Wisconsin
4-24-2 · 2-1 Big Ten · ATS 3-3
12:00 PM ET
Sat, Oct 31 · FOX
Kinnick Stadium · Iowa City
WIN PROB
—
Iowa
#15 · 5-1#15 · 5-1 · 2-1 Big Ten · ATS 4-2
- Spread
- IOWA −4.5
- Open −4.5
- Total
- 39.5
- Open 39.5
- Model line
- —
- Win probability
- —
- Projected score
- —
- Projected plays
- —
- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
- IOWA −4.5
- open −4.5
- Model
- —
- Total
- 39.5
Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Wisconsin runvs Iowa run Dvs IOWA run DBIGGEST EDGE | 40th+0.05 | 2nd−0.15 | 36 | IOWA +5.4 |
  Iowa passvs Wisconsin pass Dvs WIS pass D | 38th+0.06 | 18th−0.13 | 37 | WIS +3.6 |
| Iowa runvs Wisconsin run Dvs WIS run D | 46th+0.04 | 22nd−0.07 | 31 | WIS +1.5 |
| Wisconsin passvs Iowa pass Dvs IOWA pass D | 93rd−0.05 | 101st+0.06 | 32 | WIS +0.3 |
BIGGEST EDGE · IOWA +5.4
The Iowa run defense vs Wisconsin's run game
Wisconsin gains +0.12 EPA a play on the run (40th); Iowa allows −0.08 (2nd). About 36 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
OffenseIowa
IOWA OFFWhen Iowa has the ball
DefenseWisconsin
WIS DEF- +0.1435thEPA / play21st−0.06
- 44.3%43rdSuccess rate18th37.8%
- 1.2699thExplosiveness8th1.19
- +0.1146thRush EPA / play22nd0.00
- +0.1838thPass EPA / dropback18th−0.01
- 50.3%29thStandard downs SR29th44.9%
- 29.5%98thPassing downs SR5th27.1%
- 3.6413thLine yards50th2.93
- 9.1%7thHavoc rate67th14.5%
- 4.7144thPoints / opportunity36th3.60
- +0.2417thEarly-down EPA / play15th−0.13
- 42.1%59th3rd-down conversion94th41.0%
- 11.9%23rdStuff rate133rd10.7%
- 2.5%17thSack rate130th2.3%
- 75%14thRed zone TD rate28th50%
Wisconsin's defense rates higher in 9 of 15. Widest gap: sack rate (17th vs 130th).
OffenseWisconsin
WIS OFFWhen Wisconsin has the ball
DefenseIowa
IOWA DEF- +0.0950thEPA / play40th+0.01
- 40.2%91stSuccess rate32nd39.3%
- 1.409thExplosiveness41st1.27
- +0.1240thRush EPA / play2nd−0.08
- +0.0693rdPass EPA / dropback101st+0.17
- 46.5%78thStandard downs SR32nd45.2%
- 28.5%113thPassing downs SR50th29.9%
- 3.1879thLine yards49th2.93
- 14.1%84thHavoc rate59th14.9%
- 4.3965thPoints / opportunity35th3.53
- +0.0294thEarly-down EPA / play40th−0.02
- 39.1%77th3rd-down conversion58th36.8%
- 13.1%35thStuff rate58th17.3%
- 2.0%12thSack rate10th8.3%
- 53%111thRed zone TD rate8th44%
Iowa's defense rates higher in 12 of 15. Widest gap: red-zone TD rate (111th vs 8th).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | WISWIS | IOWAIOWA | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 29.4 | 29.0 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 58.8 | 61.7 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 33.3% | 55.1% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | −16.9% | +3.0% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 27.7% | 51.4% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 21% | 12% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 27:41 | 26:23 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 31.1 | Own 30.9 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%