Nevada
2-42-4 · 1-2 Mountain West · ATS 4-2
4:15 PM ET
Sat, Oct 31 · BTN
Rose Bowl · Pasadena
WIN PROB
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UCLA
#9 · 6-0#9 · 6-0 · 4-0 Big Ten · ATS 6-0
- Spread
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- Total
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- Model line
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- Win probability
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- Projected score
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- Projected plays
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- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
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- Model
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- Total
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Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Nevada passvs UCLA pass Dvs UCLA pass DBIGGEST EDGE | 130th−0.16 | 12th−0.15 | 32 | UCLA +14.0 |
  UCLA runvs Nevada run Dvs NEV run D | 5th+0.11 | 56th−0.02 | 39 | UCLA +5.1 |
| Nevada runvs UCLA run Dvs UCLA run D | 43rd+0.04 | 30th−0.06 | 36 | UCLA +1.3 |
| UCLA passvs Nevada pass Dvs NEV pass D | 66th0.00 | 83rd+0.02 | 29 | UCLA +1.1 |
BIGGEST EDGE · UCLA +14.0
The UCLA pass defense vs Nevada's passing game
Nevada gains −0.05 EPA a play on the pass (130th); UCLA allows −0.03 (12th). About 32 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
OffenseUCLA
UCLA OFFWhen UCLA has the ball
DefenseNevada
NEV DEF- +0.1430thEPA / play79th+0.08
- 45.5%32ndSuccess rate69th42.1%
- 1.3070thExplosiveness22nd1.23
- +0.185thRush EPA / play56th+0.05
- +0.1266thPass EPA / dropback83rd+0.14
- 50.1%32ndStandard downs SR74th47.8%
- 31.6%55thPassing downs SR53rd30.2%
- 3.6214thLine yards109th3.36
- 14.4%86thHavoc rate113th12.2%
- 4.0581stPoints / opportunity97th4.36
- +0.1351stEarly-down EPA / play46th−0.01
- 51.9%14th3rd-down conversion16th30.6%
- 11.0%15thStuff rate122nd12.4%
- 5.6%89thSack rate43rd6.7%
- 65%62ndRed zone TD rate106th69%
UCLA's offense rates higher in 11 of 15. Widest gap: stuff rate (15th vs 122nd).
OffenseNevada
NEV OFFWhen Nevada has the ball
DefenseUCLA
UCLA DEF- −0.04108thEPA / play4th−0.12
- 38.3%122ndSuccess rate19th37.9%
- 1.3069thExplosiveness40th1.27
- +0.1143rdRush EPA / play30th+0.01
- −0.05130thPass EPA / dropback12th−0.03
- 44.3%115thStandard downs SR42nd45.8%
- 29.5%97thPassing downs SR1st24.9%
- 3.3644thLine yards27th2.78
- 13.0%56thHavoc rate13th18.1%
- 4.0383rdPoints / opportunity108th4.60
- −0.06120thEarly-down EPA / play4th−0.19
- 38.7%84th3rd-down conversion12th29.7%
- 16.5%83rdStuff rate26th20.2%
- 3.0%23rdSack rate96th4.6%
- 53%113thRed zone TD rate77th63%
UCLA's defense rates higher in 13 of 15. Widest gap: pass EPA (130th vs 12th).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | NEVNEV | UCLAUCLA | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 27.6 | 33.1 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 63.0 | 66.5 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 47.7% | 47.3% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | +0.7% | −2.4% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 42.7% | 39.7% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 30% | 19% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 23:46 | 33:16 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 30.3 | Own 35.0 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%