- Spread
- BYU −16.5
- Open −17.5
- Total
- 51.5
- Open 51.5
- Model line
- —
- Win probability
- —
- Projected score
- —
- Projected plays
- —
- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
- BYU −16.5
- open −17.5
- Model
- —
- Total
- 51.5
Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Arizona State passvs BYU pass Dvs BYU pass DBIGGEST EDGE | 97th−0.06 | 5th−0.19 | 35 | BYU +12.8 |
  BYU runvs Arizona State run Dvs ASU run D | 17th+0.10 | 111th+0.06 | 36 | BYU +8.3 |
| BYU passvs Arizona State pass Dvs ASU pass D | 26th+0.12 | 69th0.00 | 33 | BYU +5.4 |
| Arizona State runvs BYU run Dvs BYU run D | 63rd+0.01 | 40th−0.05 | 33 | BYU +2.0 |
BIGGEST EDGE · BYU +12.8
The BYU pass defense vs Arizona State's passing game
Arizona State gains +0.06 EPA a play on the pass (97th); BYU allows −0.08 (5th). About 35 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
When BYU has the ball
- +0.2312thEPA / play78th+0.08
- 49.1%8thSuccess rate78th42.8%
- 1.26102ndExplosiveness122nd1.37
- +0.1717thRush EPA / play111th+0.13
- +0.2326thPass EPA / dropback69th+0.11
- 54.0%4thStandard downs SR80th48.2%
- 32.0%46thPassing downs SR75th31.0%
- 3.756thLine yards102nd3.31
- 6.6%1stHavoc rate36th15.7%
- 5.487thPoints / opportunity54th3.76
- 83%8thRed zone TD rate43rd53%
BYU's offense rates higher in 11 of 11. Widest gap: line yards (6th vs 102nd).
When Arizona State has the ball
- +0.0194thEPA / play11th−0.09
- 42.6%57thSuccess rate9th36.2%
- 1.3251stExplosiveness32nd1.25
- +0.0863rdRush EPA / play40th+0.02
- +0.0697thPass EPA / dropback5th−0.08
- 46.4%79thStandard downs SR6th41.5%
- 32.8%33rdPassing downs SR47th29.8%
- 3.2465thLine yards17th2.72
- 15.7%111thHavoc rate15th18.0%
- 4.0087thPoints / opportunity21st3.19
- 54%108thRed zone TD rate86th64%
BYU's defense rates higher in 10 of 11. Widest gap: havoc rate (111th vs 15th).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | ASUASU | BYUBYU | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 27.0 | 29.7 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 67.0 | 60.0 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 55.7% | 53.6% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | +5.2% | +4.5% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 54.4% | 53.5% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 32% | 18% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 30:43 | 31:21 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 27.6 | Own 30.0 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%
All tempo →Injury report
BIG 12 AVAILABILITY · DUE ~WED · IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)
Week 8 T-1 report3 OUT · 2 DOUBTFUL · 1 PROBABLE
- OutLyrik Rawls · DB
- OutJalen Williams · DB
- OutHarry Hassmann · WR
- DoubtfulWade Helton · OL
- DoubtfulLuke Baklenko · OL
- ProbableFiliva'a Lokotui · OL
Week 8 T-1 report1 OUT · 1 QUESTIONABLE
- OutLJ Martin · RB
- QuestionableKyle Sfarcioc · OL
Line movement
| Market · consensusMarket | Open | Now | Model |
|---|---|---|---|
Spread BYU | −17.5 | −16.5 | — |
Total | 51.5 | 51.5 | — |
Moneyline BYU | −800 | −800 | — |
Broadcast
FOXConditions & crew
KICKOFF FORECAST
- Temp
- —
- mph
- —
- Precip
- —
- Surface
- Grass