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SAT 12:00 · CBSSN · KALAMAZOO
Bowling Green
2-52-5 · 2-1 MAC · ATS 3-4
12:00 PM ET
Sat, Oct 31 · CBSSN
Waldo Stadium · Kalamazoo
WIN PROB
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Western Michigan
5-25-2 · 3-0 MAC · ATS 3-4
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Total
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Model line
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Win probability
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Projected score
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Projected plays
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FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
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Model
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Total
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Where the model sees the game

EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED

Where the model sees the game: unit gaps and their model impact
Unit vs defenseOffense gainsOffDefense allowsDefPlaysModel impactImpact
Bowling Green runvs Western Michigan run Dvs WMU run DBIGGEST EDGE
137th−0.1651st−0.0335WMU +9.9
Western Michigan runvs Bowling Green run Dvs BGSU run D
56th+0.02134th+0.1442WMU +9.2
Bowling Green passvs Western Michigan pass Dvs WMU pass D
102nd−0.0887th+0.0333WMU +2.1
Western Michigan passvs Bowling Green pass Dvs BGSU pass D
74th−0.0280th+0.0226BGSU +0.0

BIGGEST EDGE · WMU +9.9

The Western Michigan run defense vs Bowling Green's run game

Bowling Green gains −0.09 EPA a play on the run (137th); Western Michigan allows +0.04 (51st). About 35 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.

OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.

OffenseWestern Michigan
WMU OFF

When Western Michigan has the ball

DefenseBowling Green
BGSU DEF
  • +0.0764thEPA / play113th+0.14
  • 42.5%59thSuccess rate135th49.0%
  • 1.22123rdExplosiveness25th1.24
  • +0.0956thRush EPA / play134th+0.20
  • +0.1074thPass EPA / dropback80th+0.13
  • 47.8%56thStandard downs SR136th53.6%
  • 30.3%86thPassing downs SR98th32.3%
  • 3.3348thLine yards128th3.51
  • 9.6%14thHavoc rate98th13.0%
  • 4.2471stPoints / opportunity81st4.16
  • 70%39thRed zone TD rate61st59%

Western Michigan's offense rates higher in 10 of 11. Widest gap: explosiveness (123rd vs 25th).

OffenseBowling Green
BGSU OFF

When Bowling Green has the ball

DefenseWestern Michigan
WMU DEF
  • −0.10130thEPA / play83rd+0.08
  • 38.6%115thSuccess rate101st44.6%
  • 1.19135thExplosiveness13th1.21
  • −0.09137thRush EPA / play51st+0.04
  • +0.04102ndPass EPA / dropback87th+0.14
  • 45.2%100thStandard downs SR86th48.7%
  • 27.5%121stPassing downs SR93rd32.1%
  • 2.63132ndLine yards84th3.20
  • 15.8%115thHavoc rate97th13.0%
  • 3.11128thPoints / opportunity13th3.07
  • 57%97thRed zone TD rate55th57%

Western Michigan's defense rates higher in 11 of 11. Widest gap: explosiveness (135th vs 13th).

Tempo & tendencies

SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE

Tempo and tendencies, Bowling Green and Western Michigan, season to date
MetricBGSUBGSUWMUWMUFBS avgFBS
Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral33.234.828.9
Plays per gamePlays per game57.058.765.7
Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral44.8%36.5%47.9%
Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS−6.2%−11.7%−1.9%
Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral39.9%34.2%44.6%
4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations16%26%27%
Time of possessionTime of possession30:1131:1730:11
Avg starting field positionAvg starting field positionOwn 29.0Own 30.5Own 29.8

Neutral = WP 20–80%

All tempo →

Injury report

MAC AVAILABILITY · DUE ~SAT · IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)

Bowling Green

MAC REPORT EXPECTED ~SAT (GD)% TO PLAYIMPACT
No report yetMAC REPORT EXPECTED ~SAT (GD)
Week 7 game-day report7 OUT FOR SEASON · 9 OUT · 2 QUESTIONABLE

Western Michigan

MAC REPORT EXPECTED ~SAT (GD)% TO PLAYIMPACT
No report yetMAC REPORT EXPECTED ~SAT (GD)
Week 7 game-day report5 OUT

Broadcast

CBSSN
CrewTBA

Conditions & crew

KICKOFF FORECAST

Temp
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Surface
Turf
RefereeCrew TBA
RestBGSU 14d · WMU 14dBOTH OFF BYE