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SAT 4:15 · BTN · PASADENA
Nevada
2-42-4 · 1-2 Mountain West · ATS 4-2
4:15 PM ET
Sat, Oct 31 · BTN
Rose Bowl · Pasadena
WIN PROB
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UCLA
#9 · 6-0#9 · 6-0 · 4-0 Big Ten · ATS 6-0
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Total
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Model line
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Win probability
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Projected score
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Projected plays
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FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
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Model
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Total
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Where the model sees the game

EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED

Where the model sees the game: unit gaps and their model impact
Unit vs defenseOffense gainsOffDefense allowsDefPlaysModel impactImpact
Nevada passvs UCLA pass Dvs UCLA pass DBIGGEST EDGE
130th−0.1612th−0.1532UCLA +14.0
UCLA runvs Nevada run Dvs NEV run D
5th+0.1156th−0.0239UCLA +5.1
Nevada runvs UCLA run Dvs UCLA run D
43rd+0.0430th−0.0636UCLA +1.3
UCLA passvs Nevada pass Dvs NEV pass D
66th0.0083rd+0.0229UCLA +1.1

BIGGEST EDGE · UCLA +14.0

The UCLA pass defense vs Nevada's passing game

Nevada gains −0.05 EPA a play on the pass (130th); UCLA allows −0.03 (12th). About 32 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.

OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.

OffenseUCLA
UCLA OFF

When UCLA has the ball

DefenseNevada
NEV DEF
  • +0.1430thEPA / play79th+0.08
  • 45.5%32ndSuccess rate69th42.1%
  • 1.3070thExplosiveness22nd1.23
  • +0.185thRush EPA / play56th+0.05
  • +0.1266thPass EPA / dropback83rd+0.14
  • 50.1%32ndStandard downs SR74th47.8%
  • 31.6%55thPassing downs SR53rd30.2%
  • 3.6214thLine yards109th3.36
  • 14.4%86thHavoc rate113th12.2%
  • 4.0581stPoints / opportunity97th4.36
  • 65%62ndRed zone TD rate106th69%

UCLA's offense rates higher in 9 of 11. Widest gap: line yards (14th vs 109th).

OffenseNevada
NEV OFF

When Nevada has the ball

DefenseUCLA
UCLA DEF
  • −0.04108thEPA / play4th−0.12
  • 38.3%122ndSuccess rate19th37.9%
  • 1.3069thExplosiveness40th1.27
  • +0.1143rdRush EPA / play30th+0.01
  • −0.05130thPass EPA / dropback12th−0.03
  • 44.3%115thStandard downs SR42nd45.8%
  • 29.5%97thPassing downs SR1st24.9%
  • 3.3644thLine yards27th2.78
  • 13.0%56thHavoc rate13th18.1%
  • 4.0383rdPoints / opportunity108th4.60
  • 53%113thRed zone TD rate77th63%

UCLA's defense rates higher in 10 of 11. Widest gap: pass EPA (130th vs 12th).

Tempo & tendencies

SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE

Tempo and tendencies, Nevada and UCLA, season to date
MetricNEVNEVUCLAUCLAFBS avgFBS
Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral27.633.128.9
Plays per gamePlays per game63.066.565.7
Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral47.7%47.3%47.9%
Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS+0.7%−2.4%−1.9%
Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral42.7%39.7%44.6%
4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations30%19%27%
Time of possessionTime of possession23:4633:1630:11
Avg starting field positionAvg starting field positionOwn 30.3Own 35.0Own 29.8

Neutral = WP 20–80%

All tempo →

Injury report

IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)

Nevada

NO OFFICIAL REPORT% TO PLAYIMPACT
Conference publishes no reportNO OFFICIAL REPORT
Week 8 T-2 report3 OUT FOR SEASON · 2 OUT · 3 QUESTIONABLE

UCLA

NO OFFICIAL REPORT% TO PLAYIMPACT
Conference publishes no reportNO OFFICIAL REPORT
Week 8 T-1 report2 OUT FOR SEASON · 5 OUT

Broadcast

BTN
CrewTBA

Conditions & crew

KICKOFF FORECAST

Temp
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RefereeCrew TBA
RestNEV 14d · UCLA 14dBOTH OFF BYE