Skip to content
Slate
SAT 12:00 · CW · DURHAM
Boston College
3-33-3 · 1-2 ACC · ATS 4-2
12:00 PM ET
Sat, Oct 31 · CW
Wallace Wade Stadium · Durham
WIN PROB
—
 
Duke
5-25-2 · 2-2 ACC · ATS 5-2
Spread
—
 
Total
—
 
Model line
—
 
Win probability
—
Projected score
—
 
Projected plays
—
FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
Spread
—
 
Model
—
 
Total
—
 

Where the model sees the game

EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED

Where the model sees the game: unit gaps and their model impact
Unit vs defenseOffense gainsOffDefense allowsDefPlaysModel impactImpact
Boston College passvs Duke pass Dvs DUKE pass DBIGGEST EDGE
118th−0.1384th+0.0232DUKE +4.9
Boston College runvs Duke run Dvs DUKE run D
91st−0.0346th−0.0436DUKE +3.6
Duke passvs Boston College pass Dvs BC pass D
53rd+0.0233rd−0.0732BC +2.2
Duke runvs Boston College run Dvs BC run D
49th+0.0362nd−0.0136DUKE +0.8

BIGGEST EDGE · DUKE +4.9

The Duke pass defense vs Boston College's passing game

Boston College gains −0.01 EPA a play on the pass (118th); Duke allows +0.14 (84th). About 32 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.

OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.

OffenseDuke
DUKE OFF

When Duke has the ball

DefenseBoston College
BC DEF
  • +0.0853rdEPA / play41st+0.01
  • 40.2%90thSuccess rate60th41.6%
  • 1.3439thExplosiveness24th1.24
  • +0.1049thRush EPA / play62nd+0.06
  • +0.1353rdPass EPA / dropback33rd+0.05
  • 44.6%112thStandard downs SR53rd46.4%
  • 32.3%44thPassing downs SR100th32.3%
  • 3.3843rdLine yards73rd3.12
  • 9.6%14thHavoc rate53rd15.0%
  • 4.7145thPoints / opportunity31st3.47
  • 60%84thRed zone TD rate75th62%

Boston College's defense rates higher in 7 of 11. Widest gap: standard-downs success rate (112th vs 53rd).

OffenseBoston College
BC OFF

When Boston College has the ball

DefenseDuke
DUKE DEF
  • −0.07119thEPA / play51st+0.03
  • 38.9%111thSuccess rate72nd42.3%
  • 1.3152ndExplosiveness38th1.27
  • +0.0491stRush EPA / play46th+0.03
  • −0.01118thPass EPA / dropback84th+0.14
  • 43.9%121stStandard downs SR95th49.2%
  • 30.6%80thPassing downs SR8th27.8%
  • 3.0896thLine yards15th2.70
  • 17.4%127thHavoc rate80th14.1%
  • 3.19126thPoints / opportunity58th3.87
  • 50%119thRed zone TD rate87th64%

Duke's defense rates higher in 11 of 11. Widest gap: line yards (96th vs 15th).

Tempo & tendencies

SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE

Tempo and tendencies, Boston College and Duke, season to date
MetricBCBCDUKEDUKEFBS avgFBS
Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral31.731.228.9
Plays per gamePlays per game62.868.865.7
Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral46.7%48.7%47.9%
Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS−2.5%−4.4%−2.0%
Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral43.1%45.7%44.6%
4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations35%27%27%
Time of possessionTime of possession30:2731:3430:11
Avg starting field positionAvg starting field positionOwn 29.1Own 30.4Own 29.8

Neutral = WP 20–80%

All tempo →

Injury report

ACC AVAILABILITY · DUE ~WED · IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)

Boston College

ACC REPORT EXPECTED ~WED (T-3)% TO PLAYIMPACT
No report yetACC REPORT EXPECTED ~WED (T-3)
Week 8 T-1 report3 OUT FOR SEASON · 6 OUT

Duke

ACC REPORT EXPECTED ~WED (T-3)% TO PLAYIMPACT
No report yetACC REPORT EXPECTED ~WED (T-3)
Week 8 game-day report12 OUT

Broadcast

CW
CrewTBA
Also onESPN Unlimited

Conditions & crew

KICKOFF FORECAST

Temp
—
mph
—
Precip
—
Surface
Grass
RefereeCrew TBA
RestBC 14d · DUKE 8dBC OFF BYE