Sat, Oct 31 · MW+
CEFCU Stadium · San Jose
WIN PROB
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San José State
4-34-3 · 2-1 Mountain West · ATS 4-3
- Spread
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- Total
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- Model line
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- Win probability
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- Projected score
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- Projected plays
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- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
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- Model
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- Total
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Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  San José State runvs New Mexico run Dvs UNM run DBIGGEST EDGE | 136th−0.15 | 11th−0.10 | 33 | UNM +12.0 |
| San José State passvs New Mexico pass Dvs UNM pass D | 110th−0.09 | 16th−0.13 | 35 | UNM +11.2 |
  New Mexico runvs San José State run Dvs SJSU run D | 49th+0.03 | 97th+0.05 | 43 | UNM +4.8 |
| New Mexico passvs San José State pass Dvs SJSU pass D | 70th0.00 | 52nd−0.03 | 25 | SJSU +1.3 |
BIGGEST EDGE · UNM +12.0
The New Mexico run defense vs San José State's run game
San José State gains −0.08 EPA a play on the run (136th); New Mexico allows −0.03 (11th). About 33 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
OffenseSan José State
SJSU OFFWhen San José State has the ball
DefenseNew Mexico
UNM DEF- −0.07122ndEPA / play13th−0.09
- 36.2%130thSuccess rate13th37.5%
- 1.2798thExplosiveness111th1.35
- −0.08136thRush EPA / play11th−0.03
- +0.03110thPass EPA / dropback16th−0.02
- 43.9%122ndStandard downs SR15th43.1%
- 26.5%133rdPassing downs SR27th29.1%
- 3.1683rdLine yards4th2.42
- 12.9%55thHavoc rate1st22.7%
- 3.24125thPoints / opportunity1st1.82
- +0.0388thEarly-down EPA / play1st−0.35
- 33.0%116th3rd-down conversion23rd32.2%
- 17.1%91stStuff rate12th23.6%
- 5.3%81stSack rate32nd7.1%
- 50%119thRed zone TD rate1st17%
New Mexico's defense rates higher in 14 of 15. Widest gap: rush EPA (136th vs 11th).
OffenseNew Mexico
UNM OFFWhen New Mexico has the ball
DefenseSan José State
SJSU DEF- +0.0854thEPA / play87th+0.10
- 40.8%81stSuccess rate98th44.4%
- 1.3812thExplosiveness20th1.23
- +0.1049thRush EPA / play97th+0.12
- +0.1170thPass EPA / dropback52nd+0.08
- 45.7%88thStandard downs SR112th50.1%
- 31.4%56thPassing downs SR73rd31.0%
- 3.3447thLine yards124th3.46
- 12.4%44thHavoc rate47th15.3%
- 4.3168thPoints / opportunity12th2.98
- +0.0293rdEarly-down EPA / play65th+0.03
- 43.3%50th3rd-down conversion40th34.7%
- 10.5%12thStuff rate123rd12.3%
- 10.3%133rdSack rate5th9.4%
- 79%10thRed zone TD rate62nd59%
New Mexico's offense rates higher in 10 of 15. Widest gap: sack rate (133rd vs 5th).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | UNMUNM | SJSUSJSU | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 33.3 | 24.5 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 64.0 | 66.1 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 26.5% | 54.8% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | −23.3% | +3.3% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 17.7% | 52.9% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 33% | 18% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 35:49 | 26:15 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 39.5 | Own 27.5 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%