- Spread
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- Total
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- Model line
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- Win probability
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- Projected score
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- Projected plays
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- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
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- Model
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- Total
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Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Bowling Green runvs Western Michigan run Dvs WMU run DBIGGEST EDGE | 137th−0.16 | 51st−0.03 | 35 | WMU +9.9 |
  Western Michigan runvs Bowling Green run Dvs BGSU run D | 56th+0.02 | 134th+0.14 | 42 | WMU +9.2 |
| Bowling Green passvs Western Michigan pass Dvs WMU pass D | 102nd−0.08 | 87th+0.03 | 33 | WMU +2.1 |
| Western Michigan passvs Bowling Green pass Dvs BGSU pass D | 74th−0.02 | 80th+0.02 | 26 | BGSU +0.0 |
BIGGEST EDGE · WMU +9.9
The Western Michigan run defense vs Bowling Green's run game
Bowling Green gains −0.09 EPA a play on the run (137th); Western Michigan allows +0.04 (51st). About 35 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
When Western Michigan has the ball
- +0.0764thEPA / play113th+0.14
- 42.5%59thSuccess rate135th49.0%
- 1.22123rdExplosiveness25th1.24
- +0.0956thRush EPA / play134th+0.20
- +0.1074thPass EPA / dropback80th+0.13
- 47.8%56thStandard downs SR136th53.6%
- 30.3%86thPassing downs SR98th32.3%
- 3.3348thLine yards128th3.51
- 9.6%14thHavoc rate98th13.0%
- 4.2471stPoints / opportunity81st4.16
- +0.1064thEarly-down EPA / play124th+0.15
- 43.6%47th3rd-down conversion21st31.8%
- 11.9%24thStuff rate86th15.3%
- 5.0%72ndSack rate4th9.6%
- 70%39thRed zone TD rate61st59%
Western Michigan's offense rates higher in 12 of 15. Widest gap: explosiveness (123rd vs 25th).
When Bowling Green has the ball
- −0.10130thEPA / play83rd+0.08
- 38.6%115thSuccess rate101st44.6%
- 1.19135thExplosiveness13th1.21
- −0.09137thRush EPA / play51st+0.04
- +0.04102ndPass EPA / dropback87th+0.14
- 45.2%100thStandard downs SR86th48.7%
- 27.5%121stPassing downs SR93rd32.1%
- 2.63132ndLine yards84th3.20
- 15.8%115thHavoc rate97th13.0%
- 3.11128thPoints / opportunity13th3.07
- −0.07125thEarly-down EPA / play60th+0.02
- 40.0%71st3rd-down conversion31st32.9%
- 21.6%128thStuff rate109th13.8%
- 4.8%61stSack rate26th7.3%
- 57%97thRed zone TD rate55th57%
Western Michigan's defense rates higher in 15 of 15. Widest gap: explosiveness (135th vs 13th).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | BGSUBGSU | WMUWMU | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 33.2 | 34.8 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 57.0 | 58.7 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 44.8% | 36.5% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | −6.2% | −11.7% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 39.9% | 34.2% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 16% | 26% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 30:11 | 31:17 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 29.0 | Own 30.5 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%