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SAT 12:00 · CW · DURHAM
Boston College
3-33-3 · 1-2 ACC · ATS 4-2
12:00 PM ET
Sat, Oct 31 · CW
Wallace Wade Stadium · Durham
WIN PROB
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Duke
5-25-2 · 2-2 ACC · ATS 5-2
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Total
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Model line
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Win probability
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Projected score
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Projected plays
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FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
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Model
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Total
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Where the model sees the game

EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED

Where the model sees the game: unit gaps and their model impact
Unit vs defenseOffense gainsOffDefense allowsDefPlaysModel impactImpact
Boston College passvs Duke pass Dvs DUKE pass DBIGGEST EDGE
118th−0.1372nd+0.0132DUKE +5.6
Boston College runvs Duke run Dvs DUKE run D
91st−0.0336th−0.0636DUKE +4.6
Duke passvs Boston College pass Dvs BC pass D
54th+0.0133rd−0.0733BC +2.6
Duke runvs Boston College run Dvs BC run D
58th+0.0162nd−0.0135DUKE +0.0

BIGGEST EDGE · DUKE +5.6

The Duke pass defense vs Boston College's passing game

Boston College gains −0.01 EPA a play on the pass (118th); Duke allows +0.12 (72nd). About 32 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.

OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.

OffenseDuke
DUKE OFF

When Duke has the ball

DefenseBoston College
BC DEF
  • +0.0760thEPA / play42nd+0.01
  • 40.0%93rdSuccess rate61st41.6%
  • 1.3532ndExplosiveness24th1.24
  • +0.0858thRush EPA / play62nd+0.06
  • +0.1354thPass EPA / dropback33rd+0.05
  • 44.6%113thStandard downs SR53rd46.4%
  • 31.8%49thPassing downs SR100th32.3%
  • 3.2955thLine yards73rd3.12
  • 10.4%18thHavoc rate54th15.0%
  • 4.6352ndPoints / opportunity31st3.47
  • 58%95thRed zone TD rate74th62%

Boston College's defense rates higher in 7 of 11. Widest gap: standard-downs success rate (113th vs 53rd).

OffenseBoston College
BC OFF

When Boston College has the ball

DefenseDuke
DUKE DEF
  • −0.07121stEPA / play39th0.00
  • 38.9%109thSuccess rate47th40.8%
  • 1.3152ndExplosiveness51st1.28
  • +0.0491stRush EPA / play36th+0.01
  • −0.01118thPass EPA / dropback72nd+0.12
  • 43.9%121stStandard downs SR72nd47.6%
  • 30.5%80thPassing downs SR6th27.5%
  • 3.0896thLine yards21st2.74
  • 17.4%127thHavoc rate60th14.9%
  • 3.19126thPoints / opportunity52nd3.75
  • 50%119thRed zone TD rate51st56%

Duke's defense rates higher in 11 of 11. Widest gap: EPA / play (121st vs 39th).

Tempo & tendencies

SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE

Tempo and tendencies, Boston College and Duke, season to date
MetricBCBCDUKEDUKEFBS avgFBS
Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral31.730.128.9
Plays per gamePlays per game62.866.065.7
Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral46.7%52.0%47.9%
Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS−2.5%−1.6%−1.9%
Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral43.1%49.5%44.6%
4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations35%27%27%
Time of possessionTime of possession30:2731:3430:11
Avg starting field positionAvg starting field positionOwn 29.1Own 30.4Own 29.8

Neutral = WP 20–80%

All tempo →

Injury report

ACC AVAILABILITY · DUE ~WED · IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)

Boston College

ACC REPORT EXPECTED ~WED (T-3)% TO PLAYIMPACT
No report yetACC REPORT EXPECTED ~WED (T-3)
Week 8 T-1 report3 OUT FOR SEASON · 6 OUT

Duke

ACC REPORT EXPECTED ~WED (T-3)% TO PLAYIMPACT
No report yetACC REPORT EXPECTED ~WED (T-3)
Week 8 game-day report12 OUT

Broadcast

CW
CrewTBA
Also onESPN Unlimited

Conditions & crew

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RefereeCrew TBA
RestBC 14d · DUKE 8dBC OFF BYE