Boston College
3-33-3 · 1-2 ACC · ATS 4-2
12:00 PM ET
Sat, Oct 31 · CW
Wallace Wade Stadium · Durham
WIN PROB
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Duke
5-25-2 · 2-2 ACC · ATS 5-2
- Spread
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- Total
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- Model line
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- Win probability
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- Projected score
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- Projected plays
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- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
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- Model
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- Total
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Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Boston College passvs Duke pass Dvs DUKE pass DBIGGEST EDGE | 118th−0.13 | 72nd+0.01 | 32 | DUKE +5.6 |
| Boston College runvs Duke run Dvs DUKE run D | 91st−0.03 | 36th−0.06 | 36 | DUKE +4.6 |
  Duke passvs Boston College pass Dvs BC pass D | 54th+0.01 | 33rd−0.07 | 33 | BC +2.6 |
| Duke runvs Boston College run Dvs BC run D | 58th+0.01 | 62nd−0.01 | 35 | DUKE +0.0 |
BIGGEST EDGE · DUKE +5.6
The Duke pass defense vs Boston College's passing game
Boston College gains −0.01 EPA a play on the pass (118th); Duke allows +0.12 (72nd). About 32 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
OffenseDuke
DUKE OFFWhen Duke has the ball
DefenseBoston College
BC DEF- +0.0760thEPA / play42nd+0.01
- 40.0%93rdSuccess rate61st41.6%
- 1.3532ndExplosiveness24th1.24
- +0.0858thRush EPA / play62nd+0.06
- +0.1354thPass EPA / dropback33rd+0.05
- 44.6%113thStandard downs SR53rd46.4%
- 31.8%49thPassing downs SR100th32.3%
- 3.2955thLine yards73rd3.12
- 10.4%18thHavoc rate54th15.0%
- 4.6352ndPoints / opportunity31st3.47
- +0.1640thEarly-down EPA / play81st+0.07
- 44.2%41st3rd-down conversion59th37.2%
- 14.9%59thStuff rate41st18.5%
- 1.0%3rdSack rate41st6.8%
- 58%95thRed zone TD rate74th62%
Boston College's defense rates higher in 8 of 15. Widest gap: standard-downs success rate (113th vs 53rd).
OffenseBoston College
BC OFFWhen Boston College has the ball
DefenseDuke
DUKE DEF- −0.07121stEPA / play39th0.00
- 38.9%109thSuccess rate47th40.8%
- 1.3152ndExplosiveness51st1.28
- +0.0491stRush EPA / play36th+0.01
- −0.01118thPass EPA / dropback72nd+0.12
- 43.9%121stStandard downs SR72nd47.6%
- 30.5%80thPassing downs SR6th27.5%
- 3.0896thLine yards21st2.74
- 17.4%127thHavoc rate60th14.9%
- 3.19126thPoints / opportunity52nd3.75
- −0.03112thEarly-down EPA / play47th0.00
- 37.2%97th3rd-down conversion18th30.9%
- 21.6%126thStuff rate38th18.9%
- 7.3%110thSack rate51st6.2%
- 50%119thRed zone TD rate51st56%
Duke's defense rates higher in 15 of 15. Widest gap: stuff rate (126th vs 38th).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | BCBC | DUKEDUKE | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 31.7 | 30.1 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 62.8 | 66.0 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 46.7% | 52.0% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | −2.5% | −1.6% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 43.1% | 49.5% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 35% | 27% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 30:27 | 31:34 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 29.1 | Own 30.4 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%