Arizona State
3-33-3 · 1-2 Big 12 · ATS 2-4
3:30 PM ET
Sat, Oct 31 · FOX
LaVell Edwards Stadium · Provo
WIN PROB
—
BYU
#2 · 6-0#2 · 6-0 · 3-0 Big 12 · ATS 6-0
- Spread
- BYU −16.5
- Open −17.5
- Total
- 51.5
- Open 51.5
- Model line
- —
- Win probability
- —
- Projected score
- —
- Projected plays
- —
- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
- BYU −16.5
- open −17.5
- Model
- —
- Total
- 51.5
Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Arizona State passvs BYU pass Dvs BYU pass DBIGGEST EDGE | 97th−0.06 | 5th−0.19 | 35 | BYU +12.8 |
  BYU runvs Arizona State run Dvs ASU run D | 17th+0.10 | 111th+0.06 | 36 | BYU +8.3 |
| BYU passvs Arizona State pass Dvs ASU pass D | 26th+0.12 | 69th0.00 | 33 | BYU +5.4 |
| Arizona State runvs BYU run Dvs BYU run D | 63rd+0.01 | 40th−0.05 | 33 | BYU +2.0 |
BIGGEST EDGE · BYU +12.8
The BYU pass defense vs Arizona State's passing game
Arizona State gains +0.06 EPA a play on the pass (97th); BYU allows −0.08 (5th). About 35 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
OffenseBYU
BYU OFFWhen BYU has the ball
DefenseArizona State
ASU DEF- +0.2312thEPA / play78th+0.08
- 49.1%8thSuccess rate78th42.8%
- 1.26102ndExplosiveness122nd1.37
- +0.1717thRush EPA / play111th+0.13
- +0.2326thPass EPA / dropback69th+0.11
- 54.0%4thStandard downs SR80th48.2%
- 32.0%46thPassing downs SR75th31.0%
- 3.756thLine yards102nd3.31
- 6.6%1stHavoc rate36th15.7%
- 5.487thPoints / opportunity54th3.76
- +0.2711thEarly-down EPA / play70th+0.03
- 56.5%4th3rd-down conversion51st36.1%
- 10.2%7thStuff rate108th13.9%
- 2.0%10thSack rate80th5.1%
- 83%8thRed zone TD rate43rd53%
BYU's offense rates higher in 15 of 15. Widest gap: stuff rate (7th vs 108th).
OffenseArizona State
ASU OFFWhen Arizona State has the ball
DefenseBYU
BYU DEF- +0.0194thEPA / play11th−0.09
- 42.6%57thSuccess rate9th36.2%
- 1.3251stExplosiveness32nd1.25
- +0.0863rdRush EPA / play40th+0.02
- +0.0697thPass EPA / dropback5th−0.08
- 46.4%79thStandard downs SR6th41.5%
- 32.8%33rdPassing downs SR47th29.8%
- 3.2465thLine yards17th2.72
- 15.7%111thHavoc rate15th18.0%
- 4.0087thPoints / opportunity21st3.19
- +0.1158thEarly-down EPA / play14th−0.13
- 31.2%130th3rd-down conversion28th32.9%
- 16.0%76thStuff rate15th23.1%
- 4.9%68thSack rate70th5.5%
- 54%108thRed zone TD rate86th64%
BYU's defense rates higher in 13 of 15. Widest gap: third-down conversion (130th vs 28th).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | ASUASU | BYUBYU | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 27.0 | 29.7 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 67.0 | 60.0 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 55.7% | 53.6% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | +5.2% | +4.5% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 54.4% | 53.5% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 32% | 18% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 30:43 | 31:21 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 27.6 | Own 30.0 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%